Obviously Trump will be the victor in the end, major backing of police and military members and most Clinton supporters live in states where they've voted to make it difficult to have guns. Prove me wrong /pol/ make a better suggestion.
>http://www.270towin.com/maps/M43Ld
>>72296002
>trump
>win
>>72296200
>Clinton
>Win
Shill harder
>>72296200
>>72296002
>>72296002
>>72296002
How is he losing Montana and not taking Nebraska at large?
>>72296002
>PA
>Red
>>72296002
>florida
>PA
>red
Those days are done. Drumpf is too racist and will not get the cuban vote.
>>72297558
>Beats out two Cuban candidates in Florida
>Can't win Florida
>>72297784
>in the repulikkkan primary
Yeah whatever you say big guy :^)
>>72297544
Trump is targeting exactly the kind of demographic PA has and the kind Republicans ignored for decades.
>>72297784
>GOP primary versus general election
geee I wonder what that could mean
>>72297784
rubio won among cuban voters lol
>>72297870
Trump can "target" whoever he wants. What matters is who votes for him, and he is not winning a majority in PA in the general election.
>>72297940
how do you knkw this? Im not disagreeing with you, I just want to know how you came to that conclusion.
Florida will be red.
t. South Floridian
>>72297859
Trust me, those Cubans aren't voting for Abuela Clinton over Trump. Best case scenario for her they don't vote at all.
>>72297558
Except for this guy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_cHRdW4Y1k
>>72298019
>>72296002
>MT
>Blue in general election
Pick one.
>>72298006
A few reasons:
1) PA hasn't gone red since the 80s.
2) In 2014, a year with historically low voter turnout, the Democratic candidate for governor STILL won by a comfortable margin.
3) Presidential elections generally have turnout that is at least 20% higher than the typical mid-term election
4) Higher turnout typically favors Democratic politicians.
Put 2 + 2 together and you can see that the Democratic candidate will win PA comfortably.
>>72298006
lol the latest PA poll shows hillary with a like 13 point lead in PA.
>>72296200
>lol2.jpg
Shills not getting paid enough anymore?
>>72298156
Current polls are near useless this far out and without Trump beginning the shift to the general.
>>72298247
>>72296002
But seriously, looking at the map you actually linked, the projections are waaaay overoptimistic, desu. Assuming PA is a given and Wisconsin is a swing State sounds like a tall order. Unless you have data which we aren't aware of, your projection is very off.
Nobody here can honestly give you a better map unless they work for a Campaign.
![wYNYjGS[1].png](https://i.imgur.com/arr0y51.png "wYNYjGS[1].png")
Here's a more realistic map, trumplet.
>>72298453
>>72298453
Clinton has no chance to win Florida, people only voted for Obama here because a Mormon will never be president because they're known nutters.
>>72298006
Niggers from Africa-tier shitholes like West Philadelphia and Pittsburgh have ensured PA will be blue for decades to come.
>>72298560
Clinton got 20k more votes than Trump in Florida. That's with a historically low dem voter turn out. Stop being so fucking delusional. However, I will enjoy the butthurt Trumpcucks on pol and the_donald will spout once Wolf Blitzer announces Hillary is the president-elect
wew fuckin lad
This is honestly what I think
Berniebots are going to be so massively butthurt they will not even bother or just vote Trump
>>72298453
>Utah red
>b-b-but they voted Cruz!
Kill yourself
>>72298873
>blue VT
>CO still not red
I dunno senpai
>>72298873
>>72298873
you are either:
1. mentally ill
2. following your first election
3. blinded by the meme magicks D Trump is emanating
>>72298873
This right here, most will vote third party, for Trump, or not at all.
>>72298812
I don't understand people like you, Hilary is a fucking monster, she's had scores of people killed and works like an actual fascist in her foreign policy.
>>72298300
>without Trump beginning the shift to the general.
dude, all the people who hate Hillary hate Hillary already
Trump isn't going to change their opinions. At this point, polls get pretty important because we know the presumptive nominees & everyone knows who trump and hillary are
>>72299014
the US needs a ruthless leader, that's why #imwithHer
>>72296002
It's too early to call it op. People are way to finicky when it comes to politics. Anything could stir voters to change stances for a number of reasons.
>>72296002
>MT blue
>PA red
>NE not full red
a bit of shiggy diggy going on. i believe that NH may turn red this election cycle but whoever the republican nominee is wont win the presidency
>>72299090
>the US needs a ruthless leader
Except towards SJWs, dindus, and Islamists.
>>72298812
>Clinton got 20k more votes than Trump in Florida
>Hillary was versing 1 opponent
>Trump was versing 3 opponents, one of which was a fucking senator of the state
wew lad
>>72299105
This.
>>72298873
id say most of the berniebots wont turn out at all, even if they are pissed as fuck about hillary they wont get involved in the general
chances are another occupy movement will happen with commies flooding the streets of every city
>>72298453
Alabama will always be a red state. try again.
