>Connecticut
>Trump: 54%
>Kasich: 27%
>Unsure: 10%
>Cruz: 9%
>Rhode Island
>Trump: 58%
>Kasich: 21%
>Unsure: 11%
>Cruz: 10%
http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/ri-and-ct-gop-primary-poll-trump-leads-with-kasich-in-second/
>>72032058
Doesn't matter. All they have to do is to stop Donald from getting enough
Reminder: If you are 18+, you have by the end of the day to go to your town hall and register with a party so you can vote in the primary. If you have spend the last 6 months circle jerking on pol, and can't even get up off your ass for an hour to to you part, you are a bigger waste of space than an SJW activist.
VOTE. It's not like half of you have fucking jobs to go to anyway.
>>72032288
>Doesn't matter. All they have to do is to stop Donald from getting enough
Voters are getting tired of the political schemes.
>>72032575
This conservatives are finally getting really mad because literally everything they believe is a lie. When you rip away core beliefs you make people very very angry
>>72032575
That's the most reasonable thing I've heard from Nate Silver's mouth
Trump really woke him
>>72032058
Cruz, Cruz.
Battered and bruised.
Tried to ruse us for the jews.
He may lie, but one thing's true...
Ratboy Cruz's time is through.
>>72032819
I predict an avalanche shift in public discourse if Trump get the nomination, and people start getting bombarded with TRUMP stickers on the back of cars, and the general normalization of supporting him. Right now, even people who support him are still afraid to do so publicly. The more signs they see of social acceptability, the fast the boulder will roll down the hill, and more people will also speak frankly about how much they actually dislike Hillary.
Up to know, the entire race has been an exercise in the media trying to maintain consensus and the status quo. Once that's gone, Hillary is fucked, and Trump has a chance to make the sale.
>>72032819
He says it like "there are"...yeah there are a lot..
>>72033107
>>72032288
So let me get this straight. Donald can't get the 1237 delegates and no one in the Republican party has 1237 but for some odd reason Donald being #1 can't get it. So they give it to the runner up and Donald has 0% chance of getting on the ballot to be the president? Yeah, makes sense.
>>72032819
Nate Silver is the most reliable source of polling information in the US. You should look up to him because he's strictly the best there is at telling us what is likely to happen. He's pretty impartial too -- mostly just a mega-geek psephologist who gets off on a bit of Monte-Carlo modeling and similar statistical projections.
Why's this rat still running when he's already mathematically eliminated?
>>72032697
All that about helping out the working class was just pillow-talk baby.
>>72032058
But Trump's ceiling, he wasn't supposed to get past 20%
>>72032573
Fuck that, the fewer people who vote, the better, especially if they're on 4chan or Reddit, they're likely late teens or early 20s
>>72033363
He was really fucking up bad 6 months ago though. I think he had an ego check after Trump managed to succeed, and realized he was inflicting bias and ideology on his predictions. I think the autism in him is dedicated to data enough to force him to reevaluate any weaknesses in his models.
>>72033550
If you want Trump to get nominated, you have to vote for him int he primary. It's not complicated.
>>72032058
What is the fucking point of even voting for kasich
>mfw Trumpkkkins don't understand the game
It's all about delegates. And Chump not getting to 1237. Cruz will win on the second ballot because he's used masterful tactics to scoop up changing delegates in the second ballot.
>>72033561
Trump did literally defy the polling, which is a problem with polling. Trump is also an atypical candidate, so people don't always say what they think about him. You're right that Silver is pretty autistist and is obsessed with removing bias and punditry from political commentary. He wants people to say stuff that's statistically justifiable and he's the absolutely best source of statistics that we have, so everyone should give him a fair amount of kudos.
>>72033601
I'm in California
But have voted in every election since I could
>>72033657
Cruz is just being used. No way they're going to make him the nominee.
>>72033930
They wouldn't have asked people like Romney and Paul Ryan if they're interested if Cruz was their guy.
>>72033363
le ceiling man is crap. Its easy to predict when the team you want to win wins.
>>72033930
I wonder if Cruz knows that. It should be obvious.
>>72033657
Youre a joke. Trump is the presumptive nominee and all this is doing is making him an even strong GE candidate.
Your goal post mean shit
>>72033930
This, after him getting rekt by Donald for the past 4 months, he is not getting any independent voters
>>72033356
If he doesn't get 1237 them that means the the voters have spoken and have conclusively rejected Trump.
