- Erdogan shifts Turkey's politics regarding Russia, sanctions are dropped and the two countries embark on a path of partnership. This is exactly the opposite of US(western world as well) line of action regarding Russia
- US can not allow this so they stage a coup. They have a nice record of doing this in a lot of countries where they need to impose their interests. Since Turkey joined NATO there has been a military coup every 10 or so years. Turkey has a strong military so they are the most adequate for enacting change of government.
- Coup attempt starts. Everything is going to plan, national TV station is shut down, then a message is broadcast saying the military have seized power over the country to protect the constitution, democracy and security of the people. Military start disarming the police, blockade the parliament, Erdogan party HQ, strategic positions in Istanbul and Ankara.
- Erdogan turns to the people for help. Turkish society has become very pro-islam in recent years and they see Erdogan as their strong leader. Mosques start calling people to the streets to protect Erdogan and their faith.
- People flock to the streets, start fighting against the coup. "Rebel" soldiers are regular conscripts so they would not shoot and kill their own countrymen. It becomes evident the coup is not supported by the majority of people and that it will fail.
- When it is obvious the coup will fail the US and afterwards other western countries declare their on the side of Erdogan and his democratically elected government.
- Erdogan successfully stopped a US initiated coup attempt in Turkey using Islam and the people's support of him.
1/2
>>81442050
- Erdogan uses the situation to increase his power, government openly says the US is behind the coup(why would they do that, are they not allies?; why not blame the kurds as they usually do?), Incirlik base is blocked by the government forces and Turkey demands the extradition of Gulen, which the US will most likely not comply to.
- Since Erdogan still needs to go, shills and media start talking how this was all orchestrated by Erdogan himself in order to further enforce his position as dictator in Turkey, shifting the blame for the coup to him rather than the US.
WHAT COULD HAPPEN NEXT:
- Turkey starts distancing itself from NATO and the US.
- Turkey wants to become the bastion of Islam in the world.
- Turkey starts aligning itself with Russia rather than the US.
- US will not allow this, Erdogan has to go.
- Possibly a war/conflict incoming.
>>81442050
Then, is the the of the Syrian war anticipated?
>>81444708
*the end
>>81442088
> Possibly a war/conflict incoming
Fugg :D
>>81444708
I doubt it, I don't think Assad will tolerate Isis or vice versa. Maybe less external involvement in the conflict.
>>81445165
>>81445855
By end mean the eradication of Isis from Syria by Assad & Russia.
If Turkey stops supplying Isis, it will crash harder than it did with russian involvement.
>>81445889
well jokes aside. your analyze pretty good. but i hope there won't be a civil war in turkey. as a secular person, they'll fuck the shit out of us.
>>81442050
I really don't know if I should believe you. But there is this strange article from March 2016 by neocon Michael Rubin, where he predicted there will be a coup:
http://europe.newsweek.com/will-there-be-coup-against-erdogan-turkey-439181
>>81446253
Turkey doesn't support ISIS you memer. They and ISIS have struck each other repeatedly.
>>81446515
this. isis bombing us so hard recently.
>>81446418
They probably will, but there are still a lot of Kemalist elements in the armed forces, so it might not be that bad.
>>81446418
>>81446920
From what I've read there seems to be a geographical divide between secular Western Turkey and Islamist Eastern Turkey. Could a civil war result in the country splitting in half? Wouldn't that actually be better for secular Turks in the long run?
>>81447175
>geographical divide between secular Western Turkey.
pro-islamists in everywhere now. maybe izmir is the last secular city in turkey right now.
>>81447175
It would, since most high ranking officers are still Kemalists. The problem might be the chief of staff that will be another Erdogan's lapdog. The future is dark for Turkay and both ways(Erdogan's and the military's) lead to a bloody conflict.
DAILY REMINDER THAT FETULLAH GULEN IS THE LESS ISLAMIST, CONVERSATIVE, AUTHORITARIAN MAN
DON'T FALL FOR THE ERDOSHILLS' MEMES
HE IS GOING TO MAKE TURKEY GREAT AGAIN..
>>81442050
>US can not allow this so they stage a coup.
Stopped reading here. Obvious shill is obvious.
Erdogan found out that he had outlived his usefulness to ZOG, and was tipped off by Putin about the coup. He played along with it to test Germany and Britain, to see if they would give him asylum. They didn't. So now he probably hates America, Britain, and Germany. And as he is supreme ruler, that is now national policy.
>>81447779
no they are same shit with different colors.
>>81447779
why do you write in all caps?
>>81446496
(((Michael Rubin)))
>>81446253
I honestly dont know about this. Assad is a russian ally so to speak, so if Turkey aligns with Russia then it would seem they would stop supporting isis. Maybe the russians will compensate what the turks would lose from losing isis so they can pull in Turkey further to their side.
I dont think isis ever had a chance, it is just a matter of time until they are defeated.
