(TRUMP vs CLINTON)
<<< Pic is of 2008 (OBAMA vs ROMNEY)
>64 extra Republican electoral votes needed for a Trump win
Some observations:
>Trump MUST carry FL (29)
>with her talk of banning fracking, Hillary has likely alienated voters in OH and PA (38 electoral votes)
>with the same rhetoric on coal, she may have alienated voters in VA (13)
>if Trump carries FL, OH, and PA, he likely wins
>AR (6) is the homestate of Bill Clinton and went red in 2008
>NY (29) could be seen as either candidate's homestate
Discuss your thoughts
Coal will not sway VA. Florida is also not as likely for Trump because of the huge Hispanic population/butthurt Jeb/Rubio fanboys.
NY is guaranteed Clinton unless it's a massive landside.
Good analysis, though.
>>74761464
Those Hispanics are Cuban not Mexicans regard
Huge difference
>>74761740
>In that regard*
PA, OH and FL.
It's in the bag.
>>74761085
Ok one of the few fucking electoral college threads where someone started to do their homework on voting trends.
Let me say that Virginia won't be swayed by coal voters though. There has been a demographic shift over the last few years where liberal urban flight from the beltway has moved into more and more of Virginia.
>>74761085
Ohio is going to Trump
>>74761085
One thing I want to add is Nevada is in play this year. As a resident for years the state was controlled by the Reed Machine out of Vegas. But the massive infighting between Clinton and Sanders in the state has proven that Reed's grip is weaker than it ever has been.
If Reed can't keep Vegas under control, the state flips to red.
>>74761464
You're probably right about VA. But it's hard to imagine her not fucking up her chances in OH and PA, especially with the pain the frackers are going through right now with the oil glut.
The hispanics in Florida are Cuban, though, like >>74761740
pointed out. They dont even like Mexicans and hate that they get mistaken for them. It's obviously a must-win for Trump
FL and OH alone is 47 votes, he would then need 17 more to win
>imagine he flips FL, OH, and MI (16) and we have a 269 - 269 tie. Also Supreme court would likely split 4 - 4
>>74762535
Nevada and Colorado will likely not be in play this year
But Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan might be
https://www.americanhistoryusa.com/campaign-trail/
At about 51-53% Trump begins to flip Nevada, Colorado, Minnesota, New Jersey and Maine
At that percentage New Hampshire is already solid red and Massachusetts becomes a batleground state
California and New York are very, very unlikely to happen, they are going to be the last states to turn red under the model I was playing
And Trump is likely going to get around 49 to 50% rather than a blow out at 51-53%
He could even win the EC without winning the popular vote
>>74763065
New Jersey could be a huge wildcard. Trump blankets were being handed out at ground zero. It probably won't sway NY, but NJ could definitely go red
>>74763325
The problem in NJ is that Christie isn't popular there, and his Casino flops in Atlantic City haven't made him very popular
Mind you, the recent polling data where Trump falls to Hillary by around 7% could be an indication of NJ going red this year, but I wouldn't hold my breath for it changing much from the March Analysis
In fact, am already counting on the March data being a bit anti-Trump compared to the situation now
(In the March model Trump was still lagging far behind Hillary, whereas now they are tied, the March model reflects this)
>>74763065
>>74763209
>>74763325
LOL
>>74761085
Absolutely no doubt this will be the electoral map
>>74763577
>LOL
Michigan is a heluva lot squishier than Colorado and Nevada, your model is wrong
On the other hand, Texas is relatively squishy in the March model (yes, you are reading this right) since Trump barely wins it 53-45% initially
Also UT might be as squishy for the republicans as Michigan is for the democrats (Hillary could flip it blue)
>>74761740
Don't you think deporting all the illegal Mexicans has them a bit worried? He could stop the free immigration from Cuba to the US. In fact, I'd be willing to bet he would, due to the relaxation of the embargo.
