With the way things are, an uprising is guaranteed to happen within this year or the next and there is no way the communism party of Vietnam would step down peacefully.
What does /pol/ think of the possible scenarios?
Here is a brief summary since international media probably haven't told you shit:
>~54% Government debt to GDP, $155b VND need to be paid in this year. Starting next year Vietnam won't be able to borrow more at low/zero ODA projects interest rate.
>High inflation rate, with the Dongs being 3rd most worthless currency.
>national treasury is pretty much empty while funding is continuously being mishandled to absurd projects like building huge statues or public work projects which cost billions of USD and will wear down in just one or two years.
>social welfare & retirement insurance funding is being siphoned for government spendings and is speculated it won't last a couple more years
>under the debt pressure, the Vietnamese government have gradually increased tax on everything, most notibly a 300% on cars and 200% on gasoline since 2014, they also introduced hundreds of other mandatory fees. The tax burden is all time high, 81.000 domestic businesses went bankrupt in 2015 as the result, creating further problems in future tax income for the government.
>public unrest is rising due to widespread corruption (duh), police brutality (280 people died in police stations without being convicted), daily reports of misuse of authority without any consequences.
>>72312658
>land grab policies that drove thousands of people from their home with petty amount of compensation or none at all.
>non-existent food safety regulation causing cancer death rate to be highest in the world in recent years
>failure to protect Vietnam sovereignty in Spartly and Paracel islands, letting China reinforce occupied islands
All of the above still wouldn't mean shit, the Vietnamese have been brainwashed similar to North Korean that their live is "happy" because there's no war, even if they're living in poverty they should be thankful that the communists liberated them from the French and American. Most Vietnamese are discouraged from discussing politics and instead try drinking their troubles and away, hence why alcohol consumtion is highest in the region.
That is as long as they're able to work their asses off to drink and feed themselves. With the timed bomb that is social welfare & retirement insurance funding being depleted and the most recent development involving Formosa Steel factory in Ha Tinh provincehttp://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/apr/21/vietnam-investigates-mass-fish-deaths-pollution their food bowl is dangerously threatened.
Some 30.000 people living in this region depends on fishery to make a living, Formosa polluting the water left them with no income since start of April. The pollution also raised fear throughout the country causing reduction in sea food product consumption so fishing industry as a whole are affected.
This is the future you chose.
>>72312694
Tourism business have been affected as well with the water being declared unsafe to swim in. 6 scuba divers who approached Formosa waste extraction pipeline have been hospitalized with one died of unknown cause.
The worst part is how the government is handling it, they're doing their best to leave Formosa out of all the reports and instead try to blame mass fishing death on natural causes http://www.reuters.com/article/us-vietnam-formosa-plastics-environment-idUSKCN0XO18L, even linking it to the recent Japan earthquake when it was all proven by independant researchers. Newspaper constantly write false report claiming to be the voice of fishermen living in Ha Tinh region, telling lies to calm the public but instead creating backlash. Small protests and riots have happened in the region past few days but was swiftly put down.
My speculation is, as long as the root of the problem that is the employment of the 30.000 people who are directly affected and millions other to some extend is not addressed, no matter how much they try to suppress the public it will only have reverse effect. But with the current funding issue the Vietnamese government cannot affort to do it. There is also in-fighting within the government itself, with new heads of government being elected only a months ago further complicating the issue.
>source: not my ass. Numbers are from official reports but in reality it may be much worse than that since there is 0 transparancy.
>>72312658
An interesting dump, I'll keep my ear to the ground for the impending debt/austerity crisis
A bump for the info and good wishes that you stay safe through it all
>>72312658
>>72312694
Shit Vietbro, do you have a plan for yourself if SHTF?
we aren't going to bail you out this time
>>72312932
I foresaw this future years ago and already made plans to leave the country in advance. Too bad for my family though because they wouldn't believe me.
Anyway, things will probably turn out like Ukraine with a nation-wide riot splitting the country and intervention from China to save their little communism puppet. I'm sure the US wouldn't stand out to let China have their ways in this shit hole either.
>>72312658
>High inflation rate, with the Dongs being 3rd most worthless currency.
>>72313136
>and intervention from China to save their little communism puppet
I don't think China really cares about other countries being communist or not, they will certainly have a hand in the situation if shit hits the fan but will most likely weight in the direction that endangers the Chinese people and factories in Vietnam the least.
>>72314117
I don't know about current Beijing leadership, but they were definitely interested in Vietnam in the past.
After the collapse of Soviet Union the communist party of Vietnam feared that Western powers may attempt to remove them again. To keep their grip on power, they turned onto the Chinese. In 1990, a secret summit between China and Vietnam were held in Chengdu, where Vietnam yielded to China's demands for their support. Keep in mind, at that point VN-CN relations was still very sour.
The details of this conference are still a secret but in the recent years one of the former editorial director of the Viet propaganda machine wrote a memoir revealing these five terms:
1 – Determine sovereignty of Bach Long Vi island and the Gulf of Tonkin.
2 – Laoshan belongs to Chinese territory.
3 – Determine sovereignty of land and sea border.
4 – Chinese law imposed on Viet Nam
5 – Plans of bringing Chinese military into Viet Nam
The first 4 terms have been carried out in one way or another, subtle and not. You can try to google Chengdu Secret Conference to learn more, but I don't think it's discussed much in English.
Because of the nature of this and censorship efforts, it's difficult to grasp onto concrete information for Western media to write a detailed report but there's a lot of it, including leaked info from within the government when they try to eliminate the opposing faction or certain individual.
>>72312658
Yay! Indo-China War Part II!
I'll go and enlist in the Légion Étrangère, like my grandfather did.
>>72312658
>communism party of Vietnam
n-not real communists.....you know, since they failed.
>>72312658
Sell me some good coffee, cashew nuts and a pretty mail order bride and I might help you
>>72314788
I'm aware that they're not real communist, but that's what they call themselves and it doesn't really matter.
>>72314551
Forgot to mention that this was supposed to be carried out in a 30 years time frame, so there's 4 years left for the 5th term.
>>72314972
I think anon was joking, seeing as communism always fails. Even the fuckers who created it ditched the system. Anyways viet bro i would feel bad but this is the future your country chose. Cant wait for the second vietnam war though, maybe Jim Webb will be vice president.
can you post news articles from your country? I don't care if it's in your language I just want to know if it's actually happening
>>72314117
Of course China doesnt want the west creating another south korea. This would not be good for them politically. Besides china is starting to use smaller countries for slave tier factory work, like the west did to them. Id be shocked if it hasnt already started in vietnam.
