>le Trump is le behind in le polls
>>79103380
>24%
wew
>>79103380
There are more registered Dems than Repubs in the nation, go back to community college
>>79104925
>go back to community college
This is why the American working class hates your kind.
>>79104925
>https://www.google.com/search?q=registerd+democrats+in+US&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8#q=number+of+registered+democrats+in+US
>As of October 2014 , Gallup polling found that 43% of Americans identified as Democrats and 39% as Republicans
43:39 =/= 36:24
ratios arent the same dumb nigger.
>>79103380
>le romney will win
>muh unskewed polls
>>79104925
Yeah but its like a 47%-44% split
not 37% to 24%
an Republican are more likely to get off their ass and actually vote
>>79103380
>>79105033
>>79105274
>>79105526
>>79105635
>WE GOTTA UNSKEW THE POLLS
t. Romney in 2012
GOOD LUCK HAHAHAHAHA
>>79105526
>>79105712
2012 polls were +4% Dem so accurate
see
>>79105274
these are +12% Dem
you people are literally retarded.
>>79103380
>>79105810
You're retarded.
Latest surveymonkey poll was
35 D 28 R 36 I
Hillary up by 8 in that poll still
It's pure media manipulation.
They're trying to demoralize Trump supporters and convince would-be supporters that Trump has no chances of winning.
>>79106335
>+7% D
kek
Personally I'm glad TRUMP is losing in rigged polls. It will make the butthurt when he inevitably wins that much sweeter.
>>79106630
>2012
There are more dems than republicans. People don't want to affiliate w/ Trump
>>79106764
Just like Brexit winning by the same margin predicted for it to lose by.
Clinton’s lead over Trump in telephone polls conducted by live interviewers stands at 5.3 percentage points, according to HuffPost Pollster. By contrast, Clinton leads by 5.9 points in polls conducted online or by automated phone messages, when there isn’t a person on the other end of the line.
If the "shy Trump voter" theory were accurate, one would expect Trump to run stronger in the online and automated phone polls, which more precisely simulate the anonymity of the voting booth. But he is actually weaker in these surveys, at 39.2 percent compared to 40.1 percent in live-phone polls.
>>79105712
Good job using a new image to your same shitpost Kermit
http://archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/79080500/#q79081148
>>79106335
I want to face Hillary unindicted. So Trump can tear her corrupt asshole in two on national TV.
>>79105712
>>79106335
>>79106832
>>79106832
not +7%-12% more
Romney polls were on average +4%
I can't trust polls anymore. At the last General Election in the UK they were off by a huge margin, and before Brexit by a significant one.
Peter Hitchens was right when he said that they're not intended to gauge opinion, but to influence it.
>>79106885
>people thinking that they're ever not being recorded in modern society
kek
>people think shillary is really as bad as trump
/pol/ is shit because you retards actually believe what you post
They weighted the final results accordingly, you dolt.
http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/national/washington-post-abc-news-poll-june-20-23-2016/2053/
Page 12.
>>79105712
>>79106764
>>79106885
>"Men" who support Hillary Clinton
I still can't tell if you people are just contrarian trolls, shills, or just run of the mill beta cucks.
Election night will be so glorious. Trump cuck tears will be greater than Romneyfags in 2012. Election night is the best night to come to /pol/ and bathe in the tears of another Republicuck loss.
>>79104925
lol only under-educated vote for drumpf. we smart folks are sure to win the election
>>79106885
>Implying they don't just hang up on anyone who says they're voting for trump and marks them as undecided
>>79107528
>>79107744
>>79107779
>shillary supporters
>smart
kek
they're all drooling idiots that mimic every opinion John Oliver has.
>>79107634
by oversampling Dems
>poll showing trump ahead
"Wowee zowee guys, our Fearless Leader is crushing everyone! Look at these polls!"
>poll showing trump behind, as predicted by all known heuristics and demographics
"RIGGED JEW LIARS, RUN BY JEWS, DON'T LISTEN TO POLLS"
Let me guess, I'm a shill. Good one.
Since every top globalist and jew is coming out against TRUMP while Clinton operatives have fully infiltrated news networks, why is there even a question the polls are rigged?
What is funny is that even in these polls among white voters TRUMP leads 50/40, proving that white people want change while nigs want the status quo. Leftists are on suicide watch since this was revealed.