>>74763763
Cruz was still big in the race in March. That skewed Texas numbers
>>74763763
>Michigan is a heluva lot squishier than Colorado and Nevada, your model is wrong
Michigan isn't going to go red after their flint michigan crisis and failure of a governor
>>74763953
Yeah that makes sense, Rick Snyder is a douche too. His approval rating is only at 39%. 41% of Michiganders think he should resign over the Flint water crisis.
>>74763909
Yeah, that, and the Anti-Trump forces
>>74763953
>failure of governor
Failure of a governor or a failure of federal government?
Also mind you that Bernie Sanders and Trump won in Michigan
Do you honestly see all those voters going to vote for Hillary?
Most of them will stay at home, a few will vote Hill, and some will even vote Trump (apparently a number around 20% from some data that I can't put my finger in atm, although I could dig it up)
>>74763953
not at all. If anything the water crisis has made citizens more leary of government.
>>74764166
Failure of the governor, he was the one who made the decision to change the source of the water from Detroit to the Flint River.
>>74762899
MI really depends on how vicious the Democratic primary gets. The niggers are voting Hillary either way but the white middle class "Facebook Socialist" votes depend on how badly Bernie gets screwed over at the convention and whether or not he sells out and endorsed her. Union's will probably go for Trump thanks to his anti-trade agreement stances
>>74761464
I honestly think that if he keeps posting pictures of himself eating taco bowls he could win the Hispanic vote.
>>74763953
But Trump is an outsider, the whole exciting thing about his candidacy to strategists is that he claims to have appeal to those Blue Republicans. Michiganders probably wouldn't vote for the Republican candidate if he was a normal conservative establishment figure; but they might vote for Trump.
>>74764269
If the democrats play it on ads all day long it could do some damage to Trump's chances in Michigan
Yes
>>74763577
>>74761085
New Hampshire is for Trump, not Killary.
>>74763577
>New Jersey and New York are more hard Democrat than states that are actually Hispanic.
0/10 did you even try
>>74761894
This guy gets it, Holding Romney states and adding those 3 which even that talentless hack was able to come relatively close in wins us 272 EV
>>74764257
No it made them demand more government. Because somehow the government fucking up means they need more power to prevent them from fucking up again
>>74764454
Or like I said earlier, OH, FL, and MI results in a tie which would go to supreme court, which is short one member
>>74761085
Trump will win Florida
>>74761464
The thing is FL Hispanics are mostly conservative cubans, and even then they're only a majority in miami-dade, so its likely the north hick vote will sway fl right.
Although the deciding factor will probably be the retirees on the coasts
>>74764329
>imgur filename
>>74764613
If no one gets 270 it is decided by congress not the supreme court.
>>74764613
In any under circumstance I would be fine with a tie but we're dealing with the establishment here.
Remember the corrupt bargain 1824.
>>74764613
Please be joking
>>74764738
Oh ok, I assumed it would be like 2000
>>74763953
Democrats have betrayed the people of Michigan and I expect they'll vote for me.
>>74764269
You were the ones who poisoned the Flint river. Crooked!
>>74764832
The 2000 vote went to the Supreme Court because Bush got 270 (with Florida) but Al Gore sued his arse, if am not right
>the race is too close
>they take it to the house
>most of the house is republican
>trump wins
>>74763763
>Utah
Every Mormon I know despises Hillary
>>74764956
It seems they despise Trump as much if not more, although the polls have changed since the time that model was first made
In the model, Trump still wins UT... but by a 3-4% margin and it has Gary Johnson at 20% too...
>>74763820
Except he's only going to deport criminal illegal aliens. All his statements and his website state this.
>>74764822
>>74764950
I think Bush actually sued Florida but I could be wrong.
anyway my thought was that in event of tie, someone will be sued and it will end up in the courts regadless of due process
>>74764329
I agree. Hillary isn't popular here
>>74765173
It only ended up there due to how close Florida was, an actual tie can happen without any states being that close since almost everything is winner take all.
>>74765083
Utah only dislikes Trump because of Cruz.
They will end up voting for him just because they like Hillary even less.