>>72299229
>trump facing 1 candidate was somehow going to make more ppl vote for him
the kasich+cruz+rubio votes were strictly anti-trump, I know what I'm talking about. You're just an aussie shitposter speculating and regurgitating talking points you've seen on /pol/. Do not comment on my country's politics. I do not give a shit about yours.
>>72299105
Haha I realize this, I just like doing predictions this far out for the heck of it. The original map I posted has major errors in it as have been pointed out, but you don't spark a discussion about electoral politics by providing an accurate picture of the situation. I just wanted other people's opinions.
>>72299198
Can any Seppo tell me why DC is so liberal?
>>72299447
Its literally full of blacks. All the jobs are from the federal government, the only white people that live there are visitors who are elected representatives. Their city council is nearly all black and one was arrested for crack cocaine and later reelected.
>>72299423
>the kasich+cruz+rubio votes were strictly anti-trump
A lot were but in a 1v1 Trump still would have won Florida against any of the candidates, polling companies do ask preferences (although It's rarely reported) and enough people would have gone Trump in a 1v1 in Florida
>I know what I'm talking about
No you literally don't
>You're just an aussie shitposter
And yet I know more about the subject than you. Pretty fucking pathetic mate.
>>72299423
Except you're the biggest tard out of this entire thread who has no knowledge of the history and trends of US history. Fuck of you goddamn mongoloid simp to the cuck rock you crawled out from.
>>72298881
Mormons will vote for whoever the church tells them to.
Protip: The church isn't going to tell them to vote for anyone that says they are for abortion.
>>72298006
Socialists or conservatives can't win urban states.
>>72297870
The problem with PA is that even though the geographical bulk of the state is Republican, the big cities like Philly and Pittsburg always vote Democrat and take the election. Which, in turn, leads to policies that cause the cities to continue to grow, while the rest of the state becomes increasingly economically depressed.
Keep in mind, we're a state that couldn't pass a budget for nearly nine months, and is being bled dry of resources because there's no severance tax on natural gas.
>>72299546
Cheers lad.
>>72299586
dude high primary turnout results have nothing to do with general election results
primary turnout just correlates with competitive races & this election year is one. trump may have a record breaking amount voting for him but also there's a record breaking amount voting AGAINST him.
>>72299586
Polls in the west coast are closing in 5 seconds, where we'll make perhaps a historic projection.....
CNN can now project that Hillary Clinton is the president-elect of the United States. Clinching the nomination with California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada.
Read this in Wolf Blitzer's voice to prepare yourself for November you trumplet faggot.
>>72299676
Turning Wilkes Barre is the primary battle. After this, it becomes a hard fight in Pittsburgh and trying to do SOMETHING in Philly. Once Wilkes Barre is turned, THEN we can ask ourselves if PA will change. There are challenges but it's possible to the ambitious. (With or without Trump.)
>>72299703
No problem you beautiful Aussie bastard.
>>72299676
Lots of states are getting ass-raped by their left-leaning cities right now. It fucking sucks.
>>72296002
>>72296002
This is the only path Trump has here.
>>72300121
You think Michigan and Nevada will really be in play for a general election?
>>72300095
The thing is, after this election, I predict gridlock is going to hit MANY state governments. Rural voters would be content with shutting down the Capitals rather than bothering with any kind of government. They have so little to lose, and they can inflict pain on the cities quickly. This is a bad thing, but the thing is concessions and cooperation isn't quite possible under Donor-based politics. So I genuinely worry for some places (like PA,) but it's hard to get shit out of the rut if we keep using the same thinking that got us there.
>>72300108
>new york
>red
nope.
>>72300108
srry dumb crop
>>72296002
New Hampshire and Nevada have a pretty good chance of going red this cycle, based on primary turnout numbers.
>>72300276
Michigan more so because his platform is domestic manufacturing. Nevada is the most likely out of the remaining blues besides maybe new hampshire but I doubt that.
>>72300276
>>72300518
no
michigan will NOT be in play
michigan is said to be in play every year for republicans but it never happens
neither is Pennsylvania in play
>>72300369
>All those states go red buy SC becomes blue
>>72300565
It's either Michigan or Iowa and Colorado
>>72300565
The thing is, until there is a skillful effort to realign with those states, we can't simply write them off. Reagan Democrats don't vote Republican because they (rightfully) are afraid of being conned. But Reagan Democrats are moving into the Republican party which pushes out the Reaganauts, because Americans are getting poorer (and therefore '19th Century.')
Trump may not reach there, but it should be possible if given a square chance. But it would take 'time' to set it up.
my guess
>>72299423
>I know what I'm talking about
Usually when people need to say "I know what I'm talking about" they don't actually know what they're talking about.
>>72300785
cheeky NH
>>72300764
trump believes his trade message actually means anything lol
it really doesn't, he lost ohio spite his trade message
there's really no correlation. i mean if Ohio & Pennsylvania cared, they would have voted for Bernie
michigan went for Bernie but Michigan is just too liberal for it go to trump
>>72298148
The problem with your assessment is that you're judging by party. Trump isn't a typical Republican, he gets criticized as being too much like a Democrat and those criticisms aren't unfounded. Once the general election forces people to watch him actually talk, without just seeing whatever is cherry-picked and spun by their favorite leftist echo-chamber, I would expect a lot of voters who have been alienated by the far-left, but who support moderate-left policies, will start to vote for him.