>>72034225
kek
>>72032819
>That's the most reasonable thing I've heard from Nate Silver's mouth
>>72033363
>Nate Silver is the most reliable source of polling information in the US. You should look up to him because he's strictly the best there is at telling us what is likely to happen. He's pretty impartial too
Are you fucking joking? Are you some kind of Trumptard that started memeing a month ago?
Nate hates Trump. He's spent half a year talking shit about him and declaring he had no chance of staying in the race, let alone winning. Again and again he put out articles shitting on Trump.
Now he's switched around and is hyping him and you eat it up. Fucking good goy.
CUT MY LIFE INTO PIECES
>>72034041
I'm still convinced that Trump has a real ceiling on popularity. I think that some of the pragmatic Republicans are too -- this is why they are wanting Trump out or else are saying "let's just accept Trump this election and deal with our loss, then rebuild next election." Trump supporters are unusually fanatical and loud, so have been overrepresented in primaries. He has very little appeal to undecided voters and is more disliked than any presidential hopeful in recent history. These details seem to me statistically convincing evidence that Trump has a real ceiling around maybe 35-40 percent of the electorate, which will translate to an absolute thumping in November (which is what Republicans strategists already fear).
wouldn't call nathaniel silverstein a 'source of poll information' - he's just a poll aggregator
>>72033657
If they do this the party will never win another election. it will break apart with registered members becoming so disenfranchised they will go elsewhere.
>>72033363
>Nate Silver
>reliable
>impartial
lol.
This election wrecked any credibility that filthy, filthy leftist jew had.
>>72034537
that's a nice bit of text, but trump is the most charismatic candidate in the race, bar none. both sides. the last time a less charismatic candidate actually won the election was george h w bush in 88, and he was coming off the reagan reign.
preliminary general polls are nothing compared to trump's blatant and undeniable charisma.
he's probably going to win.
>>72033550
>tfw mix 20s
I plan to leave for good at 30
>>72034537
So people are creating a self-fulfilling prophecy?
Indiana's the one you guys need to worry about. There are a bunch of grumpy old talk radio listening Christfuckers there and they love Cruz.
>>72033418
To stop Trump from getting an outright majority at all costs, and to force a contested convention. Shitty tactics.
Also, bonus: Kasich and El Rato are actively colluding to stop a Trump delegate majority happening:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-36132723
>>72033657
This, the voters need to get through their thick skulls that they are just guests of the Repunblican party and stop whining and let the elites with membership decide who will be the nominee.
Cruz and Kasich teaming up might have been the worst possible move they could have chosen.
>>72034392
He doesn't like Trump much, but what he loves the most is getting the fucking numbers right. He's an autistic numerate savant -- which is exactly the kind of guy who needs to be doing polling. No one else is using the sophisticated methods he is employing and no one else has been nearly as accurate in recent elections (like the last two presidential elections). And we're talking about accuracy at the level of individual electoral booths.
>>72034699
This is exactly the kind of partiality that he thinks destroys political predictions and reliability. I think he's right and that you're a fantastically gay faggot.
>>72034769
There's no proper evidence he will. It's still possible, but if he did it would require a complete rethink of all polling methods. Polls are reliable enough that most senior Republicans are shitting themselves over the prospect of either having a candidate who can't win or else forcing the most popular candidate out and in doing so creating a fracture in the party -- possibly permanently. It's a tough situation. If I were a GOP strategist, I'd just let Trump run and ride out the bumps while also focusing more on the Senate and governorship races.
>>72034976
Paco, the only reason that the Republican party hasn't been consigned to the history books is because of the massive turnout for Trump that has caught everyone off-guard. Trump has exposed the man behind the curtain (large nose optional) - with the narrative that the primaries are to placate the masses into option A or option B which are both basically the same candidate. Trump is neither of these, and doesn't give a shit.
To AWOOVEMENT memelords in this thread: Trump's in this race for Trump, remember that. Just because his goals align with your own doesn't mean that he's your ally.
>>72035157
>but what he loves the most is getting the fucking numbers right
Then why was he so off on Trump?
> using the sophisticated methods he is employing
Lick his ass some more. You wouldn't be saying this if his wind wane had turned and he was coming up with anti-Trump shit like he did earlier.
> no one else has been nearly as accurate in recent elections
He's only been involved in a couple of elections and built his entire hype out of betting against the grain one time.