>poll showing Hillary ahead
"Hahah Drumpf BTFO!"
>poll showing Shillary behind
"I-I-It's just too early too tell! Y-You'll see!"
>inb4 "I-I N-Never said that!"
Welcome to (You) a month ago!
>>79107893
>>79108255
>>79107811
This is literally the same delusion you Romneyfags had in 2012. Exactly the same. Word for word the same posts. My favorite posts on election night 2012 were
>I'm literally crying
>/pol/ told me the polls were rigged!
I haven't laughed so hard in years. November will be great.
Its beyond bad at this point. Don't end up like bernie fags.
>People still think voting Independent works in a FPTP voting system
Republicans voting independent might as well give their vote to Hillary, because that's mathematically what they're doing when they vote Independent.
Stop doing it. Ask for the voting system to be changed to one that actually allows for more than two parties and where you're not forced to vote strategically. But in the meantime vote Trump.
>>79108790
Show me the +12% Dem Romney polls
oh wait you can't
>>79108817
We have like 50 parties in the US
Most are just worthlessly small.
Good luck convincing one side to essentially hand every election to the other side so they can feel more comfortable in bolstering a third party they enjoy.
>>79108993
Obama was polling in the lead steadily for months. Fivethirtyeight had Obama as the heavy favorite 60%. /pol/ was in denial. Clinton leads even more than Obama in 2012. Drumpfags are the most delusional underaged kids we've ever seen on 4chan.
How does Drumpf win enough states to become president? Why is this question never answered in any of these threads?
There's accusations of shilling or being in denial but hardly anything that can be confused for political analysis.
>>79109174
I'll repeat it again
show me the +12% Dem oversampling Romney polls
Oh wait, you can't
>>79103380
is this the one where the PR company autodialed these people and asked for the youngest person in the household?
that was the 7/10 poll they were cawing about recently.
>>79109310
>How does Trump win states
By winning them.
What is it you want to hear? Let's, for the sake of argument, assume that the polling companies aren't owned by globalists and their polls are legit, and Trump is losing them. I don't know why you care this early on. So many things can happen. Hillary could be indicted for one of her crimes. A massive terrorist attack could happen, or a string of them. Trump could dominate Hillary in the debates. Hillary could have another stroke. Or Trump could simply convince enough people that Hillary is corrupt and unfit to be Commander-in Chief.
It's fucking June.
>>79104925
There are more Independents than than either or
And there are only like 4 or 5 percent more dems than repubs
>>79109380
>muh oversampling meme
Literally the same thing you said in 2012 about Romney.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2012/09/14/surprise-oversampling-dems-puts-obama-in-lead/
>>79109310
b/c no one asks those questions and instead people shitpost about garbage with taglines like GRUNGT BTMFAHO
>>79103380
>*Tips MAGA Hat*
>>79109820
Remain is leading the polls. You're right. The tears will be glorious!
>>79109135
But that's what these "independent" voters are actually doing.
>>79106764
This, it will also encourage demoshits to think they don't have to bother voting since "Trump literally cant possibly win XDDD" plus Bernouts can keep their consciences clean (by not voting for Killary "Wallstreet" Klinton) while still resting secure in the knowledge that Trump *can't* win.
>Trump clinches the nomination
>most unpopular republican candidate ever
>even half of republicans dislike him
>Republican identification starts dropping like a rock in polling
>"this proves the polls need to be unskewed" -- /pol/
>>79103380
>1001 people
That's not even close to a statistically valid sample size.
You need 3000 bare minimum for it to count for anything.
>>79111456
why were cuckservatives so obsessed with pushing Jewbio?
>>79112680
Because they're neocons, just like Hillary, but with a slightly different stance on social issues. The GOP has been controlled opposition for decades.
They fight so hard against Trump because he's not on the payroll and isn't playing their game.
>>79112463
you're wrong.
>>79112822
fucking neocons man
they never give up
>>79112463
>lrn2confidenceintervals
>>79113369
That image would be more effective with echoes.
>>79111456
>he thinks that the pollsters just called random people and the random 850 people they called just so happened to be 37% demoshit and 24% RethugliKKKan
Wat are you 12 it doesn't work like that The poll-takers chose registered voters for the sample based on party-affiliation. They decided they wanted those exact percentages of party-affiliations, for "some reason" which remains unknown. The actual current numbers of registered republicans, democrats, and independents are publicly available.