Besides that, Hillary is really easy to hate and Trump knows how to tear people apart. It's not like he'll run out of ammunition against her any time soon, either.
That said, PA probably won't flip.
>>72300121
That's the most realistic for trump yes, but MI and OH won't be red. Florida will probably go blue as well.
>>72300897
I think this is pretty solid analysis. Trump is by no means a traditional Republican, he's not going after traditional Republican voters. He assumes they'll follow him and he's not going out of his way to get them. His message is aimed at the "average" American and I do really think if you take away the names his beliefs line up much more closely to your average voter.
The attack ad writes itself for Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania is a big coal state. Trump wants to bring jobs back and stop the EPA from eliminating "earth dangerous" jobs. Meanwhile, Hillary literally said she wants to "put coal workers out of business."
>>72299588
Wanna take a guess at whether or not Hillary has said she's for abortion?
>>72300880
oh sorry i forgot to mention that bernie & trump have similar trade messages, thats why i mentioned bernie
i really don't think they care desu oddly enough
My guess for if bernie ran independent.
Keep in mind this is being VERY generous to both hillary and bernie.
I'm guessing bernie would siphon enough votes from crooked hillary in new york that it actually opens the state up for donald to rape it.
>>72300880
>there's really no correlation. i mean if Ohio & Pennsylvania cared, they would have voted for Bernie
Great point....
>>72300897
If PA is uncontestable, then something has to open up for Trump to win. If nothing opens up, electorally, then forget Trump, the priority then is to make something open up.
People forget about proximity in politics, because we think politics is just about ideas. Geography is just as important as ideology, and the Republicans have a terribad hand when it comes to the presidential, even IF they have advantage to take the Senate.
>>72301060
Forgot picture.
>>72301018
Niggers don't care about coal. She's going to easily win PA.
>>72300880
He only lost Ohio because of everyone who crossed over to vote for Kasich.
>>72301093
>bernie cucks shillary out of California
maybe I should be nicer to bernouts now
>>72301098
But what DO black people care about? What makes them turn out for Hilary?
The thing about the Anti-PA group is that it hasn't produced hard demographic data beyond mere snapshot polls for a hypothetical matchup that's even yet to be. Just because something hasn't happened, doesn't mean its impossible. (But I'm also saying I could be wrong too.)
>>72301147
that doesn't explain Pennsylvania
also, doesn't make sense why they'd cross over to vote for a free trade candidate
just justifies the fact the rust belt gives no shit about trade even more
>>72299447
It's simple. People who work for politicians, which is a large part of the workforce in DC, are paid with taxes. Dems grow government and raise taxes, which means more job security. That and a large amount of getto dindus.
>>72301174
In all likelyhood it might actually go to trump.
There's actually a very broad field of republicans in california, all the liberals congregate around the bay area, where bernie could potentially rally around and siphon SHITLOADS of hillary votes into his gaping socialist vote-hole of darkness.
t. commifornian
>>72301228
You know what they care about m8.
>>72301228
>But what DO black people care about?
gibsmedats
>What makes them turn out for Hilary?
The Clintons built a hell of a network amongst black churches.
>>72301233
Kasich won Ohio because he camped in Ohio. If given enough of a head start, even I could beat an Olympic athlete in a race.
>>72301228
blacks don't vote, they get bribed to. they get in a bus stacked with little caesars and soda and drive around to every polling station they can find.
>>72301288
.... cmon son
Honestly, it'll be tough for Trump. The big six will have to swing his way
FL - spics may hate him too much
MI - too many dindus
OH - Maybe if he gets help from Kasich, idk, tough sell
PA - trade talk will help but eh
IL - fucking doubt it. Way too many Obama worshippers
VA - Doubt it. Too many DC types with establishment jobs
>>72297784
The panhandle of Florida is like 85% republican, while the south Florida is about 50-50 split.
We have a repub governor and repub controlled congress.
I predict the state goes to Trump.
>>72301326
wat
"he camped in Ohio"?
>>72301329
Don't forget, Reagan came from here.
It's probably something in the oranges.
>>72301322
>The Clintons built a hell of a network amongst black churches.
This. People sincerely thought she was praising Obama to no advantage.
>>72301372
Kasich campaigned in Ohio earlier and longer than all the other Candidates. So like Trump was in campaigning in several states while Kasich ignored them, to focus exclusively on Ohio. Kasich is a politician, so he took advantage of all that extra time. Trump spoke about it.
>>72296002
Screencap this for when /pol/ is on suicide watch
>>72301334
florida is mainly cuban spics, who tend to vote democrat. all the old people help him as well.
