Listen up motherfuckers! Here is Donald Trump's best shot at winning the Presidency. I 100% correctly predicted the 2012 results, so I know what the fuck I'm talking about.
- Starting in the Southwest, you basically have two states where Trump can compete - Nevada and Colorado. With the Southwest being Trump's weakness, I don't see him doing well. His best chance is Colorado, largely because they don't like Clinton, but I still don't think it's enough.
- Moving to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes area, you have a few interesting states up for grabs. Minnesota and Illinois are Clinton strongholds, but Trump will be more competitive in Wisconsin and Michigan than Romney or McCain ever was. Trump's trade message will resonate very strongly. Still don't think it's enough to flip either red, so forget about it. Iowa will stay blue as well, just because Trump's not the flavor of Republican to do well in Iowa. That leaves Ohio left. Ohio will go red, and I'm very confident of this. Trump is exactly the brand of populist Republican that excels in Ohio. Easy win for him.
>>79196021
[cont]
- In the Southeast we have Florida. Florida is definitely going to be closer than a lot of people think. There's a lot of old, retired women down there who want to see a woman President. On the other hand, a very mediocre Romney almost won Florida. Given the enthusiasm for Trump among middle-aged men, I think Trump narrowly wins Florida. Georgia and NC are both solid Trump states as well.
-This leaves the Northeast where the election will be decided. Let's start off by making clear that Clinton will win Virginia, New York, and New Jersey. These are full-on, total establishment Democratic states - especially Virginia. Trump is not going to be competitive in these states, forget about them. New Hampshire is a close call, but I really like Trump's chances here. New Hampshire hates Clinton. This leaves Pennsylvania, the "2000 Florida" of 2016. We already know that Trump is the sort of Republican that will do well in PA, every recent poll done here shows that. Will it be enough to overturn a 28 year old trend? Yes, because he will turn out the working-class base that lives in Western PA. As long as this happens, Philadelphia's Democratic turnout will not matter. Gonna be close, but he can do it.
>>79196021
Not bad op, better then these shill threads
>>79196021
What's your confidence level on a scale from 0 to 1 (or 0 to 100 if you prefer)?
>>79196862
420 he will win.
>>79196053
For me, it comes down to Florida. In fact, I'd feel more nervous about Florida than PA.
What makes you think Colorado goes Blue?
>>79196021
>>79196053
Hey look everybody! This OP isn't a
>plebbit
>copycat
>shill
>CTR
What a faggot!
>>79196021
Delusional assfuck
>>79196021
Colorado is a republican state now. The Democrats fucked up and flipped the state back to GOP.
>>79197877
Sorry faggot but:
>Trump will never run
>Trump will never breach 15%
>Trump will never win New Hampshire
>Trump will never release his financials
>Trump will never breach 25%
>Trump will never win SC
>Trump will never breach 35%
>Trump will never breach 50%
>Trump will never reach 1237
>Trump will never recover after Wisconsin
>Trump will never win unbound delegates
>Trump will never recover after Colorado
>Trump will never be the nominee
>Trump will never predict BREXIT
------------------
You are here
------------------
>Trump will never pivot to the GE
>Trump will never beat Clinton in swing states
>Trump will never get 270
>Trump will never be POTUS
>Trump will never build the wall
>Trump will never block risky shitskins
>Trump will never deport spics
>Trump will never win a second term
>Trump will never bring back manufacturing jobs
>Trump will never abolish Common Core
>Trump will never renegotiate our trade deals
>Trump will never MAGA
>Trump will never MEGA
>Trump will never colonize Mars
>Trump will never colonize the Milky Way
>Trump will never deport the xenos
>>79196053
I agree that this election will be the reddest in recent history for PA. Local elections here always go blue but they view the Dems from a purely working class lens. There's little love here for the psychopathic, degeneracy promoting, anti-white national Dems and steel country is on the verge of flipping. I really hope we manage to go all the way and buck the trend.
>>79197963
The polls correctly predicted that he would win the nomination
Now they're saying he's getting BTFO
Questions!
>Is Oregon not in play? Bush was in the 5% margin for both his runs. Trump has even polled ahead of Hillary here.
>Have you factored in a drop in black turnout?
>I doubt Trump's ability in NH. NH is a blue state whenever not discussing fiscal manners, and Trump is more to the left of Bush on that, who was the last GOP contender to win there in 2000. What makes him competitive here?
>Florida's voter pool is more immigrant and Hispanic then previously, and the older generation of GOP-leaning Cubans have died off to the point that most Florida Cubans are now registered Dems. Will the Orlando shooting be enough to win this?
>What state are you in? Just want to know to see if there's some bias.
>>79196862
The only reason I lack any confidence is because I know voter fraud exists, so there's always a chance Trump gets fucked over. Overall, I'd say I'm about 75% sure all of my predictions here will turn out to be true (Colorado and PA are the two toss-ups).
