>>73269709
A continuation from this thread.
Scientists estimate at least 100 BILLION intelligent civilizations have evolved prior to us.
http://futurism.com/proof-aliens-definitely/
Two scientists from the University of Rochester and the University of Washington have developed an “archaeological form” to the famous Drake equation, which will allow us to determine how many technological civilizations have formed in the history of the universe. And it seems there may be a number of them.
How many Hitlers were born in whole universe??
>>73276792
Yet, in the words of Carl Sagan, they have not produced even a single transistor of extraterrestrial origin.
Mathematical estimations are not proof.
>estimate
i estimate im about to go make a big shit
>>73276792
>Scientists estimate at least 100 BILLION
Dear fuckhead,
Learn how the drake equation works and you can plug in any numbers as a guesstimate.
It has only improved slightly as we're getting a better handle on how many star systems have planets (a lot).
The inferences are also guesses.
If you have a degree in anything your guess is taken as gospel by the OMGSCIENCE crowd, because they are too retarded to even read the wiki article on the equation itself so they can understand how much of guesswork it is.
I'm using 4chan X for the first time
Is there any way to save threads or something similar to that so I can be reminded to read up on this later?
>>73277085
>because they are too retarded to even read the wiki article on the equation itself
Is that what you did?
>>73276792
LET'S SEE
THERE 150 QUADRILLION STARS
EVERY OTHER STAR HAS AT LEAST ONE PLANET
EVERY PLANET WE KNOW HAS A MOON
THERE'S TRILLIONS OF CIVILIZATIONS AND THAT'S CONSERVATIVE
>>73276792
Fermi's Paradox asks where all the artifacts are. The Great Filter posits that we're either early or late to the civilization party.
>>73276667
>You dont know HOW the brain does its shit. Nobody knows. In terms of the bare mechanics its still a complete mystery.
You didn't bother to read the rest of the post did you?
Are artificial neural networks also a complete mystery? We have no idea how they work despite designing them all the fucking time.
I guess Demis Hassabis, the founder of deepmind, have no use whatsoever for his Cognitive Neuroscience degree because clearly the field have no content at all it.
Stop parroting the philosopher "we cannot know nuffing" mantra and "magic mystery brain"-meme and go learn something.
>>73277188
we are probably too late
![GettyImages-97289540_master[1].jpg](https://i.imgur.com/VVVV1Bn.jpg "GettyImages-97289540_master[1].jpg")
>>73277185
>ceased to exist before the birth of mankind
>>73277188
>Fermi's Paradox asks where all the artifacts are. The Great Filter posits that we're either early or late to the civilization party.
Think of darwinism and the progression of human civilization as it has occurred. It has been a struggle for dominance since the beginning of history. With the advent of increasing technology there is now the real possibility of human extinction through warfare. And we have only hit this level of technology in a brief time period.
So if other extraterrestrial civilizations have occurred they probably ended up the same way we will. By destroying ourselves.
>>73277188
I'd say we are too late. Either civilizations have destroyed themselves out of existence or they have evolved to singularity so that they can hide their existence. I'm sure the threat of there being an apex predator civilization is real enough for whole civilizations to decide that it's a better idea to remain invisible.
>>73277433
scary thought
>>73277426
>>73277433
>Doesn't factor in the chance of single cellular to multicelluar which took 4 billion years
>Doesn't factor in the likihood of intelligence developing which is also going to be extremely rare considering humans went down to a couple of thousand individuals
>>73277144
>Is that what you did?
I read astronomy books where it's brought up and there's really not much more to the equation or creation than you find in the wiki article.
There should be lots of life according to guesstimates, we can't find anything to suggest it's out there, leaving just the guesswork conclusions:
- Life has a great filter early, mid stages or late, that kills off life before it can meaningfully travel or communicate.
- Civilizations are hidden for some reason. Intentionally? Maybe they switch from broadcasting radiowaves to short waves (like we did) leaving nothing to listen for?
- An unknown factor (this is the humongous X factor in this discussion). Maybe our conception about the likelihood of life is way off. Maybe it arises far less and requires intentional seeding of planets. Maybe we're the result of that? Maybe intelligent life created something that kills off other life (nanomachines consuming planets)? Maybe every civilization tries to find unlimited energy to get off the planet and that triggers a cataclysm (like a sci fi idea of a miniature black hole being created)?