>>72301372
Kasich has never had the resources nor the optics to win multiple states. So he basically throws all his chips into one state and hopes he does well there. He did it with New Hampshire. He never campaigned in South Carolina or any other state that day, only NH in hopes he'd do well there.
>>72301439
Trump also got misled by a fake poll from Florida.
>>72301482
>FL blue
>NH red
KEK
>>72301329
I think he meant if Bernie ran 3rd party to take votes from Clinton.
>>72301482
>BREAKING NEWS: Local anon mistakes Hillary Clinton for Barack Obama
>>72301417
He also made sure that it lost its white majority by starting the amnesty train and turning it from the white conservative paradise (that ran openly anti-mexican campaigns) that fostered him into a spic infested liberal shithole.
>>72301417
But what does the population density look like? It looks impressive when that much of the state is red, but it doesn't tell us how close the vote was or how many people voted.
I know that the metropolitan areas with high population density are all blue. Are there really enough people outside of them to turn the state red in the general election?
>>72296002
>Montana
>Virginia
>Blue
>Nebraska
>Contested
>>72301345
i agree, i think florida will go to trump but Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico for sure isn't going to Trump
i don't think ohio will go to Trump. 1/3 of all republicans in ohio said they wouldnt vote for trump.
>>72301439
with all the coverage trump gets it i feel like they both cancel each other out lol
i still seriously think the trade message is irrelevant in these states despite what pundits say
The O'Reilly Factor did a poll, and found Democratic Women to be the least engaged in this race, and Republican Men to be the most engaged in this race. Turnout is going to be the largest factor, just like every other race.
http://primarymodel.com/
As of now, 'the stars align' for Trump. But the thing is, it's hard to mesh geographically how this plays out. We will see though.
>>72301255
Yeah I have friends that hate both Hillary and Sanders but will vote for them because they want to keep their federal jobs.
>>72301551
Well maybe in that case. But the likelihood of that happening is 0%
>>72301496
From what I've seen Cubans are normally pretty conservative.
>>72297859
You arent getting anywhere near the nigger support you did in '08 and '12, dickless. Sorry about it, you're gonna lose and you're gonna lose big. Trump will paint America red.
>>72301595
>i still seriously think the trade message is irrelevant in these states despite what pundits say
Nobody gives a shit about economic policy. LBJ put it best. "Speaking about economic policy is like pissing in your pants. You feel the heat but nobody gives a damn." Trump needs to make appeals beyond economics, which he naturally does, but he doesn't focus the message enough.
>>72301644
From my personal experience, anyone from the Caribbean comes to Florida to be a Right-Winger.
>>72301582
In a scenario where bernie is running and taking votes from clinton? Possibly.
Trump would need some MAJOR handicaps to win a stronghold like california in a gernal election. New York may be in play for him, however, but I'm not too sure even about that.
>>72301675
Hispanics against trump will pick of the loss of black vote. And you're really reaching by hoping they don't show up. Obama will be stumping hard for clinton.
>>72301586
You have to include some errors to get attention anon. Just following Trump's media strategy, create a discussion.
>>72301633
why not 1%?
>>72298757
This. PA is basically high population nigger reservations on both sides with whites sandwiched in between. The combination of middle-class white-guilt suburban cucks and the nigger votes farms in the cities probably can't be overcome.
Actual results here. I'm from the future.
>>72301688
Trump is pelleting his economic and foreign policy in a way the general public can understand though.
>>72301735
Because he knows he'll probably end up "dead of natural causes in his home" if he does.
Also, FBI this isn't a threat from myself or anyone I know. Just a joke.
>>72301601
Whites are the most under-appreciated source of votes.
Consider that 50% of people voting is high for a presidential race. Pulling more whites who don't bother voting can help you win.
>>72301751
>CO
>red ever again
heh
>>72301751
>maine
>split
Nigger, maine nearly fucking threw trump out of their state.
>>72301751
You aren't from the future, but this scenario feels subconsciously plausible to me. There is a chance you may have access to data as well.
>>72301814
Dems too high to go to the polling booth
>>72301721
What spics are voting D that wouldn't be voting D otherwise? Legal Hispanic immigrants are some of the toughest advocates for tighter immigration laws. I don't get this meme that you have to lighten up on immigration to win Latinos. This is only the case if you want the votes of future citizens once you pass amnesty and we all know they'll go Democrat once you do.
>>72301844
ah, you're right... Washington will probably go trump too
>>72301844
>>72301879
>implying there won't be free weed at the booths
wew
>>72301876
>Legal Hispanic immigrants are some of the toughest advocates for tighter immigration laws.
t. person who has never lived in a hispanic state
Nevadan living in Las Vegas, this is NOT true.
At all.. Mexicans really hate Trump, legal or illegal.
>>72301802
That's the thing. A realignment disrupts the game and could bring in new populations. Politics is much more than meets the eye.
>>72301879
Nah, Trump would need an endorsement from the tree king first.
>>72301916
Trump has made alot of friends in the Casinos. They'll pull for him much more effectively than ads ever could.
>>72296002
Am I deluded to think he'll flip New York red?