>>81442050
It's so obvious that Erdogan was the one who staged this coup you idiot.
Why would the US attempt to bring Erdogan down with just a couple thousand soldiers when they know that Erdogan can use the police and all his fanatic muslim followers as an army anytime?
Erdogan just wanted to ensure his reign even further and remove thousands of potential political enemies with one blow. His big dream is to become the first sultan of a reborn ottoman empire and to fulfill this wish he has to cleanse the country of every single critic and rival.
>>81447794
Will you deny that the US has a history of helping coups to overthrow governments which go against US interests?
Turkey is the 2nd biggest army in NATO, I don't think it's absurd to think the US has some influence in the turkish army.
And how do you explain that Turkey is openly saying the US is behind this? I think saying the kurds were behind this would be much more convenient.
>>81449624
Shill or dumb faggot detected.
Turks also have respect for the military. They also have a "tradition" if you could call it that where the government is removed by the military, it's written in their constitution that the army is responsible for protecting Turkey from "bad" governments. A coup is not something new and extraordinary for the turks so one might think that they wouldnt react like they did.
Why did Turkey blame the US? Why are media pushing the agenda that Erdogan orchestrated this himself?
The Turkish economy is tanking, and despite being a NATO ally, the EU wouldn't let him join. So what else is he going to do? He will ally himself with strength, and that means Russia in that neighborhood.
>>81442050
This looks more like an Erdogan arranged false flag coup to justify actions against his political opponents.
The US and Turkey are both supporting Sunnis in Syria so there is no motivation to try a coup.
The US is just an easy target for Erdogan to blame.
Expect Erdogan opponents to be greatly weakened and the islamic rhetoric to increase in the weeks to come. This only benefits Erdogan.
>>81451037
Your argument is non existent.
A successful military coup actually needs the leaders of the military to either go along with it or for them to be considered useless by the vast majority of the military.
A military coup with less than half of the military supporting would be doomed to fail from the very beginning.
Not enough information and may never be to know 100% but that was the most feeble "military coup" in history.
False flags are actually quite useful and this one was exactly what Erdogan needed to accomplish several goals at the same time all while making his opponents look like the bad guys.
>>81451547
The motivation is that Erdogan became friendly to the russians.
How is the US easy to blame? Arent they supposed to be friendly allies? Blaming the kurds or outright the opposition would be much more convenient for purging Turkey of his opponents.
He could have said "The opposition parties and the kurds have conspired this", but yet his administration said the US is behind this.
>>81452327
His oponents being the US?
Herr Dogan wants to spread radical militant shariah jihadi Islam (i.e. Islam) in the region, the West, and make himself the King of all of it.
Russia has had problems with cockroach sunni muslim scum for hundreds of years, continuing through to today. Why the fuck would Putin align with Herr Dogan and allow this? Why would Assad just say "lol ok i forgib nao"?
>>81456007
>Russia would be against Turkey distancing itself from NATO and the US
>>81456416
>Herr Dogan is willing to drop all his global strategic leverage (turning on/off the tap of radical Islam) and become Putin's pawn
That's what gives him his power. In the 'western' alliance he has power. If he makes good with Putin and Assad, he'll have to stop or reign in the cockroaches. At that point, anyone can be Turkey's leader, and so he becomes completely dispensable (and would be dispensed with swiftly).
Dumping conclusions reached by /pol/ this weekend
>He isn't a religious threat. He is a political threat.
>Religiously he is moderate Hanafi Islam (like most of Turkey).
>Politically he has thousands of schools worldwide elementary schools, high school and universities. Everywhere. From Russia, to Africa, from USA to Central Asian Turkics.
>Nationalists used to like him because he taught Turkish in these thousands of schools.
>AKP conservatives liked him because he is supposedly "religious".
>Secularists never liked him.
>In late 90s a couple of loose cannon generals said "he is the greatest threat to Turkish secularism". People were like "WTF LOL TINFOIL GENERALS". Within 2-3 years those generals were either retired, or conveniently denied promotion.
>Around 2001 our huge economic crisis struck. Gulen moved to Pennsylvania. People claimed he was a CIA asset, but who gives a shit, thousands of CIA assets in Turkey and abroad.
>When AKP was elected by a fair election, they had around 37% of the vote where no other party came close.
>Gülenist Cemaat (Denomination) supported them.
>Suddenly state prosecutors, supposed "secularist"s began bringing huge trials to court. It was during 2006 that the Ergenekon trials began. A golden generation of officers, cadets who were educated in Harvard and interned in West Point, truly western brigh men and women, were blamed with "coup plots".
>Most secular Ataturkist Turks knew it was bullshit. Trials went on and on.
>But Turkish law states that if an officer has a trial that goes on more than the duration of their promotions, they must be retired.
>These Turkish officers, brightest of the bright were retired because these sleeper prosecutors delayed the court results for 4 years.
