Trump won’t bring manufacturing back. No amount of tariffs and ripping up trade deals will change any of that. The real killer of American manufacturing was autonomation.
The american economy has moved on from manufacturing to a service based economy where a university education or trade certification of some kind are needed to get a good job. The days of working in factories and needing only a high school education are over. The world has moved technologically forward and this has meant that most production now can be done without human labour that can strike and ask for better conditions. A study by the Center for Business and Economic Research at Ball State University found that 85% of manufacturing jobs lost from 2000 to 2010 while only 13% were lost to trade. At manufacturers of completed vehicles, employment fell 32% from 2000 to 2014, despite the recent boom in output—a decline due in part to productivity improvements including automation. This trade has also created many jobs for people as an estimated 5 million US jobs depend on NAFTA.
Beyond that the pay at many manufacturers reaches walmart-tier with the Wall Street Journal reporting that many workers get paid around 10 dollars an hour at starting salary while engineers can expect starting salaries at around Sixty thousand dollars a year. This shows the change in what it means to be middle class that has already come to western world. People should be getting university educations in useful subjects or learning a trade. The global economy has evolved and supporting the openly anti-trade policies of Trump and Sanders is simply looking back to a bygone era that can never be recreated.
Sources:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2016-06-13/truth-about-trade (may not be able to read, not sure if this article is locked behind a pay wall)
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-car-making-boom-not-for-workers-1427154627
http://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/1212/pros-and-cons-of-nafta.aspx
>>80914020
It's not fully automated, you still need workers to do a ton of shit even with robots.
Your theory falls apart because why wouldn't all the robot factories be inside the US if it was just robots? Why did they move offshore?
>>80914407
Cause it's cheaper for businesses you mongoloid
>>80914407
some stuff moved offshore that was cheaper to produce but most of it was overtaken by automation, that is why manufacturing is producing more in the united states with less with or without trade deals there would be a large decline in factory jobs
>>80914020
Also, people think Trump is "anti trade" which is John Oliver tier bullshit propaganda.
Trump wants trade that benefits MURICA that's all. Instead of technocrats signing some awful trade agreement he will go over it with a dozen lawyers a fine tooth comb to jew every shekel he can from that trade deal for Americans.
The biggest thing Trump is offering is the offshore money amnesty. He will reduce the tax to allow that money to come back onshore. Apple desperately wants that money they make around the world back in Silicon Valley, but right now cannot as tax punishment is too high. There's threads about this on hacker news almost every week.
>>80914020
Pay wall, and the fact of the matter is, the manufacturing simply isn't fucking there. Find out where most of the shit you buy comes from and guess what, it's not made here.
The article probably try to use some convoluted way of saying job lost over seas >where actually lost because of automation because hur
And besides, what the fuck is the solution? Bitch about high prices all you want, but the jobs overseas will be brought here with tarrifs.
The fuck do you do about automation? Ban it? Then all your remaining manufacturing will move overseas as well.
At lease if we were to automate the production of more stuff we will be able to bring those factories back here, along with supervisor/technician/engineering jobs and such like.
>>80914020
copy pasta
>>80914632
My point exactly, you flaming faggot disinformation bot.
"These jobs don't exist! Hurrdurr muh automationz"
"They moved offshore cuz cheaper to hire workers"
wait
In 1900, over 40% of Americans worked on farms
they had the same memes
"machinery will soon take every job!"
The fact of the matter is the job market has always been volatile
Be dynamic of perish, it's never been any different
>>80914819
most of the new economy is based off of globalization and trade if we inject tariffs into the market who will buy american cars? Starting trade wars is not good for anyone no matter what /pol think and besides in the wsj article they clearly state that modern day factory workers make jack shit. The future is college educations in the service sector and engineering along with the trades.
>>80914020
The thing is
1. Less than 10% of people are mentally capable of a job requiring good performance in a hard science/math based bachelors
2. There aren't enough jobs in tech sectors for everyone to be employed in STEM fields even if everyone could do them
Ultimately, our system of capitalism will begin to fall apart as all but the most esotericly specialized of labor has literally any value.
>>80915052
You don't even need to be "dynamic"
low skill jobs don't require a degree or commitment.
So when automation takes them the worker can just move to another job since they don't need qualifications.
It's even easier for him to move since he already has experience working a job.
>>80914020
>"m-muh service economy!"
>Verizon, GE and hundreds of other tech companies outsource tens of thousands of SERVICE jobs (tech support, information, etc) every year so they only have to pay brown people dollars a day to work instead of paying Americans a good wage
Tell me leaf, were you born stupid or did your mom drop you as a baby?
