https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/748220444231213057/photo/1
> 80% chance of Clinton winning
> /pol
> btfo
LMAOOOOOOOOO
>half the country votes for both
>hillary still wins because fptp is fucking retarded
who the fuck thought this system up, stupid cunt
>>79191963
>Ben Casselman
Probably changed it from (((Kesselman))).
>>79192087
>>half the country votes for both
Where the hell do you get this idea? There's a very good chance Hillary will beat Trump by double digits in the general election.
The problem with Trump is that white males are not the only people who vote.
>FL
>OH
>PA
>$hillary
Don't think so m8
>>79192446
>The problem with Trump is that white males are not the only people who vote
That's the problem with western society not Trump.
>>79192734
I mean, sure, but that's Trumps problem getting elected.
>>79191963
>2012
>Nate Silver predicts an Obama victory
>/pol/: "NATE SILVER IS A JEWISH LIAR LOOK AT ALL THESE ONLINE POLLS ROMNEY WILL WIN IN A LANDSLIDE!"
can't wait for history to repeat
Colorado is actually split, and might be leaning Trump
PA is tied
It's just completely retarded to think NC leans Clinton. I have no idea where that meme started
But again, this is just a bait thread
Let's all Tweet to this faggot to tell him how dumb he really is
>>79191963
>Trump will never run
>Trump will never breach 15%
>Trump will never win New Hampshire
>Trump will never release his financials
>Trump will never breach 25%
>Trump will never win SC
>Trump will never breach 35%
>Trump will never breach 50%
>Trump will never reach 1237
>Trump will never recover after Wisconsin
>Trump will never win unbound delegates
>Trump will never recover after Colorado
>Trump will never be the nominee
>Trump will never predict BREXIT
------------------
You are here
------------------
>Trump will never pivot to the GE
>Trump will never beat Clinton in swing states
>Trump will never get 270
>Trump will never be POTUS
>Trump will never build the wall
>Trump will never block risky shitskins
>Trump will never deport spics
>Trump will never win a second term
>Trump will never bring back manufacturing jobs
>Trump will never abolish Common Core
>Trump will never renegotiate our trade deals
>Trump will never MAGA
>Trump will never MEGA
>Trump will never colonize Mars
>Trump will never colonize the Milky Way
>Trump will never deport the xenos
>>79191963
Truth is, is Hillary wins, and the country goes downhill thanks to the inmigration policies, expect Trump to be elected in the next elections by a huge margin of people. He will win, one way or another, sooner or later.
>>79193312
Lol, immigration isn't hurting this country at all.
>>79193145
Nate kept constantly saying Trump would be out of the primary every day
He's just predicted 2008 and 2012
It's just blatant Gambler's Fallacy to trust this guy
>>79191963
Bruh I have more reliable source
http://primarymodel.com/
>>79193407
Not right now. Just wait.
>>79193215
>>79193601
Nice straw man, faggot. I never claimed Hillary would be indicted.
Don't you have some rock to chimp out over or some shit?
>>79193566
What are you saying? Can you be a bit more explicit?
can't wait until nate gets all 50 states correct and all you trump fags hang yourselves after the election. it will be glorious
>>79191963
This same cuck said that Cruz was going to win and look what happened.
>>79192087
the model has clinton winning 48.4% of the vote and trump winning 41.1% of the vote
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
>>79191963
Brexit was given a 20% chance the week of the vote
>>79193407
Name a country that's less than 40% white or Asian that is successful.
Notice how all the worst, most poorly-educated states on this map are red.
Even the worst candidate of all time can't pursuade them to do the right thing.
>>79191963
We warned you fucking scrubs
>>79191963
One of the most interesting things about reality is that there aren't just people who consistently call it right, but people who also consistently call it wrong, and if you do the opposite of them, you usually come out ahead.
It's like the Seinfeld episode where George realizes he's a failure, and does the complete opposite of what he does, and winds up a success. There is some truth to this.
I've accepted this election is a lost cause.
I'll support a winnable Republican next cycle and won't make the same mistake I did this cycle. We really fucked ourselves letting Hillary in office.