ITT: nobody looking at Trump's historic unfavorable numbers with Hispanics, women, blacks
No, none of those swing states are going red. None.
>>72301876
>Legal Hispanic immigrants are some of the toughest advocates for tighter immigration laws.
This is wrong tbqh senpai.
Sure some may be outspoken, but most just want their family members to come in too, and are afraid of being deported because they're retarded.
>>72301876
Immigrants have been working to get citizenship for the past year to vote against republicans, probably longer/before trump. They're breeding like crazy and more of them are turning 18.
Deal with it lad, old whites are dying much faster than young conservative whites can replace them, and hispanics are flooding in and hate trump.
>>72296002
This is what Berniefags actually believe
If you look at political party strength by state, Republicans are miles ahead. There are more than three times as many red state governments than blue state governments, and almost three times as many purple ones as blue ones.
The house and senate are also very telling. Republicans haven't had it this good in 100 years or so.
I think this translates into an easy Trump win.
>>72301417
>half of the most populous state in the union is cucked out of their votes because of a bunch of faggots on the coast
Honestly, California just needs to fuck off into the pacific already
>>72301962
#manintree
>>72301986
There's a very small chance.
>>72301986
yeh
>>72301738
Which is why his path to victory requires Hillary's failure not his success. He has to disaffect the people who would vote for Clinton. He has to make her look like a fool to decrease how many people come out for her. There is basically nothing he can do to increase his numbers.
That's why you should expect him on the offense non-stop. He will hound her and keep her on defense. Once she starts playing defense, that's when she will slip up.
>>72301997
Look at Reagan's ratings.
>>72302030
>the house and senate are also very telling
I'll take new to politics for 500 alex.
Most realistic map desu senpai
all hail dictator trump, vote or die
>>72301986
Yes. He mentions it all the time because it hasn't been done since Reagan. He wants to have that image but I don't think its possible.
>>72301334
Florida and Virginia are definitely going red, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania will all be competitive. Worst case scenario, Trump eviscerates Clinton so brutally that Demoshits just stay home in droves.
>>72302042
eh... he split is about 60-40 in favor of dems
The problem with CA is that it encourages liberals to move their by its own existence. Spics come for gibs and whites come for their hippie dream girl fantasies.
>>72302066
NY will never go red.
>>72302010
Legal in the sense they didn't get citizenship status by hiding out long enough till they qualified.
But in actually, went through the right channels from the get go
>>72302090
She doesn't need to play defense. A general election isn't a primary. Constantly being on the attack makes you look pretty dumb. You can try and have adds do it, but there's nothing he can run against clinton that hasn't already been said that everyone doesn't know about yet.
And kiss the high energy entertaining speeches goodbye. If he's smart, anyway.
>>72301698
Bernie seems dead-set on supporting Clinton, an independent run is unlikely. Hopefully once his supporters see all the money they gave him to beat Clinton get funneled through the DNC straight into Clinton's campaign they'll decide not to vote.
And as much as I'd love to see NY turn red, I don't think it's possible. In the primaries, there were about 870,000 Republican voters and 1,820,000 Democrat voters. I know that there will be Sanders voters who will stay home and independents who will vote Republican, but I don't know if that can cut into the Democrats' numbers enough to matter.
>>72302134
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-no-ronald-reagan/
sorry its from nate brass
>>72302042
As a resident of the valley, I pray every day of my life that a major earthquake banishes San Fransisco into the depths of the ocean, never to be seen again.
>>72302022
Why the fuck you AK go bernie over trump?
>>72302172
God damit. Enough with the Virginia meme. VA is a Blue State. Plain and simple. Nothing wrong with that either. But we're here to talk about paths.
The good news is that we aren't talking about trying to get Cruz elected. That would be outright impossible.
>>72302237
Nate has been so wrong, so many times, that doing the opposite of what he says can make you rich. Quite literally, 'Harbringers of Doom' actually exist in the Marketplace and in Politics.
>>72302285
No, this isn't opinionated though. He's actually using numbers & graphs for this one in comparison to Reagan.
>>72302234
Trump needs to double down on the bernie should run independant shit every time he loses a state.
Honestly /pol/ needs to start running some memetic operations on reddit to trick his cronies into forcing him to do it.
>>72301721
Hispanics have the lowest turnout of any demo, and Obama is a completely discredited trainwreck
>>72302090
> implying that niggers aren't an immovable Democrat voting block that are bribed with gibsmedats and free chicken
> implying that niggers will even give a shit about how awful of a person Hillary is as long as the gibs keep rolling
I still think that Trump has a good shoot at winning the general, if the statistical election model predicted him winning, I don't think that this will be the first time they're wrong. I think he's going to have to get the overwhelming majority of the white vote and appeal to non-Mexican Hispanics.
>>72302352
>http://blog.dilbert.com/post/143431313681/the-unfavorability-illusion
Here is the counter response I offer. Take it or leave it, it's fine by me either way.
>>72302256
Leftists think memeatarians love Bernie.
