If trump wins these states the election is over.
https://www.google.com/amp/www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/05/10/poll-trump-running-even-hillary-florida-ohio-pennsylvania/amp/?client=safari#
>>73600184
Amusingly Trump will also be attacking in Virginia, Iowa, NH, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Jersey, Maine, Colorado, Washington and New York
Hillary is low energy, Trump is going to be waging a campaign to win every state
>>73600395
Do you seriously think trump can win ny though?
>>73600594
>can a well known philanthropic businessman win in his home state?
If Trump swings Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, he wins.
206 + 18 + 20 + 29 = 273
And there are a bunch more states he has a good chance in.
>>73600728
Like what?
>>73600769
Like >>73600395
>>73600594
It doesn't matter whether he does or doesn't, the fact that he has a shot at winning NY (and even Massachusetts) means that Hillary will have to deploy her defenses and her limited time and energy across a much wider field than the Democrats are used to
Trump does things under budget and ahead of schedule, Hillary will go broke just trying to hold Trump off in upper New England
>>73600395
Trump is going to play hard to win big on the east coast, because as results come in, west coast libs will be discouraged from voting.
If CNN calls FL, PA, NY, VA and OH for Trump early in the night. West coast libs will be positively suicidal.
>>73601021
I can't handle this positivity. What if they rig the machines?
>>73600939
She's also going to be campaigning until the very last second in the primaries, while Trump is already cruising on easy street.
Hillary is also going to have an uphill battle among the democratic base since Bernie bots are going to be mighty ticked off after Sanders inevitably loses the primary race by a relatively close margin.
>>73601021
Also the turnout in California, despite the spics, should benefit Trump
Trump is doing far better among Asians than Romney ever did, plus whites are 60% of California's registered voters but were only 52% of voters in 2012. In 1992 they were 80% of California's voters. If this election sees white turnout in California driven up then Trump could win in California, causing millions of liberals to kill themselves.
>>73601160
Meme magic will defeat them, as it always does
Kek takes great laughter in watching self-assured, pompous, arrogant neocons explode in rage as his chosen makes them all look like idiots
>>73601366
>whites are 60% of California's registered voters but were only 52% of voters in 2012
Is that just because more people actually bothered to register this election cycle?
>>73601198
It's also worth noting that many of Sanders' voters are first time voters. As a result they lack the kind of party loyalty that will cause most of the Republicans currently unsure about Trump to back him in the general.
Keep in mind that getting new voters into the party is necessary to survive- 10 million+ Americans have died since 2012 (40 million since 2000) and at least 7 million of those who died voted in the 2012 elections. Voters are not an ethnic group or anything like that and the children of voters will not necessarily be voters themselves so you need to get people involved in the process by getting them excited to back a candidate. Sanders and Trump are good at doing this, Hillary is not. She'll be mostly relying on people who have been voting Democrat for years and you can expect there will be a lot of bootyblasted people in certain states which have large working class populations that Democrats who are working class will be swapping Hillary for Trump.
>>73601366
California will never go trump. It's an absurd stretch for literally every white man to vote trump.
>>73601451
IDK, but California is only a blue state because Republicans like Bush II were too cucked to campaign there
Trump will go there with the intent of trying to win
>>73600184
Actually, for Trump to win, he only needs 21.91% of the vote if he can win these states. The electoral college is weird.
>>73601602
So Hillary takes a vacation and decides not to defend California because "Trump will never win there". That's a bad move in an election full of upsets.
Trump is the worst possible opponent for Hillary and the energy difference is just another reason why- Trump will fly all over in his jet while Hillary will restrict herself to a rally every two days in purple states.
>>73601721
Texas is going to go to trump.
>>73601834
Probably. It's just a curious fact about your electoral system. Even if he just gets 21.91% of the vote, he could still win.
>>73600695
You're a shithead if you think NY will go red. Did Massachusetts go red for Romney? Nope, and it was virtually unchanged from the 2008 results.
