Are the polls skewed?
This time last election 538 had Obama at ~60% and about 40 electoral votes below what he eventually won.
538 is owned by ESPN (weird) which is owned by Disney. Nate Silver is cucked in the first degree.
Nate Silver's gimmick has failed hard past few elections. He even said Trump wouldn't be the nominee. The mainstream media only ever gave him any attention because he said Obama would win and they creamed their pants at the thought.
He should just go back to being a baseball sperg.
>>79889542
The meme is over
>>79889542
Why are you retards throwing your vote away on Gary Johnson?
>>79889876
>>79890281
Princeton election consortium gives basically the same results as Nate Silver. This isn't a case where it's Silver vs. other statisticians; the polls suggest a significant lead for Clinton.
If Trump wins then either there's significant movement between now and election day or the polls are systemically biased against him.
![EV_histogram_today[1].png](https://i.imgur.com/Dr4oXM9.png "EV_histogram_today[1].png")
>>79893669
for reference
>>79889542
Johnson is at 7%?
>>79893321
Cause I want to
>>79889542
The polls and statistics are skewed because they rely upon electoral history. Trump has changed the game and brought in many many many first time voters and will be flipping more Democrats than expected.
That's not to say Trump will win, but it's more like 58% Hillary 42% Trump rather than 77% Hillary 22% Trump
Are you talking abut percentage of electoral votes?
>>79889542
Place your bets now.
>>79895425
percentage of simulated elections won
>>79893321
>why Gary Johnson?
Because he is -actually- fiscally responsible in a way that most Republicans only pretend to be.
Because he's not a theocrat.
Because he has a proven track record of sound fiscal leadership.
Because he's not a false libertarian, he actually upholds the principles of small government and personal responsibility, even when that means pissing off the left and right.
Posting a girl in a Red-White-and-Blue bikini because it makes me feel patriotic.
>>79895727
Are you sure those are her legs?
>>79895727
He's a retard like the majority of libertarians
It is all fixed, no shit. Hillary is chosen to win. Not since JFK have they needed to kill anybody over it. It's just a fixed vote.
>>79895727
>Because he's not a false libertarian
Fampai, he's the man that wants to jail you for not making someone a cake. He went so far as to say he would FORCE someone to do business with those they disagree with. He used jew cake business and nazi wedding as an example.
That is not a libertarian view.
>>79896034
If it happens I'll give up on politics and join a nationalist movement or something.
>>79895912
Nope... I just grabbed the first work-safe pic of a red-white-and-blue bikini and put it up.
>>79895987
Despite your witty, urbane and obviously well-thought-out position, I remain unconvinced that Gary Johnson is anything but the best candidate.
>>79896111
>Fampai, he's the man that wants to jail you for not making someone a cake. He went so far as to say he would FORCE someone to do business with those they disagree with. He used jew cake business and nazi wedding as an example.
lmao, what a cuck faggot.
Oh well, the future of American conservatism is pretty much "Democrats are the real racists/sexists/homophobes/transphobes" 2bh
>>79896152
If that fails, move to one of the Pacific islands. Nothing ever happens there and many of them are completely self sufficient
>>79896160
They look normal from that angle... probably just the lighting
>>79896338
>Democrats are the racists
They've been trying that for years already
>>79896111
keep sniveling, theocrat. So sorry you consider the government upholding the law to be an infringement on your widdow superstition.
If you don't think the law is right, then work to change the law.
>>79896642
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COItiKtHWyg
Fuck off, bootlicker. Don't claim to be a fucking libertarian and hold views that are not libertarian in the slightest. You're no better than the theocrats you hate so much.
>>79896622
>They've been trying that for years already
And if the cuckservative response to Trump has been anything to go by, they'll repeat the same right into their party's extinction
>It's DRUMPF that made spics vote Democrat! I mean surely most Hispanics are God-fearing natural conservatives that hate big government, abortion, and Iran!
>>79895175
> Trump has changed the game
No, he really hasn't.