>>72302409
>completely discredited train wreck
>over 50% approval
Sure thing lad. I bet you think Unemployment is over 30% too
>>72301288
Oh right we all forgot about the three people that live in Siskiyou County who'll turn the election around.
Let me guess, you're some retard from SoCal?
>>72302353
As long as a third of his supporters vote 3rd party or don't vote at all I think Clinton faces some serious problems. I think Sanders has made it cool not to vote for Clinton and I think this will stick with millennials.
>obviously
>>72302424
Adam Scott is hilarious. His twitter account is like 80% pro-Trump tweets while claiming to be uninterested in Trump personally. Its like watching Morning Joe.
>>72302500
From exit polls yesterday, less people said they wouldn't vote for Clinton in a general than those from the RNC said they wouldn't vote for trump. Take that as you will, but it seems cruz/kasich supporters may be more of a thorn in trumps side than bernbots are to clinton.
>>72302551
Kek. When you love a winner, it's easy to appear uninterested.
>>72302230
You will be surprised. Not pleasantly.
>>72302230
There is nothing he can say about policy that voters care about. He isn't going to get anymore voters than he will have by July. Most people know who they're voting for, the only thing you can change is whether they actually go out to vote.
It won't be like what he's doing now. But the core of his bid will be about maintaining an image and ruining Hillary's.
>>72302285
the only reason virginia went blue was because of black voters coming out for Obama, they wont have even half the number of black voters this time
>>72302623
I can tell you're a disillusioned trumpsheep that has officially closed his mind to reality. That's okay, there were a lot of mittens shills in 2012 on here. I got used to it.
>>72302424
i love how people say "JUST WAIT ONCE TRUMP STARTS ATTACK HILLARY! JUST WAIT AND YOU SEE HER FAVORABILITY NUMBERS PLUMMET!!"
i'm not sure if you realized this but shes been attacked by republicans for 20 years. trump isn't dealing with jeb, marco or ted.
he's dealing with hillary.
the woman has dealt with two decades of campaigning, two decades of attacks, and two decades of debates.
the people who hate hillary have already expressed it, i'm doubting how many more people you can really get to join that
however, favorability polls are mental gymnastics so lets look at polls.
hillary has a +11 lead against trump in the latest polls and BOTH hillary + trump's favorables are still plummeting
so, yeah.
>>72302353
Don't worry, we have been for months. Here are some examples, you just pick the message you think will work on your audience based on how far left they are and how entrenched they are in party politics.
"If Bernie doesn't get the nomination, I'm not voting. We need to teach the Democratic party that we won't be ignored."
"We should vote for Jill Stein if Bernie doesn't get the nomination! We need to teach the establishment that our votes count!"
"If we vote Trump now things will get so bad that we'll win every election for years!"
"You know, Trump is actually pretty moderate, and Clinton is basically a Republican. At least Trump is anti-establishment like Bernie."
>>72296762
I like this image. Can I save it?
>>72296002
Drafting a great historical document... need /Pol/'s help.... TOP KEKS will make it on.
>>72302498
Keep talking smack like that and you'll never taste another sacramento county orange again you fucker.
>>72302682
You say this like her unfavorability numbers are low...
>>72302596
I wish we'd stop taking hypothetical polls seriously at this point. If we did, the matchup would be Kasich vs Sanders. Campaigns need to focus on what's in front of them and take each stage as it comes.
>>72302634
By that logic PA should go Red and Michigan is in play. More importantly, NOVA is for Clinton. That's all that probably matters.
>>72302682
I hate to shit talk people, but Hiliary isn't known for her campaign skills. If anything, she is specifically vulnerable to a Hard Seller like Donald Trump, which means that her weaknesses will be exaggerated.
Talk to me in September about the Polls, and by then it'll be possible to predict the Winner.
>>72302491
He is a complete disaster that only braindeads like yourself approve of
>>72302701
Save it, share it, spread it.
>>72302134
stop comparing this to Reagan
>>72302627
True. He's going to run the email "scandal" hard. But democrats are already tired of hearing about, bernie said who gives a fuck. There's really nothing he can say or point out to ruin her reputation. That's the down side to republicans running a never ending smear campaign against her for the past 9 years/longer.
However, he runs the risk of ruining his own image further with key voting blocks he still has a chance at, like moderate women. Because young people and minorities are gone for him.
>>72302709
>implying
>>72302230
Also
>She doesn't need to play defense.
She doesn't need to do anything, but she will. Trump's goal will be to do what Obama did to McCain and Romney. Keep them talking about why they aren't Obama while he talks about how cool he is. He needs to control the overtone
>>72302285
>>72301334
>>72302172
Virginia went Red for Bush, it'll go Red for Trump. Not enough people in NOVA and Richmond like Hillary to outweigh the rest of the state. Trump isn't like Mittens, he actually has some support in the north.
>>72302797
The aim isn't necessarily to make him run independent but to make his supporters have that mindset.
>>72302797
If you could be so kind as to point out where I ever insinuated that Bernie would run independent, that would be great.
If you read a few posts back, I even outright said he won't.