Best case scenario for Trump. Hillary still has an overall electoral college advantage, however.
This election is going to be very interesting. I think we will atleast see one or two traditionally blue states turn red that will shake the democrats. This election has taken surprising turns and is unpredictable. Trump will most likely win the presidency (stating on if it's against Hillary) here's why
1) The democrats rely heavily on minority voters which do not vote in high percentiles and Hillary Clinton will not mobilize and energize the black vote as Obama did
2)Trump has energized the white working class which is the biggest voting block while Hillary does much worse than them
3)Historical trends shows that this year was built for a Republican to win the presidency
4)Nobody has figured out how to combat Donald Trump; you can't go down to his level or you fold and if you try to talk policy you fold under his ridicule
5) Hillary Clinton will not mobilize the youth vote whatsoever, if anything they'll vote against her because they see her as what's wrong with the nation and the epitome of corporatism and corruption. They also believe she rigged and stole the election from Bernie.
6) Donald Trump appeals to moderates, independents and Democrats. Hillary does not appeal to Republicans and Bernie has pushed her so far left that she has isolated the moderates while Trump has always been center right.
>>73601971
Not really curious. You picked the states with the largest populations
>tfw Trump wins the electoral college but gets BTFO in the popular vote.
dream scenario for me. I don't think the crying would stop for 4 years.
>>73602144
>>73602219
Assblasted liberal spotted
>>73602219
True, it's close from 8 electoral votes
>>73602219
I wouldn't rule out nevada, colorado, and virginia.
I believe colorado will go red. All the liberals there are bernouts and don't like hillary. Bernie would've won for sure there, but I think trump has the advantage against hilldog.
>>73602233
>will most likely win the presidency
Nope.
Hillary just needs Virginia to win for the most part.
Almost all the prediction markets give Hillary around a 75% chance of winning the general election.
>>73602268
You mean the ones with the lowest?
Trump is red.
>>73602361
Will agree on this, we need to convince bernouts to vote trump for this.
>>73602375
And where do you get that number from? Based on historical trends and voter turnouts the Republicans are winning by far. If you're basing it on polls before either convention has been held and they've yet to have a debate then you are mistaken. Raw numbers of voter turnouts speak a lot more than polls.
What if this turns out to be another realigning election?
>>73602375
>prediction markets
I see you've dumped a bunch of money into Hillary and are afraid your investment won't pay off
>>73602375
Back in December Trump was getting 21% betting odds of winning the nomination even though it had been obvious since August/September that he would steam roll them.
>>73602644
Then get popcorn and prepare to see hillary lose it
remember the midterms peeps.
This is what happened with just the regular GOP losers campaigning hard. With Trumps high energy, many states we haven't seen red will go red.
There are only 5 important states this election.
Michigan
Ohio
Florida
Virginia
Pennsylvania
I think Trump has Florida in the bag. And the other 4 states are blue collar states, and Hillary has vowed to shit on blue collar people on every turn.
Nobody seems worried that the same poll showing ties in PA and FL also has Hillary +5 nationwide? It doesn't make sense that a republican can be playing ball in PA, which is more dem-leaning than the national average, and be down by 5 points nationwide. Mathematically the only way that works is if he's losing support in more red-leaning parts of the country to balance it out.
>>73602732
Yeah but Rubio was going to win until he imploded in that debate.
>>73602822
We are worried DAMNIT!
It's unpredictable if the Bern outs side with us
>>73602219
What's up with the cucks in Virginia? I didn't think that there were that many niggers there. Is it just NOVA "people" with white guilt?
>>73601021
This tbqh- Ohio closes at 7:30. If it's called red, Oakland will be in flames at 7:36... (4:36 local)
>>73602233
>>73601633
Keep wishing for that, deluded Dumpsters. Keep posting these posts so I can show you them in November.