That's actually the name of the game this entire election. Now that Bernie doesn't really have a chance not many people are excited about their candidate as much as they just despise the other choice. Beyond what you might gather on this board most Trump supporters aren't super stoked about him, but they are logical enough to see he is the best option
This will be the election
>>74765945
I kind of doubt Trump is going to beat Shillary in the south.
>>74761085
Hillary is no Obama
>>74765640
Yeah, I remember watching it and knowing it was bullshit as a 12 year old lol. At the time I just thought an entire nation of adults was incompetent. The way things are today, though, in America nearly everything goes before the Supreme Court if you have enough money to keep appealing decisions. Although, who knows how Congress would even handle it, seeing as 80% of them hate Trump. He could sue for buttfuckery when the party votes Hillary
>>74766113
>Any of the bible belt voting for hillary ever
>>74766324
>Not realizing how many niggers there are in the south
>>74765945
This is very much within reason. PA is likely leaning Hillary, though. Are there any current poll numbers for PA?
>>74766277
I think they get to pick between the top three, so if they can somehow get a candidate they like to third place they can pick him over both of them. Getting a third party entering this late to actually win a state will be pretty close to impossible though.
>>74766689
Hillary was up an average of 7% in PA last I saw, but a lot are fairly old polls. The newest was two weeks ago and only had her up 1%.
>>74761085
Prediction.
>>74766113
>>74766605
>thinking the GOP will lose solid red states in the South
>in 2016
Maybe if we had a serious third party taking my votes, losers. Do you think those Renegades will seriously beat me? They're just going to take some of the Democrats' Jew vote so we'll win more Jewish states like my home state, Virginia, Maryland, DC, Delaware, New Jersey, Washington, and Massachusetts. We're taking 'em all baby. We'll keep winning and winning and we'll go up and up in the polls, and before long I bet I could get our national flag changed.
>>74766605
>Not realizing that to them Hilldog is just another white person
it'll be no where near the turnout for obama bruh
>>74762899
Care to explain your analysis of Nevada, amigo?
I can give you mine traditionally the strongest voting block has always been the service workers unions in the state. And Reed has traditionally held those unions under his control.
But recently as a member of one of those service unions I can tell you that the Reed Machine no longer is shilling as strongly as it once was, and Trump resonates with the common Union man.
>>74765945
Ayyyy. You and I are the same except for Nevada and NH.
>>74767858
All my info comes from playing: https://www.americanhistoryusa.com/campaign-trail/ Repeated times
Most of the time, Nevada doesn't flip, whereas Michigan does, and quite often
>>74767961
And NC and Iowa. Romney was fucking milquetoast so Trump is gonna win Iowa hands down.
>>74767961
>red VA, but blue NC
Explain yourself.
>>74767961
Its statistically impossible for NC to turn blue when Virginia turns red
At least in the electoral model I played
>>74767961
If we win Virginia then we'll 110% win NC. I'd say it's more likely that we win NC and not Virginia, net positive 2 from your map
>>74768311
Bro, your basing you shit on a video game? I've lived in the Nevada since 2002, work in the Hotel industry, and remember all the elections and what has gone down.
>>74768508
It turns out your video game isn't real life.
>>74768868
Its a simulation based on a model that's dated to march 2016 lol
Its not an exact match of election day due to it having been done back in march but yeah, its quite accurate for knowing at what point states will turn or not red/blue
>>74768926
The model on which its based is pretty valid imho, or at least it was back in march
>>74767401
>401▶
>File: map.png (114 KB, 1309x937)
wayyyy too close
>>74769076
Models aren't able to read voting moods in states. It's why Nate "2% chance of Trump" Silver can't predict shit this election.
>>74767961
how can pa be red?
>>74769428
No, Silver failed because he DIDNT use models. He even admitted to just making it all up because "common sense."
Everything Eurogaybro has said has been spot on so far
>>74761085
>2008
>Obama V Romney
Lol, fix your post, m8.
