IN THE END IT DOESN'T EVEN MATTER
Hey remember that time that polls put Remain in Europe between 5-10 points ahead of leave but leave ended up winning anyway? Good times.
Also:
>two cents have been deposited in to your account.
>>79305366
Those numbers are such bullshit - hilldog wins dade county and Trump wins the other sixty six counties - screencap this
s a g e
>>79305366
TRUMP BTFO
/POL/ IN TEARS
>poll conducted about twitter and facebook
>Hillary wins
>poll conducted by classical public survey
>Trump wins
And if we remember Brexit, 70% of the young people, the kind of people that use social media all fucking day, didn't go to vote.
>>79305366
Keep the polls low..i want conservacucks to start to fear that hillary could be president
>>79305366
NEVER TRUMP
>>79306497
wooww
guess im #TrumpPatroll now
>>79306497
>British and American polling is the same
This is a Shy Tory effect waiting to happen.
>>79307252
explain how they are different
>>79307155
KEK IS WITH US
NEVER TRUMP
>>79307109
Thank god Millenials are lazy as fuck.
>>79307456
American polling is far different and more accurate.
During the primary the polling was accurate in most states.
Pollsters have primaries, general elections, midterms, etc. to adjust their models and methodology.
We also have exit polls from other elections to predict what the turnout might be for 2016.
>>79307594
Also Brexit polling was still accurate just a week or so prior to the vote.
Most polls still were within the margin of error of a brexit win.
>>79307109
i can never not love long legged spurdos
they just bring me so much joy.
>>79307594
>American polling is far different and more accurate.
how?
get into details in how their methods vary
>During the primary the polling was accurate in most states.
Not true
we saw massive outlier polls (or potentially manufactured ones) in multiple states most notably Florida and Idaho.
>>79305366
I LIVE IN TAMPA FL
our state will be close
we have alot of spanish and poors to vote democrat however we have old people and lots of them and they LOVE trump and also 3 gen Cubans from before Castro came over and are all conservative
Florida went blue the last election but trump will have Florida i can feel it in my native bones
>>79305366
Any poll that has the (L) candidate at 9-10% has seriously fucked up their sampling.
Johnson will be lucky to break 1% this year.
I live in South Florida.
I have only met 2 Hillary supporters. During the time of the Florida primary, I only saw Trump signs while driving through Boca Raton and Coral Springs.
I believe the majority of people who picked Hillary in that poll were pushed to do so and are truly undecided.
I have spoken to so many undecided people that a debate could formulate their entire opinion of one candidate.
>>79305366
>GQRR
pic related
>>79305366
>implying johnson will get more than 1%
>he has a gun control VP
I voted for Johnson in 2012, not making that mistake again
t. florida
>>79306497
What's in that dogs ear?
>>79307853
>get into details in how their methods vary
We look at the turnout from 2004, 2008, 2012, etc. (thanks to exit polls) and we attempt to draw trends from them
The biggest problem w/ the brexit polling was predicting turnout and still it was within the margin of error for most polls
>polls
>reliable
Choose one.
>>79308155
The how to be a biased business
A lot of gun owners in Florida, I think once they understand how important nominating supreme court justices is, they will suck it up and vote Trump.
>>79306788
Global rule 7, enjoy b&
>>79307109
>fuck facts and data lll just make shit up
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/
>>79307456
>a referendum countrywide that has no past basis for comparison
Vs
>a regular election with reliable past trends going back decades to supplement state-by-state and national polling
I'll wait here for your apology.
>>79305366
lol Johnson is not getting 9 percent. Poll is trash.
>>79308099
Who gives a fuck, its Florida. Nothing but old white people, no shit you saw a lot of Trump signs.
>>79308295
>We look at the turnout from 2004, 2008, 2012, etc. (thanks to exit polls) and we attempt to draw trends from them
But if we consider how turnout has changed from last primary to this one then these polls are garbage
They have consistently higher numbers of registered democrats than republicans, while if we look at turnout and compare to 12 or 08 republican turnout is through the roof while dems are lower than either year
And if we take exit polling data into account why is the fact that 25-35% of bernie supporters say they will not vote for hillary?
Aren't we not taking any of the things you claim makes our predictions more accurate into account?
>The biggest problem w/ the brexit polling was predicting turnout and still it was within the margin of error for most polls
they had an moe of 10%+?
that seems unlikely....
>>79305366
>Daily reminder that young people take polls and don't vote
>Daily reminder that old people vote and don't take polls
>Daily reminder that Florida is full of old people
It's gonna be anuda shoah for Clinton.
>>79308851
>reliable past trends
>making predictions based on how people voted 4 years ago
>in an election year completely different from typical partisan politics and focused on insurgency
ill call your parents and apologize to them for making their autistic son upset
>>79308226
Implying the flaw in Johnson's campaign is one of his VP's policies and not the fact that you're literally throwing your vote away. In fact, what you're really doing is casting a vote for the opposite of your views, because you're taking one away from the candidate who's side you lean toward and helping his opponent.
Daily reminder that (((polls))) are shit and kike propaganda
>>79309762
thank you greatest ally
>>79305366
T. A study adjusted to the 'voting environment' by using an adjusted number of democrats and republicans in order to match what they think the turnout will be (normally between 10-15% more registered democrats then republicans)
"THE DISHONEST MEDIA LIES"
Hang the lugenpress from lamp poles and retake reality from people who seek to adjust it by controlling the context we perceive.
>>79309654
You're fucking retarded and know jack shit about how to approach statistical analysis of a election cycle.
Source: everything you've written in this thread
>phone polls
I understand it's cheaper and theoretically as random as you can get but people don't pick up calls on numbers they don't know on their cell phones, same with landlines (if you don't block political robocalls at all). Only the stupidest people pick up political robocalls and then, after realizing that it is a political pollster, don't hang up but actually go through the questionnaire.
>>79307456
Well for one thing, FL doesn't have the same demographics like GB.
>>79309654
You do realize your counter-argument basically amounts to
>muh feels
Right? Stop embarrassing us.
It all returns to nothing,
>>79307728
They are gondolas.
Have a treat, my leaf friend.
>>>/wsg/1140073
I want Shit Reddit Says to leave
Kek, pol's retardation is so transparent
When the polls are in their favor they agree, when they're not they come up with every excuse in the book.
>>79305366
This Johnson meme is hilarious.
All of these "polls" are listing him around 9-10%. Id be surprised if he made it over 1% on actual election results.
>>79305366
O H
L O O K
I T ' S
A N O T H E R
P A I D - F O R
S H I L L A R Y
R O C K E F E L L E R
C L I N T O N
T H R E A D
P L E A S E
L E T
T H I S
B A I T
S L I D E
T H A N K
Y O U
A N D
H A V E
A
N I C E
D A Y
!
>>79312993
Please find one case of one of us changing our opinion because of a poll.
>>79305366
New poll out today has Trump ahead of Hillary by 5 points.
JUST KEK MY SHIT UP SENPAI
>>79314693
This.
But this is how it goes. The people who support Hillary (i.e. the establishment elites) have control over the pollster. They either outright own them, or have the connections to fabricate the numbers to support their narrative that Trump is losing. We all know that's false, no one likes Clinton.
So if somehow there is a poll that comes out showing that Trump is ahead that spells trouble for Clinton, because Trump should not come out ahead in these polls that are controlled by the establishment.
>>79308511
enjoying it just fine douche bag
>s a g e