>>72302673
I can tell you came here illegally from reddit or leftpol, you have to go back
>>72302818
>By that logic PA should go Red and Michigan is in play.
exactly
>>72302861
You know what. People keep insisting on VA, so maybe I'll keep a more open mind about it. All of this though is just mindless NEET speculation without access to data.
>>72302818
I mean, exit polls are not hypothetical. It's a straight up question. If clinton/trump is the nominee would you vote for her? Definitely yes, Maybe, Definitely no.
>>72302820
>54% of the country is braindead
And that 54% will determine who runs the country the next 30 years. Have fun. Might as well kill yourself now.
>>72302818
>she is specifically vulnerable to a Hard Seller like Donald Trump, which means that her weaknesses will be exaggerated.
i mean donald trump being a racist, sexist, etc. has all been exaggerated
the point is Hillary knows what attacks hes going to spew out but both of them have missiles to throw at each other
>>72302885
This is exactly it. Just keep telling lefties that supporting a third party helps send a message to the Dems or gets them more federal funding, tell them to write in Sanders' name on the ballot or abstain out of contempt for Clinton. They dislike her immensely after the primary season, a lot of them won't vote if you keep telling them they shouldn't.
>>72302854
It'll be an interesting few months leading to November for sure.
I'm just super hype about Cleveland. I want to see if cruz really goes full autist and cries on TV. Because there's no endorsing Trump at this point.
>>72302852
>jefferson will never be a state
>even if it was sacramento would never be a part of it
feels oranges man
why the fuck can't we just break up this state up, nobody cares about our lone star status.
>>72302918
Alrighty then.
>>72302939
People are extremely fickle. No result taken now will hold across time. By the way, >>72302976 , the Democrats run the Federal Government, but they have extremely little power in Local and State governments. Which are equally as important, but far less sexy.
>>72303000
If you say so.
>>72302893
hahaha oh please, I trolled reddit for fun before trump and sanders. I was here when mittens got btfo and /pol/ was on literal suicide watch. This is probably your first election, or you're super fucking old spouting off memes like a good little sheep.
>>72303061
>you will never see ted bawling on the conference floor, snot rolling down his face and leaking into his mouth
>>72303058
lol bernie or bust is a minority in nonrelevant states in general election like new york and california that will be going democratic no matter what
no body will care about bernie in November lmao. everyone knows what trump is trying to pull with that independent shit, even the crowd in his april 26th victory speech started giggling a little bit
>>72302976
Well... those favorability polls don't ask people if they're registered to vote or intend to vote in the next election. I agree Obama has high approval ratings but that doesn't necessarily translate into voter turnout for Clinton. There's fairly high voter apathy among the Dems. Their primary turnout at least is much lower than 2008 and 2012. Clinton might rally the troops against Trump but its much more difficult to get people to vote against something/someone rather than for.
>>72302918
>b
>t
>f
>o
>>72303099
>>72302818
Since 76 every election Virginia voted republican until Obama, that is the norm Obama is an aberration
>>72302848
>There's really nothing he can say or point out to ruin her reputation.
It's not always what you say, but how you say it.
It's all about shifting the overtone window. But it's dangerous because it usually ends up in them apologizing for being insensitive.
Considering Trump hasn't cracked much yet, he's the best out of any candidate to attempt this.
>>72301595
Why wouldn't Colorado go Trump? He wants to legalize weed for medicinal use and leave it to the States for recreational
Lots of people talking about polls lately need to remember that the polls have displayed sampling issues across the board for several years now.
No one predicted how badly 2014 would be for Democrats and polls have been consistently underrating Trump relative to his actual performance.
I think that the people that the polls haven't been sampling from are probably a lot of the white people that had essentially concluded both parties were bad. They have renewed hope in the more based candidates coming out of the Republicans and particularly Trump.
>>72302022
> August 2016
> LaQuintasha, a loyal Hillary voter, has finally been given access to the internet by a Bernie Sanders grassroots nonprofit
> She skips over Facebook, Twitter and WorldStarHipHop and goes immediately to The Daily Kos
> "We've been lied to... OUR ASSES NEED BERNIE N SHEEIT."
> Previously internet-deprived ghetto niggers begin waking up to the political revolution
> Young groids begin reading Marx and Engels
> "DA ONE PUHCENT YO"
> Election Day 2016
> Killer Mike raps live on TV about Hillary
> "OOGA BOOGA WORLD PEACE SOCIALISM MUHFUGGA"
> Black turnout is at a record high
> Hillary gets zero percent of the black vote
> Trump is defeated in a landslide
> Bernie is president, having been the first independent in decades to win the presidency
> Loud knock at the door
> "I'm done wit yo bitch whitey"
> Berncuck wakes up in his cuckshed
> Thanks Tyrone for pleasing his wife and apologizes for slavery again
> "H-hey Tyrone? I don't want to sound privileged, but have you considered voting for Bernie Sanders if he runs as an independent?"
> "Imma vote Hillary nigga"
> "That's okay! See you around!"