HE is playing it differently, and its costing him the election.
There is no "4-d chess" going on, hes just a loudmouth who got to far in the election by jacking up the fear rhetoric.
>>79896338
>New Zealand flag
welp, that explains your lack of understanding of American law. You're in good company though, there are lots of stateside theocrats who mistakenly maintain that their right to discriminate is constitutionally protected.
Also --- any butthurt theocrat out there can answer this: If legalizing gay marriage is such a huge imposition on "religious freedom" then tell me, how many gay marriages has the Mormon Church been forced to perform in their temples?
>>79897099
You're not fooling anyone Gary, you're probably the only libertarian that thinks the government should fine or imprison anyone who refuses service
>>79896794
I'm not talking about his antics, I'm talking about his politics. His antics will most definitely cost him the election.
He's successfully made immigration, globalization, and the political establishment the topics of this election. This has rallied millions of first time voters and democrats who feel the party no longer represents the worker's interests. His "silent majority" movement is very real.
The only question is if the movement is big enough to beat Clinton's political machine. I don't think it is but he certainly has a chance. If he does win however, this will be a realignment election. It probably already is a realignment election. There will be others who jump into politics with anti establishment, anti globalist messages.
>>79897252
>>79896111
HOLY FUCKING SHIT
ONE FLAW
ONE
FLAW
HOLY FUCK
I CANT FUCKING DEAL WITH THIS
HE IS SLIGHTLY LESS LIBERTARIAN THAN MY IDEAL CANDIDATE?
HOLY SHIT
I CANT FUCKING BELIEVE IT
LETS VOTE IN TRUMP INSTEAD SINCE HE'S SO MUCH MORE LIBERTARIAN THAN THE LIBERTARIAN CANDIDATE
>>79898085
Yeah, its a major flaw in a LIBERTARIAN candidate.
>>79898085
He has no fucking chance to become president in this or in any other lifetime. Vote for Dumpf or Shillary or stay home.
>google "Johnson"
>Gary Johnson not even on the first page of results
>people think he's a serious candidate
>>79898300
Who the fuck gives a shit? The gay cake thing is a non-problem that gets brought up every now and then by faggots like El Rato. Do i think that businesses should be able to serve and not serve whoever? Yes, but there are so many things more important than homophobic jews baking gay nazi cakes or whatever bullshit gets thrown around. I care more about the economy, I care more about the NSA spying. I care about having a small government. I care about things that neither of the candidates agree with me on, Trump would be fine if he wasn't a big government protectionist idiot, and I certainly wont vote for Hillary, so i'll vote for Johnson, who i mostly agree with.
>>79898541
>He has no fucking chance to become president in this or in any other lifetime
Even if he doesn't become president, voting for him gives a future libertarian (perhaps a purist like all the ancap fags want) a much better chance at getting elected. If 538 is right and he gets 7.7%, the LP candidate next election will have public funding, which will help immensely.
Trump has zero chance of being president, and to be honest it is kind of sad that everyone on /pol/ is realizing this so far in advance. The hype will be nonexistent come November.
I question whether the /pol/ meltdown will even be as hilarious as when Romney lost in 2012.
>>79899146
>Even if he doesn't become president, voting for him gives a future libertarian
This is not worth any effort on my part. Gary Johnson isn't a Ron Paul and the latter did fuck-all for making a libertarian candidate possible.
>tfw a professed socialist had a better chance at becoming president than any libertarian
Fuck me sideways. All I would want at this point would be a progressive consumption tax, which should please everybody, but that's even being fathomed in Washington.
>>79895727
HE IS OPEN BORDERS
>>79899586
So instead you're going to vote for fucking Trump?
Those are pretty good odds considering how crazy it would be if Trump won.
>>79899713
Both candidates are so objectively awful that it's very difficult to truly make a sagacious choice on the merits.
But the liberal buthurt that would ensue if Trumps wins, no matter how unlikely it is at this point, would leave me in ecstasy.