>>73602860
Trump never polled below Rubio. Rubio had no shot, everyone with a brain could tell Trump would win for months
>>73602822
It's no secret that there are more Dems in America than Republicans. So national polling is irrelevant when you have an electoral college. Also look up the "Bradley Effect"
>>73602950
Correct. Plus our major urban centers are full of nonwhites. NOVA used to be white but has recently become filled with shitskins, both Mexicans and Poo-in-loos. This state kinda blows desu.
>>73603134
I live in MD I feel your pain
>>73602909
89% percent of Bernie supporters already say they won't vote for trump. Only like 85% of Hildawg supporters voted for Obama in the 08 general. She will probably get less that that this go round but the remainder will go to Gary Johnson and the like, not Trump
I gave republican primary voters the benefit of the doubt by assuming even they weren't stupid or bigoted enough to elect Trump as their nominee...lesson learned, don't ever underestimate the stupidity or bigotry of republican primary voters.
>>73602144
And they've never been Red before. I mean, just look at the Reagan elections.
>>73602860
If Rubio hadn't fucked up that debate he'd just have done slightly better in NH and SC, Trump would have still taken first place in NH, SC and NV. Rubio would have dropped out in April after it became clear that Cruz was the main challenger to Trump rather than Rubio.
The establishment didn't have the numbers to defeat Trump when the calendar was designed to favor candidates who do well in the south. In fact I'm not sure where rubio could have done well- Cruz does well in the plains, where are Rubio's plains?
>>73602950
Up until the governor let 200,000 felons get their voting rights back it was mostly the same reason as why people sometimes put North Carolina in the Hillary column- because they're fucking dumb and think 2012 was the election to decide all elections or something.
>>73602799
/thread
Ohio is already in the bag trump catch and don't realise
>>73602959
If he loses then it's whatever. I was speaking from an objective standpoint since this is supposed to be a place we discuss things not just shitpost like on /int/. Do you have anything to add to the discussion or are you just going to be an annoying fag?
>>73602959
>my post was added to a collage
Aw shucks, too bad we both know you're only here because you're assblasted Trudeau is your PM and so you shitpost to get the anger out
>>73603326
Time to convert them
>>73603134
Holy crap does it ever. Actually I don't mind all the ethnic food that's available, but fuck this living in Saudi Virginia
>>73603108
>>73603108
>national polling is irrelevant when you have an electoral college.
State results usually correlate strongly to the national horserace numbers adjusted by a factor of the state's partisan makeup. That Trump is outperforming his national number in PA, where he ought to be underperforming it, suggests that this election won't map very well to party id due to a bunch of people from both sides crossing over to vote the other side.
>Bradley Effect
yeah I remember when everybody was sure Obama would underperform the polling averages because of that, then he matched or beat them in every state 2 cycles in a row. Muh turnout operation
The demographics of the election will ultimately decide whether Trump wins or not.
I don't think its fair to compare past elections to Trump since he is such a unique candidate and an outsider. What I've heard from most analysts though is Trump overwhelmingly appeals to white men across the boards, including; age, education, location.
While this is nice, Clinton overwhemingly has the antithesis, women across the boards. To top it off she has a large majority of the Hispanic vote.
Now the population of the United States is currently 60% white and 25% Hispanic. Assuming Trump gets 40% of that demographic how is he to expand outside of that? Even with only 20% of the white vote, Clinton can get the Hispanic vote and get up to 45% of the population. Trump is at a disadvantage, but maybe if political apathy runs high due to their unavailability he'll win.
Minnesota fag here, really hoping for a red outcome here. Most likely not, but then again meme magic might come through for me
>>73602799
Michigan is the worst mix of nonwhites and white guilt cucks, plus a Repub gov who is unpopular over the water crisis in Flint. But in the primary it went Trump and Sanders so that bodes well for The Donald.
>>73604151
>Cruz state
>Voting for Trump
very doubtful my friend.