I'll support Cruz or Rubio next cycle.
>>79194381
>http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
The map is pretty much the best possible outcome for Hillary, which is still far fetched
>>79194715
why u little
>>79193736
I can only tell you this. When a country accepts people from other culture in which violence is glorified/not taken care of in some way, the disruption of society and public unrest is inevitable. It's like taking a wild ape and putting it inside a cage with apes who were "domesticated".
>>79191963
wow, almost like when it was predicted the UK would stay in EU with 90% assurance
>>79191963
>florida
>blue
haha i don't think i've ever even met a Hillary supporter here and i do travel around a lot to college towns
Polls are actually fucking bullshit. Trump is going to win, also Florida is a Trump state. Atleast it is in SFL.
>>79194971
>the US will make a huge mistake after watching the UK make a huge mistake!
Yeah, nah.
>>79194983
jews in miami, blacks in tampa/jax/orlando
cubans probably hate trump too. and i dunno if central florida is populated enough
>>79192552
>Implying the God Emperor is going to win any demographic besides white males
>>79191963
wtf i hate trump now
>>79195133
I live in Tampa I still have never spoken to one. Cubans hate illegals as well so she won't get by on the he is deporting them push.
>>79195058
>Florida is a Trump state. Atleast it is in SFL.
No, and hell no.
>>79195058
>>79194983
im in florida, please describe how this is a Trump state.. help me believe
>>79194512
Irrelevant. Our undesirables are mostly native-born. Changing the immigration laws is closing the barn door after the bulls have already gotten in.
>>79195332
because it's not a Hillary state
>>79195058
>florida is a trump state
>>79191963
>Boy am I glad the general election is in July instead of November, where things could be drastically different. /pol/ irrevocably blown the fuck out!
t. $hill
>>79195503
>johnson
>anything above 0.5%
lel
>>79195503
anything that shows Johnson even getting 1% is a garbage poll
>>79195503
holy shit the election is over
>>79195245
i dont think the amount of people you speak to is fully representative of florida as a whole
I don't take this guy Silver seriously.
1. The debates haven't even started yet he thinks he can call the election results already.
2. He doesn't take into consideration that young people, minorities don't vote. Obama rallied blacks but Hillary simply doesn't have the same pull factor as Obongo. The democrats will have trouble rallying its voter base this election.
3. Ignores the shame factor,
4. Black swan. Literally anything can happen before the elections start. Just look at Brexit and the murder of Mrs Cox, that almost helped Bremain to win the referendum.
It's too early to make any reliable prognosis, to think you can is just ridiculous.
>>79195425
>shit's bad already, doesn't matter if it gets worse
>>79195154
That's enough for both PA and Ohio.
>>79193145
He's also been wrong on Trump every step of the way. Even if he has a history of being correct, he also has a history of being completely incorrect when Trump is a factor.
>>79195924
you mean just like all polls?
>>79195927
>I don't take this guy Silver seriously
>correctly predicted 99/100 states the last two elections
>>79193215
>I'm a nigger
>>79196252
>reading polls is hard
>>79191963
>Arizona
>Going blue
I don't think so, family.
>>79196252
this what trump racists actually believe
It's not too late Drumpfkins, you can always cast your vote for Bernie and get Shillary BTFO
>>79196252
>100 states.
>>79196252
Silver said Trump had a 2% chance of becoming the Republcan nominee
Ben (((Kesselman)))
>>79195425
>irrelevant
Answer the fucking question
it's a shame that donald trump doesn't have a long precedence of defying all expectations. clearly everything will go exactly as expected in the remaining months because if there is anything about donald trump it is his predictability. elections over, guys.
>>79196977
>last *two* elections
>50 states in the US
>math is hard for trump supporters
>>79195946
It's getting worse from the inside. Propose a wall for that.
>>79196981
Yeah I don't get it people act like he is some prediction master when all he did was pick the usual democratic states and then picked the swing states that would go to Obama because he was more camera savey than all of his opponents. Problem here is he's in denial that Trump will do well because it goes against all of his shekel teachings but the same camera saveyness is going to lead Trump to a win.