Oh wait, you're Canadian so I bet you like dealing with poo-in-loo tech support since they sound like your parents
>>80915134
Trump is going to lower corporate taxes, lower than China. He's competing with Bangladesh/Vietnam.
These globalist countries, do not want to operate in those countries where theft of intellectual property and other problems happen all the time. They would literally jump to open factories in the US so long as they weren't taxed out the ass.
The higher employee salaries are nothing compared to the bribes they have to pay China and Indonesia ect to not have the government shut down their factories.
I guarantee you overnight, Trump would bring about 3 million jobs to the US by dumping that corporate tax. Everybody knows this is true, even Democrats which is why they argue identity politics. "Who will pay for Tyrone to go to Negro Basketball School if we don't tax the evil corporations?"
>>80915052
The labor force participation rate has steadily dropped sense the late 90s, as robots, computers, and the internet make more and more jobs, even in the service sectors, obsolete.
>>80915052
I'm not sure if what you saying, if you are disagreeing only two percent of Americans are employed in agriculture modern day so they were right about the machinery http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS?locations=US
>>80915014
Those jobs don't exist anymore regardless they are obsolete we have made the assembly processes more automated and more has been gained by free trade for the middle class
>>80915231
jobs that don't need qualifications won't be done by humans for long, that's the point
>>80915231
low skill jobs no longer provide in a high tech economy that's why they get paid shit all
Automation doesn't do anywhere near as good a job as you think it does.
>>80915451
>China and Taiwan have cheaper robots than the US
>>80915451
my point is, after machinery took all of those jobs, the job market changed and people needed more skills to get a decent job
the same applies here
>>80915077
Europeans and Americans will buy them. Same with fridges, bikes, whatever the fuck. It worked before, it's not impossible, just more expensive. And I am well aware of the possibility of a trade war, but what about an actual war with china? What the fuck do we do when when a large part of our products come from there? Not saying it will happen, but it is possible.
Even if that doesn't happen, more expensive products is a better outcome then losing all our manufacturing base to developing countries, well until their wages go up and we become competitive again.
And even if automation is the problem, your engineer based economy simply wont work if we keep giving HB1 visas for pajeet. And, guess who wants to fix that? Donald. mother. fucking. Trump.
And basically, that's what I suggested. Even with 100% automation you still need technical and management jobs, but again, you still screw yourself over by importing foreign workers.
OP thinks that chinese slaves with suicide net buildings are operating robot arms in China and Indonesia lmao
>>80915451
You know absolutely shit about manufacturing. I worked Shenzen buyer for Phones/Laptops/Tablets and for SoC in Taiwan into Canada.
I've seen the factories. They are full of people, they are not 100% automated and never will be due to all sorts of reasons.
I've been to FoxConn and have seen how Apple makes their junk. There's thousands of employees in there still.
Even with automation, there's no reason an American corp can't fill Wallmart with dirt cheap fabrics and other shit in a fully automated factory. They don't because taxes are gigantic.
>>80915408
Yeah, basically this too.
>>80914020
thank god for automation and robots. Without them, we'd be in Africa-teir poverty. Imagine if all the food you'd have to get were by hand-- you'd wind up with $1500 sandwiches:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URvWSsAgtJE
What do you guys think, should OPs dad still get to cheat Americans out of the prosperity of their own land, that their ancestors died for, so he can keep dropshipping poisonous Chinese trash, that they steal all the patents for, where they don't let our own tech companies even do business, where they do business on our land tax free?
Or should we put OP and his family to the sword, and make America great again?
>>80916159
BUT, muh automations, and the no jobs exist, and the corporations. Surely these are just androids, everything is automated now nobody actually works in a factory Trump's plan is doomed.
>>80914020
If you want to bring jobs and manufacturing back to the west, you'll need to lower the minimum wage.
Nothing else will work. Tariffs are an attempt to make foreign-made products expensiver, effectivelly making foreign workers less "productive" as they bring less profit per hour worked.
But production is just NOT possible at the current american minimum wage.
>>80914020
The proliferation of socialism post-Industrial Revolution was attributable to automation.
When automation benefits only a select few in society, the mass of unemployed people tend to come with pitchforks demanding their share.
>>80916513
has trump said anything on the minimum wage? hope he does lower it
>>80914020
Better to solve part of a problem than none of a problem.
>>80916649
Even if he lowered the federal minimum wage, state would is already higher than it in most states.
>>80916513
You got it wrong, your jobs shouldn't be occupied by foreigner period. That's how you raise American job prospect and wages, limit the input of foreign worker and foreign products.