The equation is just a framework to discuss the situation that is almost pseudoscience. It looks "mathematical", but the inputs are so unknown it's not much better than any roundtable discussion.
When you start any article or OP with "SCIENTISTS CLAIM THAT" or "STUDY SAYS" it's almost always a corruption of the facts, a distortion of the conclusion and an appeal to the authority of a "scientist", which could mean fucking anything in a set of degrees.
>>73276792
sorry m8 god only created us , maybe he has some troll planets with some life on it but that is it
>>73277524
>there is no singularity
now fear
Better hope we are. If not they're probably sitting there with shit eating grins, watching as we kill everyone else over imaginary races, imaginary gods, and nonsense ideals.
Personally hope we never find anything else. We'd just kill or get killed by them (for being fucking stupid) anyway.
>>73276889
1488
>>73277770
You can always expect to find these fedora posts in threads about science and aliens.
>>73277638
Most likely civilizations are separated by time and distance.
Civilization like ours could have existed 100 million years ago 24,000 light years away.
We would likely be destroyed culturally and our uniqueness erased if they contacted us.
>>73277770
Just imagine the technology gap if a civilization was just a million years ahead of us (a sliver of tim e on the cosmological scale). We would be like an ant colony to them. How would we communicate to an ant colony?
>>73278018
gasoline and a match 2bh
>>73277865
Its saturday reddit day what did you expect
>>73277433
>I'd say we are too late.
But in the time scale of the universe our planet and star is old. We'd be one of the first creations of life that had a stable world with lots of elements (higher elements require exploding stars and a few generations of recombination).
>>73277635
>the likihood of intelligence developing
My guess is that the problem is here. Evolution doesn't need superintelligence, and it mostly produces "good enough".
The most intelligent animals beside us are corvids and cetaceans and octopuses. They're so well suited to their environments and so adaptable they'll probably survive most changes. But they'll never need to evolve smarter, and may lack basics to do so (all but the octopus lack ways to manipulate objects well, the octopus is in an environment with few building blocks).
Take the success story of the crocodile. Adaptable, simple, found across the world, unchanged since dinosaur times. That's an evolutionary success.
Intelligence at our level may just be a fluke. An unnecessary adaptation that spirals out of control. And even then, remember that we humans live in a world where some people can manipulate atoms, and on the same planet humans live that don't know what a star is and use a bow and arrow technology level. We have highrises and mud houses at the same time.
It might be western civilization is the fluke. Enlightenment the thing that never comes. Maybe all other intelligent species get stuck there?
Other intelligent life is inevitable I'd say
>>73276792
Why are you making a big deal? Have you not ever come to this obvious conclusion yourself?
>>73277865
That's the great filter you idiot. When all of a planet cannot form a global civilization, it leads to ultimate destruction over nonexistent differences.
We're approaching that point pretty rapidly and just look at the shit that's happening. People want to withdraw from the EU because they hate Muslims. Nobody can form an alliance to go in and murder all the terrorists because money. And religion still exists. We either come together or kill each other.
>>73278018
Depends
Most people would try not to hurt the ants, try to care towards them because they're weaker than us
While some would willingly trample on them or flood the ant colony with water using a garden hose, simply because they can
If an intelligent civilization that's far superior to ours really does exist then I hope that its the former and not the latter
Funnily enough Bill Whittle did an interesting video on this. He reminded me of the role the Moon plays, and has played, not only in our evolution, but our survival.
>>73278051
Precisely. It's not far-fetched to think that we would perceive these civilizations as Gods
>>73276792
Scientists are fucking dumb faggots. Shouldn't they be trying to scare us into funding their ice cap research or something.
>>73278129
>Intelligence at our level may just be a fluke.
If the dinosaurs never went extinct there'd be no mammal bigger than a shrew. You need digits and long limbs to discover math and geometry. Super intelligent alien octopi aren't building spaceships.
>>73278129
Maybe only two-legged humanoids are able to develop high intelligence, and that rule is a norm in the universe?
We could be very well part of a bigger family spread out throughout the whole observable universe through panspermia
>>73276792
Every single one was wiped out by niggers breeding.
>>73276792
>futurology sensationalist nonsense
back to your shithole already
I reckon interstellar communication and travel are simply impossible.
>>73278018
If an intelligent species that advanced exists, there are still only few ways information can travel to them. Even if they've discovered more ways that information can travel (beyond EM spectrum) odds are they still have technology set up to find information if they're searching for other life.
