Memes aside. What are his actual chances of winning the elections? All national polls of him vs Clinton is just her winning.
popular vote =/= electoral college votes
Inb4 1 post by this ID.
>>78106944
>multiple posts by this ID
>>78106944
non-existent
he will lose, the tears will be delicious
The future is worrysome no matter who gets into office.
>>78107006
both don't want him according to polls.
no matter how hard you guys try to rig them
>>78106944
>All national polls of him vs Clinton is just her winning.
Yeah, imagine that, all the media and polling companies who donate large sums of money to establishment candidates release polls that show establishment candidates are winning.
You know they're scared because they've started adding lolbertarian and green candidates to the options.
>>78107159
What if because so many people hate them both, everyone "throws away" their vote on Gary Johnson?
>>78106944
www.primarymodel.com
>For elections from 1912 to 2012 the PRIMARY MODEL picks the winner, albeit retroactively, every time except in 1960.
>It is 87% to 99% certain that Donald Trump will win the presidential election on November 8, 2016; 87% if running against Hillary Clinton, 99% if against Bernie Sanders.
trump is going to be the next president.
>>78106944
Pretty high actually. Especially if Shiterly gets indicted before then. And the polls are rigged and mean absolutely nothing right now, (the only polls that matter are the ones after the debates.) Despite what the bias MSM says about him, he's got a lot more support then they want you to know.
>>78107109
Fifth post best post
>>78107069
Tbh, if the independents manage to make the spoiler effect happen, especially Jill, then Trump might have a pretty good chance of winning the elections.
If Hillary goes to jail then I'll vote for her
Until then I'm indifferent. They're the same
>>78107736
>If Hillary goes to jail then I'll vote for her
>They're the same
>>78107487
But really though, I fear a third world war is well underway either via Trump's too large and loud mouth or Hillary's "behind the scenes deals".
>78106944
tl;dr: No Florida, no Trump. Blue Wall + FL = 271. His options are to either carry every single purple state, or lose FL but carry every other purple state and flip at least one blue state. Due to how the states vote and how much they're worth, he'd need to be around 2-3 points in front to be sure of victory.
>>78108053
Hillary is a warmonger who just wants power and money so she'll definitely start WWIII. Trump on the other hand only wants to fight radical Islam (ISIS.) Not only that, but if Hillary get's elected, then it's only a matter of time before Russia nukes us since Putin hates her. Trump on the other hand will ensure a stronger relationship between the US and Russia, (and no one is willingly going to fuck with the two countries that own over 90% of the worlds nukes)
>>78106944
you dont know what the future holds
>>78108174
Rubio as his VP might be a safe bet, also would keep the GOP establishment off is back
>>78107589
But Gary Johnson is working against Trump.
>>78106944
>polls
George H.W. Bush was down by 15 to Dukakis in August, George W. Bush was up 15 on Al Gore about the same time. Polls don't mean jack until the conventions.
>>78106944
Hillary will crush Trump. Her realpolitik will greatly benefit America and Isreal
Are the reports about him running low on cash true or is this just more negative shilling?
DESU if it is true I think its pretty bad that someone with his businesses acumen could run out of cash.
>>78106944
Depends on if Manafort's in his campaign to help him or to quietly sabotage him on behalf of an external client.
If he's there to help, it'll all boil down to how well Trump follows Paulie's advice. If he's there to get Trump of the way (unlikely given Manafort's role in the post-Wisconsin damage control), Trump will literally not make it past the convention.
>>78109126
Rubio wouldn't take it. He's already given the full Sherman, and he's also not stupid enough to think Trump would listen to his VP anyway. The reconciliation would be even more awkward than Paul Ryan's. He's got until Friday to decide whether or not he wants to try and keep his Senate seat, given that the only real challenger has said they'd go for it if open but would drop out if Marco runs again. Maybe he'd prefer a shot at the governor's mansion. Election's in 2018 and Rick Scott is term-limited.
>>78110096
>it'll all boil down to how well Trump follows Paulie's advice
And we all know how Trump's such a listener.
>>78109371
this
>>78109999
>I think its pretty bad that someone with his businesses acumen could run out of cash.
Actually, it's pretty common for someone with his business acumen to run out of cash. Given he's put out "emergency funding drives" for $100k and his skimming of campaign funds has only netted him and his family $6.2m over the last few months, maybe he's not as rich or good at business as he'd like us to think. Surely if he were a self-funding billionaire he could cut his campaign a check for $50m and be done with it.
>>78109220
That's why I said especially Jill. Because her ideologies are closer to Democrats, which will cause Hillary to lose votes. So if you want her to lose, you'll want Jill Stein to grow fast before November.
>>78106944
50/50
50/50 since there are two candidates. One will win and one will lose.
>>78109371
Special cases. There are three indicators to look for: poll lead, state of the economy, and incumbent approval. Where two of them agree, that's usually where your winner is. The cases you picked out had the polls as the minority report. Polls give Clinton the lead, the numbers point to an economy that is at least not shit, and Obama's approval is net positive. If the economy goes to shit again AND Barry's approval numbers go negative, then we can start ignoring the polls.
tl;dr Early polls only fail to predict the outcome when fundamentals are pointing the other way, which isn't happening right now.
>>78107460
Well that bitch better get indicted quickly.
If things continue going the way they are now, he will 100% lose
However, we're months out from the election - external circumstances could shit on Clinton (eg she gets indicted, or the economy tanks) or Trump could pull out something game changing. Both those are well within the realm of possibility.
Id give Clinton a moderate edge at this point
>>78108174
Trump won't win PA and probably not VA
Ohio is iffy and so is florida
The third parties could easily get 6-10% of the popular vote on Election Day, which could give the election to Trump. That's the only scenario I can see him winning.
>>78115710
Hope they get caught doing this shit. Thats voter fraud right there. Trump should talk about that in one of his speeches that Clinton has been doing voter fraud especially with the media.
Trump wins in a landslide. Screencap this.
>>78113220
The "economy" is doing better than employment because the market is held up. Employment is absolute shit.They can't even hide it with seasonal adjustments. Fundamentals point to her loss by a landslide. Having said that I think she will cheat and win.
>>78106944
The same chance as Mexico paying for that wall.
ONE HUNDRED PERCENT
>>78117016
>Thats voter fraud right there.
How is a private company conducting a poll with poor methodology, "voter fraud"?
>>78107438
>For elections from 1912 to 2012 the PRIMARY MODEL picks the winner, albeit retroactively
>retroactively
Okay so they made a simple regression model that correlated variables with previous presidency winners and this is supposed to be impressive in its ability to predict this upcoming race?
lol no. Fax me when they actually have have data supporting their real-world predictions.
>>78109999
Damn, you were one off from quads
I'm sitting here wondering about this myself.
I would be fun to watch what D Trump can do. But I'm not sure who's leading.