Just imagine it: Democrats on suicide watch, protests on the street crying literal tears of blood, the price of airfares to Canada skyrocketing. This and only this would be worth voting in person in November.
>>79899586
>Gary Johnson isn't a Ron Paul and the latter did fuck-all for making a libertarian candidate possible
Ron Paul did nothing to make a libertarian candidate possible?
Which is why Gary Johnson is climbing in the polls, right?
>>79900109
>make a sagacious choice on the merits
Yeah, it's called "there are more than two candidates"
"Butthurt" is not a reason to vote for a candidate who is actual fucking kindergartner-tier when it comes to almost every aspect of the political economy.
And yes, Hillary is just GWB, so take it or leave it. I'm voting for The Johnson.
>>79900192
>Which is why Gary Johnson is climbing in the polls
Nice meme.
>>79893669
Polls are systemically biased, though. I can't blame anyone who is aggregating the data; its just bad data
>>79900252
>Yeah, it's called "there are more than two candidates"
In that case, I might as well write in Ron Paul, which would only be slightly less pointless.
>"Butthurt" is not a reason to vote for a candidate who is actual fucking kindergartner-tier when it comes to almost every aspect of the political economy.
Again, I have equally valid objections to Hillary, but the inevitable liberal butthurt gives me a sufficiently valid reason for me to vote for Trump.
>I'm voting for The Johnson.
You might as well say you aren't voting, which I would prefer because there would be less sanctimoniousness to your stance.
>>79900252
in the current system there are only two candidates, Johnson will not get 10% of the power because he got 10% of the vote. He will get nothing, the other loser will get nothing and there will be only one winner.
Get the fuck out of here with your participation trophy bullshit and go into the real world.
>>79900371
>predicted to get 7% of the vote by the most accurate election prediction website
>>79900529
The sanctimoniousness is imagined by you, but it comes from your guilt at realizing the inherent philosophical and ethical immorality of the choice you are making.
>>79900596
You do realize Trump is going to lose, right?
>>79900252
(+5 cents have been deposited into your account by Hillary)
>>79898085
Goddamn and I thought shillary voters were stupid.
>>79900728
>The sanctimoniousness is imagined by you
It isn't.
>but it comes from your guilt
lel, the mere fact that you imagined any guilt on my part when I gave you no evidence whatsoever of that is exactly the "sanctimoniousness" I'm referring to. Let's see you squirm out of this one.
>>79900754
>damage control
>>79900874
See: >>79900889
The one who made any claims of a moral position first and foremost was none other but yourself. Guilty conscience checked.
>>79889542
what they call "winning" is a joke
they laugh about it
they don't even need to pretend anymore but they keep on
>>79896642
I can agree that the government should uphold the law, but there should not be a law that requires cake makers to bake cakes for gays or anyone for that matter (although it'd be better for business to make cakes for all). That is what he meant by that is not a libertarian view. The main libertarian view on this topic is that we should have freedom of association
>>79900949
>Guilty conscience checked.
That doesn't logically follow. Merely because I considered your approach sanctimonious does not imply I had a guilty conscience, while your baseless assumption that I had to have a guilty conscience is a fairly strong indication of sanctimoniousness on your part, as the premise that anyone who would vote for Tump must have a guilty consciousness is absurd.
>>79889542
They are saying Trump wouldnt win the republican nominee since the beggining of the Campaign.
Do not fall for the poll meme.
Johnson has got to leave. If there was no Johnson, Trump would be winning.
>>79901632
Johnson is doing so well because Trump is such loser and everyone voting for Johnson knows it.
>>79900192
To be fair, Gary Johnson is climbing in the polls because people are coming to realize how terribly corrupt and... well, for lack of a better word, terrible the major parties are
>>79900596
This goes to everyone saying voting libertarian is pointless. Next election cycle the more votes a minor party gets the more money they will get during the next election. That is how it works. If Johnson gets enough votes he will be considered to be allowed onto the debate stage with the other candidates. There are other benefits to voting minor party when theres a candidate getting as many votes as Gary Johnson is
