According to Nate Silver analysis (the guy who was right on 49 of 50 states when obama was elected) Trump has only a 20% chance to become the next US President.
>pic related
What did he mean by this /pol/?
Trump stumped by statistics, jackmate
Nate Silver? You mean the guy who said Trump had 0% chance of winning the primary?
>>79282373
Do you know WHY Silver said that? He admitted that he IGNORED THE POLLING DATA.
Now that we're in general election mode and all of the polls have Hillary ahead by large margins, that's why Silver only gives him a 20% chance.
>>79282769
Ah I see, he was only pretending to be retarded
>>79282373
He started him at as low as 2%, but later apologized and emphasized that that was merely a guess that they came up with before they had any data.
After New Hampshire, he gave Trump 50/50 odds, and after Nevada they said he'd probably win it. Those were real predictions based on statistics, like OP's image.
>>79282373
I think he is pretty accurate when it comes to forecasts for the federal states. His method is pretty good and worked nearly flawless the last time.
>>79282259
>jackmate
what?
>>79282259
(((Nate Silver)))
Yeah. This guy isn't an establishment shill or anything...
>>79283020
isnt this the aussie-tier shitpost version of "checkmated" ? I cant keep up with them in shitposting
Nate Silver literally weeping ITT
https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/05/09/our-fictional-pundit-predicted-more-correct-primary-results-than-nate-silver-did/
>>79283043
>>79283043
>This guy isn't an establishment shill or anything
I agree with you but people listen to his forecast and if they get the impression that Trump cant win why should they go out and vote for him then?
Seems fair with the current polls. Let's see what happens after the convention.
I don't take this Silver guy seriously.
First of all, his model has one great weakness. It is based on polling data.
I can't even explain how retarded this approach is.
Polls can't factor in 3 important factors.
1. Voter turnout
2. Shame factor
3. Black swan
Yet this guy "calls" the election, basically saying that Clinton has a 80 % chance of winning? Please.
>>79284134
He's trying to be more objective (supposedly) by looking at the polls. He ignored the polls and largely cast on "polls plus" which is polls plus
>muh feelings
E.g. areas where Trump had a significant lead in the primaries in the polls, nate's polls plus would often have cruz winning.
That being said it's kind of early to tell with polls given GOP & Dem conventions haven't occurred yet and we have months until November.
>>79282259
This shit is going to get revised harder than our GDP figures. Mid way through the first debate Hilldog is going to have to get carried off the stage after being mentally mauled by the Don.
>>79282259
shit. i ab #cruzmissile now
Uh 20% isn't really that bad. I'll take it.
>>79284134
He also collects metadata like social construction and minorities not only the data from the polls, this makes him pretty accurate. That he has no knowledge about politics and is shilling for hillary is proven but he knows how to do his statistics.
>>79284509
>pretty accurate
>was consistently wrong all year
Okay
>>79282259
OP is a newfag, /pol/ has been shitting on Nate Silver for the past 10 months for being wrong all the time in the primaries and being a salty fuck.
In before
>b-but it's different now
>>79282259
How about the guy who has predicted each US presidential election flawlessly for the past 30 or so years saying that Trump has a 97% chance to win?
>>79286489
You mean albus dumbledore? He is dead now I think
>>79282259
Trump has a very low intelligence. Think about it: he pissed off the following huge groupes of voters: Mexicans, Muslims, everyone who isn't white, everyone who is a liberal cuck. Don't tell me he had to. If he was really smart, he would gain votes by all means, but clearly he just ain't smart to manipulate people. Hillary does nothing, she just keeps quiet (ever noticed that?) and waiting for Trump to dig his own grave. Stupid.
>>79282259
Nate Copper is a nerd in the truest sense of that word. His powers of prediction end when things actually get unpredictable, like both the GOP Primary and the coming GE.
>hurr he predicted Obama's win
Great job, he had 2 boring, predictable, safe candidates running against one another so he did some simple math and it turned out to be correct.
Hillary vs Trump will NOT be 2 boring, safe candidates against each other. It will be a shit-flinging contest of proportions not before seen in US history. No poll will mean a goddamn thing until at least late September and even then something can still turn.
You know, if Trump actually wins, there's going to be lawsuits out the ass on these liberal news anchors/channels/sites for promoting false advertising.
Brexit had something like a 15 percent chance of happening the day before the vote.
Also, we're still months away
>Nate "stop caring about trump pls" Silver
>Georgia
>Red
>Arizona.
>Leaning blue.
I call horseshit, even PPP is giving Trump the edge there. The only poll with Clinton leading is OH Predictive Insights, a literally who poll.
>>79287625
Georgia is usually red, how old are you?
>>79282259
>Arizona
>light blue
Kek, this state will always be red. Thing is people here don't turn out to vote until election day, so primary data is not accurate
>>79287017
>following huge groups of voters
>muslims
maybe in your arab shithole, shlomo
>>79287881
Doesn't change the fact that he wont win.
>>79287017
I work with many central & south americans; this is 100% false.
I know someone who overstayed their visa and was illegal for a few years (hes a citizen now) and he said "At a certain point you cant let more people in". Hes voting for trump, my brazilian side of the family is voting trump.
>>79287017
Except muslims are a smaller minority than faggots in the US.
And Mexicans are illegal and can't vote.
>>79282259
Nate Silver also said Trump had a 2% chance of winning the GOP nomination anon...
>itt: statistics is wrong