>>79196252
>correctly predited 99/100 states the last two elections
And this guy's model have called every election since 100 years back.
http://fortune.com/2016/02/26/stony-brook-professor-trump/
AND I've already explained this before. Let me do it again. Predicting the outcome of an election when both candidates are uncontroversial is easy, because you have reliable data to work on. But this is not the case with Trump. He's controversial, people feel a certain amount of shame and fear and are afraid of openly voicing their support of him, this means his support will be heavily underestimated in polls that uses telephone interviews.
>>79197337
And he's Jewish which means a lot more than most people realize both in academia and in media.
>>79191963
trump got more primary support than McCain and Romney,
and those were both relatively close races with Obama, they are coming out with this shit because they are scared, they want to project a strong victory for the democrats but Hillary is extremely hated by both young democrats (which won obama the presidency twice) and most of the Independents who often vote republican.
all of these biased sample polls and predictions are nothing more than propaganda.
>>79197581
let me guess, this is one of those retroactive models isn't it? lmao
"When you design a model, you use past data to predict the future. Since you've used past data, of course it's going to pick the correct winners for the elections that the original data is based off of. It's not accurate to say that it's predicted those elections. It's only accurate to determine which elections it's predicted after the model was designed.
In this case, it looks like it's about as accurate as a coin flip."
>>79196781
I don't think you guys realize how many legal Latino voters are both in Florida and Arizona. Trump has irrepairably fucked both the black and Latino demographics, and a lot of people who otherwise wouldn't vote or care about this election suddenly do care.
Do you know how BAD your candidate has to be if he's turning traditionally red states into blue ones?
It shows a severe lack of foresight on Trump's part to say all the shit that will win him the Republican primaries but lose him a general election, and it shows a severe lack of foresight on the voting Republican's part that they voted for someone whose policies and ideas couldn't possibly win a general election.
Let it be a lesson to you guys to think ahead for a change.
>>79197337
2 of those 100 predctons were that Alabama would go to McCain then Romney. And 2 more that Massachusetts wold go to Obama.
Only 9 states are swing states. The rest are solid blue or red. That means that Slver literally had to do nothing to call 82 to the states in 2008 and 2012. 82 of Slver's genius 100 predictions would be like predicting the sun would rise tomorrow.
>>79198123
Cubans=/= regular latino voters
>>79191963
Brexit had worse odds than that on the day of the vote.
>>79198123
It's us that are thiinkng ahead not the GOP. Pandering to minorites won't get the GOP their vote. The only way niggers and beaners would vote for a Republican is if Republicans are promisng them more free sht than Democrats.
>>79198123
Cubans want a wall too, they hate mexicans more than whites.
>>79198416
cubans are only 1/3rd of Florida hispanics, and they're becoming more democratic. 2012 Obama won FL cubans 49-47. don't think your boy Trump is gonna help.
>>79198654
Nobody is telling you to pander to them. There's an enormous difference between pandering to someone and not saying stupid shit that will alienate them, their families, and all their friends.
Do you see the distinction?
>>79191963
ive never met a person who is voting for hillary. how is she winning?
oh because of the black vote? how is <15% of the population gonna make her win? because of the dyke vote? add another <2% of the population.
so now what do you have? >17% of the population voting for hillary clinton. keep in mind how hard pressed you can be for even finding someone who wants to vote for hillary in the first place. think about that, and tell me how there could possibly be an 80% chance of hillary winning? it makes no sense
>>79198801
Trump is offerng the GOP the one and only chance to save their party. They don't have the courage to do what he's doing.
As for me I don't give a fuck about the GOP. I'm after 100% racial polarisaton in politics. I want the Democrats to become the party of non whites. And minorities the Democrats pck up is fine by me.
>>79198753
Of course Obama would win them. Romney was a big business fucktard. Trump is not Romney they speak of entirely different politics.
>>79196977
50 x 2 = 100
>>79198123
> don't think you guys realize how many legal Latino voters are both in Florida and Arizona.
I don't think you realize how many legal Mexicans actually agree with Trump's platform. Just about 80% of the Mexicans I know here are voting for him, because they don't want their worthless cousins weighing down the market with their cheap labor. Arizona will stay red, if not be more red this election than ever. We don't let our illegals vote like California, so there's no worry there.