>>73278288
It'll probably be like how the mayans saw the consquistadors akin to gods
>>73278161
I have the possibly naive belief that if a civilization becomes so advance to have experienced millions of years of sentience, that perhaps it has evolved culturally as a species to establish world peace. This would in turn would also reflect intergalactically. I least I would sincerely hope so. If not, then we are fucked
>>73277112
Yeah you can find it right next to the loo
>>73277433
Advanced civilizations will miniaturize and seclude themself in their own creative processes and virtual worlds.
The human brain uses 20W of energy. A bit more when focused on a mental task.
A generic laptop uses 20W of energy too. I could easily fit 200 laptops in my small apartment. 200 people and the floor would probably give out. If you can virtualize the brain and live in a VR space, you can suddenly support a population density of 100 people per square meter. if you can improve energy efficiency you can support way more. And unlike in the real world you can create more space by adding more computers because it's virtualized. You don't need to travel into the great unknown, you can create it right here, instantly accessible on demand.
And because a virtualized person/laptop is non-organic you can leave it in places where organic humans can't live, like in space, on the moon. As the technology becomes better a "person" and his private earth-sized VR space becomes smaller and smaller, meaning you can either virtualize up more people or even more space. Relatively speaking space will expand for these people.
So when every person that ever lived on earth, can live on a "VR planet" the size of a hundred earths with no strife or conflict. And all this can be contained in a computer that's the size of a breadcrumb. Will the pressure be to travel between he stars? And if you do travel, will you bother to conquer and bomb things and leave huge megastructures? Reality will be a slow moving syrup, boring and mundane, used as an energy siphon and watched to ensure you don't go break yourself somehow.
>>73278316
This was something that always disturbed me. The many mass extinctions that the earth undertook. Every single one was amazingly important to human evolution. It blows my mind how lucky we are in that aspect.
>>73278563
>If not, then we are fucked
Yep basically
Either that or I'd be happy even if they didn't care, you know?
Like the way /pol/acks act when we hear about kids in africa starving, its not our problem so why should we care?
>>73276792
SO its a theory?
why is this news?
A lot of the world population believes in aliens some more than other, some had alien encounters themself and knows 100%
unless we dont interact with them and public to the world than no zero fuck is given
>>73278765
I don't like this idea. Would it be biologically healthy for us to live our reality like that? 24 hours a day of computer usage can't be healthy.
>>73278348
The shape of your body is about manipulating the environment around you. Intelligence is developing a brain capable of considering the world around you and how to use it while simultaneously considering the future and simultaneously considering how to survive.
Most other animals on earth only consider enough to survive. Humans thought of all this and killed everything else to cement their existence.
>>73278765
>You wouldn't download a civilization
>>73278765
>advanced civilizations will miniaturize
You're already wrong in that assumption.
>>73278922
b-but what about muh 2D waifu?
>>73276792
>HEY GUYZ!.... THIS JUST IN: ALIENS PROBABLY EXIST!
Well no shit. Just about everyone already accepts this theory.
The real news story here is how much of my tax dollars went to pay for this bullshit "study"?
>>73278765
Even if something like this would be possible, people would rather go out into the real world and experience the things that nature actually created rather than something which was randomly generated by a computer algorithm
If there are no people left in the future who think like this, then that'd be one society that'd be going into doom
>>73279136
OH FUG
Forgot about the hentai
Oh yeah, scratch whatever I said
Fuck it, I want a personal universe right now filled with 2D waifus and loos everywhere
>>73278316
>If the dinosaurs never went extinct there'd be no mammal bigger than a shrew.
The dinosaurs not going extinct wouldn't mean that earth is frozen in a steady state. Everything keeps evolving and adapting.
Crocodiles and birds are still around. We haven't eaten all of them, they haven't eaten all of us. There is no mutual exclusion criteria that would prevent larger mammals to evolve to exist alongside dinousaurs.
Smaller mammals weren't an oppressed slave class that was liberated to conquer the world when some divine hand of god smashed the dinosaurs.
>Drake equation
Fug i might as well make 'scientific' discoveries based on star wars.
>>73278765
>You don't need to travel into the great unknown, you can create it right here
I'm prone to believe this is true. It panders to the idea that we are living in a simulation currently. As technological entropy is reached, the idea of "looking inwards" instead of towards the stars becomes more plausible. It would also explain the Fermi Paradox
>>73277638
>That pic
I need more!