> Berncuck's wife says, "You know, Bernie has been doing better in places that have higher rates of internet access. I'll bet Tyrone would come around if he weren't so impoverished."
>>72303203
virginia is an establishment foothold + demographic changes
>>72303271
do u really think colorado voters just care about DUDE WEED LMAO
>>72303074
Modoc County reporting in. Sacramento can burn.
>Jefferson will never be a state
Not with that attitude, Anon.
>>72303213
>you will live to see Trump call Hillary a lying sack of shit on national television
>>72303182
It's true that they're CURRENTLY apathy. Mainly because the fucking idiots forget to check their registration status and got kicked off the party or didn't register in time... Coincidentally a lot of the more vocal ones are bernouts that claim thats somehow voter suppression. I've been having a good time making fun of them on the Jewbook facebook pages about it.
But, there is still plenty of time for them to register, even as independents, for the general. And correct me if I'm mistaken, democratic voters tend to not show up in primaries, historically.
fuck off this will be the election
>>72299090
Ruthless? Are you fucking retarded?
Shill harder you cuck
>>72303213
This "women don't like her" thing he said is blowing up in his face already. And that's childs play.
>>72303326
>do u really think colorado voters just care about DUDE WEED LMAO
what else would they care about? powder quality on the slopes?
>>72303408
idk they already have it legalized dont they?
>>72303408
>check the fresh gnar bruh, fucking crunchy. pack a bowl
>>72303444
If a republican is elected it'll probably be gone. And just the possibility of it is enough to scare stoners to go to the polls en masse.
>>72303326
Colorado resident
Most people here are too high to know what's happening in politics
I can't wait to see trump fucking destroy Hillary with ads. He's going to be the man that Bernie couldn't be.
>>72303489
Colorado also.
Fuck this state.
>>72303444
They do but when crispy creme was in the race he was like "enjoy your weed until Jan 20th 2017"
>>72303511
Just moved to Colorado. What have I gotten myself into?
>>72303495
plz stop this meme
both of them are going to spew shit at each other
trump has done and said some stupid shit and hillary has done and said some stupid shit
>>72303371
They certainly can register and I imagine a good deal will. I know a family member of mine was working on a voter registration drive a few weeks ago for people in NY even though it was far past the deadline for the primary.
Dems vote less often overall, I don't know the exact numbers for the primaries just that this year has seen an overall drop in voters since the past two contests when Obama was on the ballot. I just don't know if Clinton is really inspirational as he was to voters.
>>72303489
>>72303511
>>72303541
at least you have the broncos
>>72299676
>>72301334
You forget how well Rubio does in cities
>>72303390
> Trump wins PA
> Trump doesn't win Florida
Are you niggering me?
>>72303555
Hillary has a little advantage since the media has been eating her out constantly. But by the same token the GOP has no idea how to save ammo
>>72303403
Not really. The news will always pearl clutch whenever something like this happens. It mostly depends on whether he gives in. He's fucked the moment he says he went too far because that gives them legitimacy in their claim. They're just fishing right now.
>>72303541
Anyone here not from Colorado?
>>72303489
Is it true you're essentially getting invaded by Californians trying to escape from all the Mexicans?
>>72303567
She certainly is not. But I could have sworn that for general elections, Dems come out in huge numbers. And in local and midterm elections they vanish.
It explains the success of the 2014 midterms, which a lot of sad souls are placing quite a bit of faith in; in terms of being prophetic to what will happen in 2016.
>>72303663
Massachusetts.
>>72303618
People are concerned with the Cuban influence. Cubans are not like Mexicans politically though so they're wrong. If Trump can beat Rubio and Cruz in Florida there is nothing to be concerned with.
>>72303618
Florida has shown again and again it will be rigged by the establishment. I fully expect Florida to be the last state that has it's results in (like 2 days later at the earliest) and it will be Democrat by a "miracle".
>>72303698
Oh yeah midterms Dems get destroyed for sure. My guess is Republicans lose quite a few senate seats in 2016.
>>72303663
Ohio.
>>72303326
Colorado voters typically want their state to be left alone. Clinton isn't going to leave anyone alone. They're not going to vote based on weed, though.
It's important to remember that in 2012 Colorado went 51% for Obama, 46% for Romney. Fucking Romney. That's without getting into how much people hate Clinton. A candidate like Trump who can actually motivate people to vote could flip the state.
>>72303654
They're not fishing, she's separating in national polls again. CNN just had a poll that showed something like 56-36.
And yea I know CNN isn't popular around here, but they actually do tend to hold decent polls. Fox news even has her up higher than she was a month ago.
>>72303698
A lot of the midterms were people fed up with Obama. Unfortunately for them, the GOP is full of cucks and a lone obstructionist named Ted.
>>72303698
That's all political hockey, it doesn't mean much. The same theory would also suggest that democrat turn out is lower during fresh elections (elections following an incumbency)
>>72303760
How fucking funny would it be if trump won, but the dems took over the senate and refused to vote on any SC justices trump nominated
Like pottery.