>>80915415
All of that is quite possible, but that's taking Tylenol for cancer. Ultimately we will have to address the fact that relatively soon, most people will not be economically useful.
>>80916649
The real solution is to get rid of it.
It creates a negative bubble in jobs, because any job that produces less than the minimum wage simply ceases to exist.
>>80916755
People will always be economically usefull. Nothing will ever change that.
They will just become less and less economically usefull. A portion of the population is less economically usfull than the threshold of the minimum wage, and thus, they can't be employed. Thats what creates unemployment.
>>80914407
Exactly. High automatation level is the reason manufacturing still exist north of the future Trump wall. There so few people, so you can afford yo pay them 5 times more than in third world sweatshops.
>>80914020
> Companies don't need people to manufacture things because robots are cheaper than humans
> Companies move to other countries to use humans because it's cheaper
If it's so cheap to just use robots, then why do they not just stay? Even if they do use robots it's still good for them to stay here at least for the employees who maintain the robots or design new manufacturing processes.
>>80916513
This is a total myth.
Although lowering the min wage is good for a true labor market (provided you do not have unchecked illegal immigration and foreign workers) if you reduced the taxes of companies in the US to China levels they will have no problem paying a real wage just like how Silicon Valley has to pay a real engineer's salary and doesn't hire McChina developer for $2/hr.
These companies want to work in the US, that's where they have legal protections and can sue/jew each other. In China and Taiwan, they are getting hosed by their shit being stolen/counterfeited en mass. There's nothing they can do about it.
Apple wants to move all the money they made selling iJunk out of Shanghai into the valley. They want to build a super plant, where the Chineez govt cannot get access and counterfeit their phones. They've been saying this for years. This is why they don't http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-22/tim-cook-s-181-billion-headache-apple-s-cash-held-overseas and is in Trump's campaign platform as something to shred to bring back jobs.
>>80917053
What happens when a person is so productively incapable there doesn't exist any task that they could perform that produces revenue upon which they could live with even modest comfort? What happens when that threshold reaches 10%, 30%, the majority of westerners?
>>80917410
There will always be something. Policing, for an example. Or social workers. Or babysitting. Or washing dishes. Mowing lawns. Private security. Delivering mail, cash register.
There is honest work to be had, no matter how much of a nigger you are. But when you force the employer to pay 10 dollars for someone to produce 4 dollars, he doesn't hire. Simple as that.
>>80917410
draft them all into military service, then use all that manpower to invade and conquer and enslave some shitty overseas country.
>>80917732
But living on 4, or probably more something like 3-2 dollars an hour is fucking impossible. Libkeks are right about living wages, it's just that the way they want to bring it about is retarded, and their open borders policy is contradictory.
>>80917732
I'm not arguing in favor of raised minimum wages, and I understand your point that a high minimum wage destroys lower end jobs with little, if any, tangible benefit to anyone. But several of your suggestions have already had their human employment considerably decreased by technological development. Mail delivery in particular is automated to an incredible degree, and the advent of affordable, consumer grade riding and self propelled lawn mowers has killed all but high end lawn care services in most of the west.
Naturally something like child care or nursing isn't possible to automate, at least with technology anything like what we have now. But that too is a bridge we will eventually have to cross.
>>80916755
This is true for every country though, not just the US.
University isn't the answer either, for example Ukraine and many other countries have cheap or near free univeristy and it hasn't helped them at all since a ton of students got shitty government type degrees like Lawyer or Political science.
One thing the US does have is medical research which nobody on earth can touch. Canada outsources all of it's testing to Texas. When you get a blood test or something in Canada it's shipped down south for analysis. Because US ivy league schools have such monsterous research grants they are the first to patent the trillion dollar medications that get released every year.
All of this is stupidly taxed so corrupt DC people can hire thousands of technocrat cronies and give it away to Nigeria or Afghanistan.
>>80914020
>2000 to 2010
Most deindustrialization was already over by then
>>80918401
What you fail to understand is that by forbidding the employer to hire for 4 dollars, you don't create a 5 dollars job. You lose a 4 dollars job.
1 dollar a day is better than no dollars a day.
>>80918788
>for example Ukraine and many other countries have cheap or near free univeristy and it hasn't helped them at all since a ton of students got shitty government type degrees like Lawyer or Political science
>tfw have an Ukrainian law degree and working in a Canadian manufacturing sector.
>>80914020
This
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8hNYtKRSnE
>>80916755
Horse shit. If there are fewer worker, there are fewer consumers. It doesn't matter how efficiently a firm can produce products if no one is buying them
>>80917410
Companies start going out of business. Overproduction has been an issue to grapple with as long as there have been economies