>>72035437
Nope. He got big by understanding the fundamental underlying statistical truths of baseball while blowhard pundits were making up bullshit. This is how he earned his stripes. Then he turned his skills to politics and showed that most political commentators are largely making up most of what they say, and also that most polling is too crude and is often misleading. He's got the best track record of anyone who's going around at the moment, so deserves his current respect.
Anyone who doesn't recognize that is a butthurt faggot who hates that he doesn't predict at this stage that Trump has much chance of winning. But this is exactly the partisanship and biased faggotry that he is fighting really hard against -- you are the problem, my fellow faggot!
>>72035694
You live in a fantasy. He is a liberal he got famous with liberals by telling them what they wanted to hear.
>>72035829
Nope. He told people the truth, regardless of what he wanted to hear, and biased faggots like you got butthurt and accused him of bias. Which is actually hilarious because obviously you're interested in this topic as a partisan commentator, which automatically makes your contributions questionable. He wins this argument right from the start.
Ted Cruz will never be the nominee, he is universally despised
>>72032573
>If you have spend the last 6 months circle jerking on pol, and can't even get up off your ass for an hour to to you part, you are a bigger waste of space than an SJW activist
Im not a citizen so I can't vote. Im doing my part by circlejerking here,
>>72035437
>Then why was he so off on Trump?
You have to separate his analysis of the polls from his personal opinions on how the election will play out. The big difference between Silver and the hamplanet from Unskewed Polls in 2012 is that Silver hasn't fudged the numbers. He just tries to come up with a narrative that explains them in a way that doesn't make Trump look like he's doing good. Ignore his commentary but stick with the polling analysis.
>>72035694
>Then he turned his skills to politics and showed that most political commentators are largely making up most of what they say
You're equating polling with punditry? You're fucking retarded.
>most polling is too crude and is often misleading
Nate relies on meta-analysis of polling. He's nothing without it and not much more than a glorified RCP average.
>>72036380
He used polls to show that pundits were basing their opinions on nothing at all. He tries to develop interpretations based on the best possible empirical evidence. His use of evidence is where it's at and not his commentaries anyway, as >>72036296
suggests.
One of his significant skill in use of polling is to evaluate the relative bias and historical reliability of different polls, and then weight them or adjust them accordingly. It's a fucking useful method and is much much better than any of the massively wealthy major TV networks have ever done.
>>72036296
>The big difference between Silver and the hamplanet from Unskewed Polls in 2012 is that Silver hasn't fudged the numbers. He just tries to come up with a narrative that explains them in a way that doesn't make Trump look like he's doing good.
He lied about and undercut the numbers at every stage until now.
He's driven his "narrative" so hard his friends at lefty blags are crying over having been misled.
He's not anymore honest than Rasmussen hyping Romney right up until the end when they revised everything as to not appear to be bad at polling.
>>72036020
I've watched him make 20+ predictions out of wishful thinking. He has an agenda.
AND
YOU
CAN
HAVE IT ALLLLLLL
>>72036874
>His use of evidence is where it's at and not his commentaries
There's no fucking difference, since he uses his "commentary" aka "narrative" to weight the data, which is THE BASIS for his fucking numbers you idiot.
>>72036296
That Unskewed Polls guy is hilarious. He says that the only reason he was wrong is because of voter fraud. He has a new site at BarackOFraudo.com but it doesn't look like he's predicting anything this round.
>>72036296
Complete garbage the polls were right in 2012 the undecided broke Obama which is easy to predict because no president has only served 1 term in the white house since the 70's
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
>inb4 Bush sr. He served 3 terms in the whitehouse
>>72037326
*Broke for Obama
>>72034041
This, this is entirely why (((Silver))) analysed it all wrong, he finds Trump repugnant enough that his wishing for him to lose quickly clouded his insights.
>>72033657
>the man who was literally the last person they wanted to use against Trump
>getting anything when it comes to the convention
>>72037514
He has not been tested with his team losing. Lets talk in November
![5d0e304893ba54ea98db4ca7f23dfa72[1].jpg](https://i.imgur.com/6gktvkr.jpg "5d0e304893ba54ea98db4ca7f23dfa72[1].jpg")
>>72037326
>no president has only served 1 term in the white house since the 70's
>41's fw
>>72033418
He won't be mathematically eliminated until tomorrow night, technically.
>>72033437
>Mit Romney is Bruce Campbell
hohly fuck I see it now
>>72037845
See
>>72037326
>inb4 Bush sr. He served 3 terms in the whitehouse
>>72036186
That makes me nauseas every time