>>73276792
This means absolutely nothing.
>>73278476
But if they would contact us, our culture would be contaminated and no longer unique.
If intelligence is rare, they might prefer to wait, and see what interesting ideas and solutions we come up with.
Contacting us would be a waste of potential.
>>73279009
kek
>>73279202
>Even if something like this would be possible, people would rather go out into the real world and experience the things that nature actually created
Why? I'm talking about hi fidelity reality-equivalent virtualization, not some pixelated entry-level VR.
Do you think an indian slum dweller would rather dwell in his crowded poverty and disease?
>"A convincing utopia that feels like the real world. Where I will never go hungry or sick? Nah fuck that"
>If there are no people left in the future who think like this, then that'd be one society that'd be going into doom
Why would it be doomed? The replacement of a physical city with a simulated megacity would somehow doom society?
Sounds like some appeal to natural fallacy to me.
>>73279641
>Where I will never go hungry or sick?
Would we reach a point where physical nutrition intake wouldn't be required?
>>73276792
Ayyy do you think aliens have memes?
>>73276792
>Scientists
>estimate
>futurism
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=F0tg4E4CU70
Some aussie posted this in the last thread.
The interesting part is 4 years later this announcement from a NASA astronaut is released
https://www.rt.com/usa/312364-aliens-nuclear-war-earth/
There are tons of articles but I just pulled the first result
Another official that was close to this astronaut commented later on that he believes the guy but that he often spent his time with high level officials that would spill the beans to him whenever they got together, so it's more of hearsay etc.
>>73278922
>Would it be biologically healthy for us to live our reality like that?
We wouldn't be biological anymore so it doesn't matter. You replace the brain cells with miniaturized neuron circuits. And then miniaturize them even more.
>>73279130
You assume that we're an advanced civilization. But we've just started scratching the surface.
We're advanced relative to 100 years ago, but that's an argument you could've made every year for a very long time. When we look back at 2016 from the perspective of 2216 our current day technology will be very primitive.
>>73279705
Circuit brain, runs on electric energy.
>>73276792
>Drake Eqn
>pretty much pure speculation
:^)
>>73277185
Venus and mercury don't have moons dildo.
>>73280221
ayyy I'm a good goy. Thanks ID man.
>>73276792
There's at least 8 intelligent species out there. The max. number is just a good guess. Conditions for complex life to evolve and flourish are very strict. Enjoy never meeting an ayyy lmao.
>>73277840
>>73278129
>>73278129
>the octopus is in an environment with few building blocks
I think that's less an issue than the fact they simply don't need to build. They're largely solitary outside of mating season, adaptable, have camouflage, fast, able, etc. The main reason we started building was out of necessity: protection from predation and elemental hazards.
I also remember reading some scientific paper that suggested octopi are hindered by their relatively short life span; most average 3-5 years before dying. If they lived long enough to contemplate, perhaps they'd start to wonder and imagine.
>>73280080
so humans have a top secrtet plane what looks like a ufo and disables nuclear warheads
i dont see any other reason why aliens from millions lightyears would come here disarm some nukes and then fly away millions of lightyears again
>>73281831
>top secret place
>in 1945 that sits and scans the whole world for nuclear warheads
>which didnt exist back then
Yeah, buddy.
>>73276792
This is what big bang believers actually think.
>>73281911
ah did not see the time
>in 1945 they did lie a lot its probably that the holohoax syndrome
>>73276792
The drake equation is shit. It adds a law to something we don't even know exists.
But they count niggers too
They're just unveiling new """"""""truths"""""""" to try to belittle humanity. Again
>>73276792
>scientists estimate
What else is new
>>73277770
>imaginary races
The fedora doesn't believe in race
> imaginary gods
The fedora is a fedora.
>and nonsense ideals
And which are the correct opinions then?
>>73278153
>religion still exists
This is isn't reddit, you dumb shit. You want to know why nobody will team up to kill the Muslims? Because nobody wants to actually kill them. It isn't a problem of money, idiot. Do you think the U.S., especially Nigbama, cares about what it fucking spends? Russia is the only country that's going to do shit about it and every person except for Donald Trump running wants to war with Russia. And fuck you Britain shouldn't leave the EU, you shouldn't have to be part of an organization which forces you to accept anybody into your country.
>>73277770
Let us leave this speck of filth behind and take the stars for our own.
>futurism.com