>>73604140
Nigger you are dumb as fuck
62% of the population=/=62% of citizens or even 62% of voters
The last election alone was 72% white with low turnout for whites and high turnout for minorities
Also Hispanics are 17% of the total with half that being actual adult citizens
Get some basics down before making theories
>>73604338
Trump is polling ahead in Ohio despite beating Kasich
That indicates that Ohioans don't care that he raped their governor, so I have to assume Michiganders will also ignore their governor's shittiness for Trump's superiority
>>73604151
Trump will show up in places like this and say "look how Hillary takes you for granted... She doesn't even come here to win your vote." May not turn the state red, but it may take her eye off Ohio and Penn long enough to swing those.
>>73604388
Rubio state
In any case Minnesota and Wisconsin had around 60% of their Republicans believing that Trump was a danger to the country, while 75% of Republicans nationally believe the opposite. Those states are cuck-central.
>>73604388
Rubio state friend
>>73604140
>Now the population of the United States is currently 60% white and 25% Hispanic
Roughly 9 % hispanics, actually. You work with fantasy figures.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_States#Race_and_ethnicity
>>73602959
>said extremely nervous guy for umpteenth time
>>73604479
This is just what I've heard. I still believe Trump may win though.
>>73602959
>implying an anonymous collage will do anything to anyone
>>73602860
Fact of the matter is that it doesn't mean a damn thing how well he did before March 15th, the moment he would get his ass beat down in Florida, he had to drop out. To lose the state where you are one of the most powerful politicians is fucking disgraceful and disqualifies you from the Presidency in my opinion
>>73600184
Question, when is the election I haven't been keeping track?
>>73605047
Whenever you want it to be, the universe is a hologram anyway
Hillary does well in VA, NC and GA though. If she wins 2/3 of them plus FL, it's game over.
>>73605193
Do you think she'll keep those numbers for 5 months?
>>73605634
She doesn't really need to do anything, just hope the FBI investigation amounts to nothing and remain the "safe choice". Trump is simply an anathema to a large chunk of the electorate, and undecideds always swing heavily in favour of the status quo when push comes to shove (which is why Brexit probably won't pass either).
>>73600728
The most realistic path is Ohio, Florida, Iowa, and Virginia. Those 4 would give a win and they are swing states. Florida is extremely pro trump. The other 3 are up for grabs.
>>73601021
I do hope some of my coworkers kill themselves when this happens. I'm in the capital of liberalism here on the west coast.
>>73606293
Frisco?
>>73600395
Can you imagine the butt hurt if he flips a dozen stated. It would be glorious.
>>73601366
The digits never lie.
I'm a California fag.
I hope you are right.
You might be. The protestors here waving Mexican flags pissed off some people but we have a lot of blind liberal retardation here.
>>73600184
The Democrats innately have an electoral map advantage, however due to this election obviously being unorthodox certain states might be battlegrounds that were not previously (for example because Mormons follow their supreme leader Romney like zombies, Utah might be up for grabs for Hillary while due to Trump's unique appeal some Rust Belt states like MI might be up)
My pic related shows that Trump needs to get just 1 of VA+IA, PA, MI, or CO+NV (Or some combination of those) to win, however my map assumes he wins everything else in red which is fairly likely. If he doesn't get everything else in red he might as well pack his bags because bar some crazy electoral map shift where anything goes he won't be winning.
Don't completely ignore the words in my post and just look at the map if you choose to respond with
>TRUMP DELUSION
>>73602144
> Implying Romney matters even slightly
>>73600594
Most likely not, although he does have an outside chance at it (and Massachusetts although to a lesser degree, which isn't saying much because its a low chance in the first place)
>>73600184
Serious question to the burgers though, whenever i look at those maps I wonder why I never hear of separatists ideologies in the US..
I see nothing in common when I look at California and Texas for example, I would never set a foot in California and wouldn't mind living in Texas. And yet California voters get to ruin Texas 4 more years every presidential election. It just doesn't make sense.