>>79113702
They probably selectively favored area codes that belong to major metro areas as well.
>>79103380
It doesn't matter. Reddit said Trump is going to lose and Reddit is never wrong. Reddit is the smartest place on the internet.
>>79103380
>>79106832
>People don't want to affiliate w/ Trump
probably because peaceful leftist tolerance warriors physically attack random innocent people for not hating whites enough if they do
>>79104925
Not anymore
>>79107893
hillary is cancerous
kill yourself shillbot
>>79114193
It's called the David Duke effect.
>>79106335
Remember 2012?
>b-but muh D+10
>b-but muh Unskewed Polls
Can't wait for the mass /pol/ suicides after Shillary destroys Drumpf
>>79113702
>>79113964
>muh conspiracy theories
Enjoy your epic defeat, bros
>>79104925
>literally a dumb nigger with absolutely no source posting nonsense
Obligatory:
>Trump will never run
>Trump will never breach 15%
>Trump will never win New Hampshire
>Trump will never release his financials
>Trump will never breach 25%
>Trump will never win SC
>Trump will never breach 35%
>Trump will never breach 50%
>Trump will never reach 1237
>Trump will never recover after Wisconsin
>Trump will never win unbound delegates
>Trump will never recover after Colorado
>Trump will never be the nominee
>Trump will never predict BREXIT
------------------
You are here
------------------
>Trump will never pivot to the GE
>Trump will never beat Clinton in swing states
>Trump will never get 270
>Trump will never be POTUS
>Trump will never build the wall
>Trump will never block risky shitskins
>Trump will never deport spics
>Trump will never win a second term
>Trump will never bring back manufacturing jobs
>Trump will never abolish Common Core
>Trump will never renegotiate our trade deals
>Trump will never MAGA
>Trump will never MEGA
>Trump will never colonize Mars
>Trump will never colonize the Milky Way
>Trump will never deport the xenos
>>79115135
>Romney is gonna ream Obama's asshole!
t./pol/ in 2012
>79114993
That's it, I'm taking away your (yous), cock-mongler
>>79103380
>taking a picture of your screen
>>79115227
>>79103380
Are you sure this is a national poll? I'm sure the demographic is like that for some of the swing states.
>>79114993
>Trump bans WaPo from his campaign
>Their polls are huge outliers from that point forward
Not all conspiracies are false.
>>79115416
Remember the last time /pol/ bet against Based Silver?
>WE GOTTA UNSKEW THE POLLS
>>79113369
Trump supported the Iraq War too; the only difference is that he lies about it now, and the people on that list don't.
>>79115429
And the huge Trump outliers are the ones where he's only losing by 5. epic. defeat.
>>79115547
>Remember the last time /pol/ bet against Based Silver?
No, but I remember the last 9,112,245 times that he was wrong
>>79116642
>this much denial
The next four years are going to be delicious with all of the /pol/ asspain
>>79116746
I lost a lot of respect for Nate Tin after Trump
>>79103380
>>79105033
>>79105274
Learn what a random sample is, Trumptards:
>The survey of 1,001 randomly selected adults found a slight uptick in the share of people who identify as Democrats, from 33 percent in May’s poll to 36 percent this month. Self-described Republicans accounted for 24 percent of those polled this month, ticking down from 25 percent in May, while independents made up 33 percent. This shift in party identification, however, accounts for less than half of Clinton’s gains in the new poll.
Trump is causing more people to stop identifying as Republican. The GOP's favorability rating among the general electorate has gone way down during the primaries.
>>79120202
Pretty sure that variation isn't significant enough to really show anything at all. It's randomly selected so you have to allow for some randomness
>>79117442
>>79116642
To be fair, statisticians always flounder when an outlier pops up. He's not really a political analyst, after all, he's just working with the numbers. And while his estimations based on polls immediately before the primary were so-so this year, his longer-term projections based on more holistic data have been off because no model that exists could count for a candidate unlike any America has seen before.
But to his discredit, like all statisticians, he pretends to be humble but is actually pretty arrogant and overconfident in what he believes his insight into numbers gives him.
this is fucking insane