Let it be a lesson to you, that you shouldn't presume to assume things about states that you don't understand politically, or don't even live in.
>>79199227
the obama coalition. women+hispanics+blacks.
that adds up to 76% of the electorate, based off of 2012's numbers.
https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/
>>79193547
>http://primarymodel.com/
Neat site. Certainly like their prediction.
>>79199756
Who honestly thinks Hillary can pull the crowds Obama did? Like who seriously thinks that because I'm going to claim nobody.
>>79195133
>implying blacks vote
>implying cubans vote
Same fucking odds of bretix all these meme polls are wrong. There was a poll today that has then dead equal today with out 3Rd party people running and the excitement is on the Republican side.
>>79198109
I disagree
Silver's model uses polls. That means he doesn't factor in variables that are of dramatic importance in elections. Let me give you a few examples:
1. Voter turnout
2. Shame factor
3. Black Swans
Norpath on the other hand uses election results. He factors in all previously mentioned variables, even black swans. His model is superior to Silvers.
I don't get your "hurr durr retrospective..." mumbo jumbo. I think it's perfectly correct to say that his model has predicted every election the past 100 years.
>>79198473
Shame factor and different voter turnout patterns will have decisive importance this election. Not to mention that there is a real possibility of another terrorist attack .
>>79191963
OK
>>79191963
>Oregon
>Blue
>Washington
>Blue
>Iowa
>Blue
>Arizona
>Blue
>North Carolina
>Blue
>>79199756
Eh, women didn't vote on Obama more than Romney. Or do I remember this incorrectly? :-/
>>79200216
>shame factor
lol trump supporters aren't hiding their love for trump
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-supporters-probably-arent-lying-to-pollsters/
>>79200471
Obama won women by a large margin. Romney just barely edged out Obama with white women. Romney won 70+% of the white men vote.
>>79200677
The avid fans aren't but there are plenty of silent voters as well.
>Oregon
>Clinton
I've heard people in even fucking Portland say they'd rather die attempting to end her than they would ever consider voting for her.
>>79194983
Orlandofag here, I work with several people who are shamelessly voting for that vapid cunt.
I even pointed out how she's a criminal and they just shrugged it off.
>>79192734
I loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooove the mantoddler tears about this one issue.
>>79191963
>twittter poll
might as well use salon or tumblr polls desu
>>79200882
>lol at least she is better than a racist XD
>>79200359
>Oregon or Washington
>Ever voting red
>ever
These polls are meant to frighten the GOP into installing one of their prolapsed boipussy candidates.
>>79200987
They never mentioned the racist thing, they talk about her and her husband's experience.
Doing what other than getting Americans killed, letting national secrets get stolen, and fucking interns I don't know.
>>79193601
Fucking smelly ass Spaniard only thing good about your shitty country is Ibiza.
>increasingly nervous man
>>79201186
They may as well just make it about racism if they're going to ignore all that shit. LBJ was experienced too so I guess they'd also vote one of his boys in.
>>79201098
Trump is doing extremely well in Oregon mostly because all the Bernouts are mad as fuck their candidate lost and Oregon has an extremely small amount of niggers.
>>79201442
what is with this "oregon will go red" meme? it is because one shitty poll had him up 2%? lmao
>>79201186
>>79200882
You're just watching your country turn into the third world. It's shocking at first that someone so overtly corrupt could get so close to the presdency. But consider the demographic that got Hillary nominated.
>>79200216
How can you "predict" something that happened in the past R-tard?
Hey look at that, my prediction model just accurately predicted the results of every single major league baseball game to have been played up until yesterday. What a good prediction I made
Nate Silver made what's called an "advance prediction". It's a scientific prediction, designed to be testable. He was wrong about the primary (he admits he didn't even use polling in his model for the primary)
But here's the thing about world class statisticians and economists. They might make mistakes, but they never do it twice. /pol/ is going to get absolutely buttdevastated on election day, and I'm going to shitpost every day all day for a full year about it afterwards.