Here we have half of the country that wants to tell the other half to fuck off because they're leftists even though they have the same culture/lifestyle and 2500 years of common history. How come you guys aren't fed up with each others?
>Quinnipiac
>Constantly showed Republican bias in polls in 2012
>Overpolling whites by 5% in these polls
>>73607324
The civil war crushed most real attempts to separatism, the country also is similar enough to itself to stay unified.
>>73607324
Because the federal government would quickly smash any legitimate secession movement. Also the moderates help keep us together. That's really what the entire election is based on, winning moderates and independents. Plus most Americans love America and want to stay together
>>73606439
Yep.
>>73604686
I live in wisconsin. This is 100% true. Nice cheese though.
>>73607324
This is what happened the last time someone tried separatism in the US. Nobody sane wants a remake.
>>73607324
on a county level, the majority of the US is republican, but because of sanctuary cities crammed to the brim with 3rd world legal and illegal immigrants which support big government, it shits on the entire state. NY is entirely republican, as soon as you leave NYC its redneck central, but because of the vast population of NYC, it fucks up the entire state. The answer is BUILD WALL.
>>73606854
Of those, VA and IA are the most likely. I doubt Utah will go blue unless Romney runs 3p which he won't because he's too much of a faggot.
>>73603343
Wah wah wah. Nigger. Does that word offend your sensitive pussy?
>>73606139
Tbh he has a better chance in PA than VA. Yanks movin down into Northern VA has cucked the state from a state wide voting standpoint.
>>73600594
Colorado was a swing state not too long ago
>>73602318
It would break the back of the Democratic party if Trump won the popular vote. They could never live down the shame.
>First black president
>First woman president
>record number of voting minorities
>every advantage
>defeat
>>73600184
Hillary is at her strongest now
People dont like her
It is only downhill from here
>>73607324
We are on borrowed time
Also you have to realize part of our issue is that over time we have gone from fairly sovereign states to on giant federal monstrosity
I think the us will have some form of civil war/insurrection within or lifetimes
Daily Reminder: We could convince Bernouts to vote for Johnson alot more easily than Trump. If just one blue state goes yellow, then Trump wins massively.
>>73607324
The Constitution is the only thing holding us together. As different parts of the country have come to interpret it differently, cracks and fissures have opened up.
People sometimes say the cracks were larger historically, or that America has always been diverse. But if you look closely, the societies of the North and South during the civil war weren't that different compared to now. The diversity of the 13 colonies, between various different Christian groups variously from England, Germany and the Netherlands pales in comparison to the present day.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qI3SngYvUg
I think that racially the groups holding us together have been the Irish and the Italians. Relatively easy going people willing to work with everyone and also free of the associations of white guilt. Now that Antonin Scalia is gone I expect trouble.
>>73613449
The Irish and the Italians have been thoroughly whitewashed to the point where they are wrapped up in the white guilt narrative too.
Also the Irish are the most fucking racist against blacks in the United States because back when they were considered subhumans too they had to share hoods with and beat out the nogs for jobs.
I keep hearing about with how poorly he polls with women and how most women would vote for Hillary, in addition to minorities, is this cause for concern?
>>73614506
Women are overwhelmingly democratic anyway.
In 2012 Romney only won 45% of women, and he also only got 52% of men. Trump seems to be doing slightly worse with women but way better with men, which is fine. He needs to hold his women numbers, which tbqh might go up, while slightly improving his male numbers.
>>73614740
democratic with a capital D
>>73614740
>>73614774
>>73614887
Thanks for the reassurance famalam
I think Trump will take NY. No way he lets Hillary win his home state
>>73602950
I feel the same about Wisconsin. I moved here a year ago and can count on two hands the people I know well and are liberal
>>73615381
Where do you live in Wisconsin.
My friend who lives there tells me that Milwaukee and the college towns are hives of cuckery.