>Within that 4 years, the Balyoz bullshit trials began. It was now apparent that Gülenist prosecutors were a serious bad ass threat. They were ravaging the secular establishment.
>Erdogan was enjoying the fun. His polls were increasing. Understand that Erdogan is a local threat. He just want to be the bestest leader of his electorate forever and ever, he's a guy who wants an evangelical legacy.
>AKP be like 'awesome finally those militaristic muh Turan soldiers are being fucked like we once were under Ataturk'
>During Balyoz Trials higher up Generals were jailed. This time it was fucking huge. Four stars, three stars, previously untouchables. Special Forces command, Frogmen Colonels who were the apple in the eye of the military.
>Keep in mind these soldiers were active duty badasses. PKK-slayers, best of the best. The generals were desktop men yes, but these newly jailed guys were actual fighting men, valuable assets not to be fucked with.
>Some smart AKP think tanks, not durka but not secular either start warning 'WTF how can Gülenists have this much furtive power?' I wonder who they'll fuck next?
>AKP government and Erdogan decide to check their power, but beginning to shut down schools belonging to international or philantropy foundations, a grassroots foundation of Gülenist influence.
>the Gülenist denomination is "Do not do it we are brothers, cmoooon"
>AKP persists trying to see if this tumor is malignnant.
>Within 3 months Gülenist prosecutors begin a huge corruption case versus Erdogan and AKP. Some are true, most is bullshit. Damning stuff, but nothing Hillary or Cheney wouldn't do.
>Gezi protests begin. Gülenist police start doing EXTREMELY disproportionate blowback to young Ataturkist protestors.
>Busted heads, blinded protestors, shot and murdered Alawite secular youth.
>Erdogan suddenly is perceived as a brutal guy who ordered the death of hipster occupy kids. Even though the police were under Gulen command.
>People rise up to the corruption. To Erdogan """"bullying"""", everybody now hates AKP aside from their base, opinion polls fall to 35%, lowest since 2002.
>AKP starts weeding out Gülenist prosecutors who resist.
>It's a clusterfuck now. Nobody knows who's secular, who's AKP populist religious, who's truly dangerous Gülenist religious cultist.
> Turkey is a Cthulhu nightmare where nobody trusts anybody.
> Erdogan vows to weed out the Gülenist influence. He appoints the first powerful Chief of General Staff in years. His name is Hulusi Akar.
> Akar is a Turkmen Secular guy who is the top of his class and a pragmatist. He is loved by the Turkish military industrial complex because he is a technocrat, wants Turkey to manufacture own tanks own planes and one day, own engines .
>Erdogan and Hulusi Akar, cozy up to Koc, a secular laissez faire Turkish family richest Turks in the world.
>Erdogan, as a concession first in his life, agrees to exonerate all unfairly jailed secular officers, and soften his line on religious politics.
>Gülen, now realizing he's in dire straits, because Erdogan has allied with secular establishment, goes all out.
>Gülenist officers order the Russian plane to be shot down, to distract from the prosecutions and cleansing of Gülenist prosecutors, judges, educators and officers within EVERYWHERE like cancer.
>Russia-Turkey shit puts Erdogan and Davutoglu in deep shit. Big deep shit.
>Erdogan decides to sacrifice career of his friend and mentor, Davutoglu to placate Russia.
>Gülen realizes that huge prosecutions are incoming and on July 19 2016 cases would be brought to court against Gülenist infiltration of the Turkish state.
>Almost all of the Gülenist extreme officers within Turkish Army, around 120 of them, with around 400 NCOs, try to force AKP hand towards a civil war.
>They used secularist Ataturk lover jargon to appear like a real secular coup.
>2 heroic generals Zekai Aksakalli and Umit Dundar, somehow make it to their barracks to stop printed orders claiming this is the entire Army doing a coup.
>Zekai Aksakalli, who is the four star general of the Special Forces issues statement within first hour of coup, he says that 99% of the Army is against this bullshit coup.
>Army rallies and begins defying orders.
>Gülenist officers, 12 Brigadier generals, 10 colonels and numerous lesser officers are caught with their dick in hand.
>They panic, bombing the parliament and trying to kill equally bullshit durkas who are protesting the coup upon Erdogan's Facetime picture.
> An NCO with the name of Ömer Halisdemir, Special Forces Sergeant, shoots the pinpoint field leader of the bullshit coup, a Gülenist brigadier General named Semih Terzi. He is immediately killed by Terzi's henchmen. If Ömer Halisdemir hadn't done this, orders would have been issued by the Gülenist bullshit machine to hundreds of other regiments. Weeks of blood would follow. Ömer Halisdemir is a name that should be remembered (pic related).
> Gülen's plan falls to shambles because the impossibility that seculars, consevatives and nationalists all defy the coup happens.
>We are saved because Gülen couldn't predict that his men would fuck up so bad, because ironically, were ill educated because of Gülenist purges of the military and cronyist favoritism.