Because fuck you. You deserve to know that not only aren't you a part of the "silent majority" but that you've actively participated in an echo chamber full of confirmation bias and you'll never amount to anything more than you are right now
>>79193215
>Trump will never go back in time and fuck OPS fat whore mom and erase him from existence.
>>79191963
Bernie Sanders would have smoked the tits off of Clinton if we didn't have all those retards voting for the orange man
>>79192087
We're approaching levels of alt-right butthurt that shouldn't even be possible
>>79194512
Chile.
>>79202110
Nate Silver's recent prediction is pretty good odds for Trump since they're over ten times higher than Nate's odds for Trump becoming the Republican nominee. Nate predicted Trump had a 2% chance of becoming the nominee.
>>79191963
You're right, OP. There's an 80% chance of Hillary winning something alright.
A ticket straight to jail.
![mad+cat[1].jpg](https://i.imgur.com/JIn2j4n.jpg "mad+cat[1].jpg")
>trusting polls
>>79201981
Do you live here? I move all around Oregon frequently because of my work and I have not met even a single person remotely inclined to support Hillary.
Nobody I met has either when I've asked, and I ask often.
I do, however, frequently hear people say that they would prefer a homeless man instead of her, say that Trump looks like a gift from God compared to Hillary, and even say that they'd never let her into this state.
When Obama brought his nigger monkey ass down here after that shooting to cry about muh gun-laws he left early because a lot of people were threatening to kill him. They didn't show that on the news but I was there. He almost got hit by some thrown trash. This is a very quiet state and almost any news that comes out of it is fabricated horse-shit.
KVAL got a bomb threat due to their constant shilling for Hillary and I've heard sheriffs all the way from Portland to Coos Bay say they'd never enforce her authority.
>>79202353
Neat joke :^)
>>79202912
>anecdotal evidence will meme trump to the white house!
Its fine to have threads like these, but just keep in mind that there hasn't been a single presidential debate. Trump will dominate these. It may be enough or it may not be, but don't think that the polls are stuck like this.
>>79191963
>NC, SC, GA, AND FL even having a remote change to go blue.
Kek already said that Trump will win. He'll win.
>>79202333
>be me
>libshit
>not butthurt
>spends 40 hours making a 2012 election /pol/ infographic
>NOT
>BUTTHURT
im laffin
>>79193312
Good chance he's dead by the next elections. He's old and overweight.
>>79195425
>hurr we can't deport them because reasons
Eisenhower did it on a relatively similar scale, and he had less resources back then.
>>79203196
Meme magic's already done a good enough job so far.
>>79195963
Stick to German politics Hans
>>79191963
This shit is just propaganda to try and sell us this
narrative that supporting Trump is hopeless
>>79203196
Worked fine so far, rev up those tears bitch.
>>79195503
If Johnson runs he is a faggot son of a bitch traitor.
>>79204742
Uh he's running bud. And stealing a shit ton of votes from trump too
This is why we need to nominate Jeb.
>>79202110
1. Norpath's model isn't scientific?
2. The weather channel uses "scientific projections" still weather models are known to be unreliable. Please have that in mind next time you use the word science.
3. His approach is not scientific because his theory isn't falsifiable.
He's handing out odds. 80 % Hillary will win, 20 % Trump will win. So he basically can't falsify his model. If the odds were inverse Hillary still could win just as she could lose.
Norpath says he's 98 % certain Trump will win. His hypothesisis falsifiable thus scientific. If Trump lose he can't really blame on chance, his model is faulty.
>>79205888
I'm typing on a phone. My point is that Silvers hypothesis can't be tested but Norpaths can. Thus Norpath's model has a more scientific approach than Silver's. This is basic European philosophy. Popper, google it.
>>79191963
80% is a pretty small lead when you think about it. Obviously the probability of a win isn't directly correlated with the number of votes. Suppose you had a poll with a reasonable number of people and 80% say they would vote for Hillary, and 20% say they would vote for Trump. Would you then say the probability of Hillary winning were 80%? No, it would probably be >99%, since the odds would be extremely low that it would change from 80% to <50% before the election.