>>79197609
As I said above, Colorado is my main "?". It could go either way. I think that there will be enough of the Latino vote in Colorado to tip it in Clinton's favor.
>>79198224
>Trusting an MSN pol
Comeonnow.jpg
>>79198224
I like how they took out the white population.
>>79198043
Yeah I know, I'm from the Pittsburgh area, and when I went to vote for Sanders in the primary, all I saw were Trump signs in the suburban polling place I went to. Anecdotal, but still.
>>79196021
I want him to win more than anything but Texas Pennsylvania Florida and Arizona are polling blue.
>>79198449
They're included in the 18-34 and Women section
>>79196021
You're fucking retarded.
>methodology: trust me
Same as yours!
>>79198255
Yeah, but Nader definitely had some effect with Gore doing so poorly in Oregon. Overall, Trump will do better than Romney in Oregon, but it still won't be enough.
Black turnout is definitely down, yes.
Trump is competitive in NH because they love Sanders, and there's going to be a lot of crossover Bernie voters going for Trump. NH is very anti-establishment, and Clinton is the epitome of that. Therefore, I favor Trump decently to win.
Florida will be close, but since Trump garners excitement, he'll win.
I'm from PA. I'm biased as a Sanders supporter who wants to see Clinton lose.
>>79198463
So am I actually. Hello rare Western PA /pol/ack.
>>79196021
>southwest
>colorado
stopped reading there
>>79197963
>LOOK MOM I POSTED IT AGAIN
>>79198274
Trump needs to play on both Colorado not getting to vote in the primaries and Bernie Sanders turning their backs on them/getting rigged out of the general.
Riling them up with the current establishment will get them pointing fingers at Hillary.
Replace at convention? With whom?
>>79197877
>AZ turning blue.
>>79198646
Fuck off, shill.
>>79198224
Poll after poll claimed HERP DERP TRUMP IS FINISHED DERP and he ended up winning the nomination. They're an "educated guess" at best and one of the least valid forms of data collection since people often change their mind from day to day.
>>79198603
Literally how to lie with statistics.
What a fucking agenda.
>>79197877
>Blue Az
I should kill you for posting this about my statesmen.
>>79198603
but black and latino aren't? what a fucken liar you are
>>79199043
Exactly, I hope it's enough.
>>79198943
Hi :^)
>>79196021
Delusional assfuck
>>79198224
>Be Black 19 YO woman.
get three votes.
>>79198927
>I'm biased as a Sanders supporter who wants to see Clinton lose.
what percentage of your fellow Bernouts do you project are thinking the same way as you?
>>79196021
Wow. I actually agree with this map a lot.
First /pol/ack to make one of these and actually know his shit.
Coming from a wiscofag, I think he has a 55-45 (W-L) chance of winning here.
My reasons:
>we've been inundated with Mexicans in normally homogenous smalltowns, which makes his immigration message resonate
>we're rust belt country, so his message on jobs and trade will resonate
>we've leaned right in very recent history; Scott Walker was recalled and still won back-to-back elections, mostly just because people were fed up with liberals and Obama: this helps Trump's chances tremendously
Michigan is even more in his favor because it's 100 times as rust-belt as we are, and the white blue-collar types like his message on jobs and are also very redpilled on things like race and immigration .
>>79199554
> bloomBERG
>>79199554
>thinks popular vote matters
>thinks polls over 4 months before the election mean shit
Can't tell if OP is delusional and/or retarded
>>79199690
There's a lot of us. The only ones that are going to actually vote for Trump are the Independents who supported Sanders in the primary. The registered Dems who voted for Sanders will largely stay with Clinton or not vote/write in Sanders (which also helps Trump).
-About 50% will vote Clinton
-30% will vote Independent/not vote at all/write in Sanders
-20% will actually vote Trump
>>79200109
>-About 50% will vote Clinton
>-30% will vote Independent/not vote at all/write in Sanders
>-20% will actually vote Trump
those numbers alone should speak that Hillary is fucked.
>>79199554
> bloomBERG
>>79197877
>A twitter poll
>>79197609
South Florida here
I'm not concerned about Florida going blue this year, especially after the Orlando attack.
>>79200437
I wish there was more that weren't brainwashed into thinking Trump is racist and sexist. If Trump wins though, history will look back on the chunk of Sanders supporters who did vote for Trump as "Trump Democrats" (like how Reagan had Reagan Democrats).
>>79199846
>iFag
>>79200773
why do they think that so religiously? do they listen to the MSM about trump then turn around and bash them for being biased for Hillary in the same breath?
Could NV go Republican
>>79199706
What you need to get in Michigan is the Metro Detroit area, and there are a ton of blacks that love welfare here. I can't give a good estimate because there are too many stupid college kids near me.
CALIFORNIA SHALL RISE AGAIN
>>79198542
You're forgetting one key demographic
>>79201292
They latch on to that quote by Trump at his announcement speech about how Mexicans are rapists. Social media doesn't help the matter either. Since most people our age think Trump is racist, they're too insecure to stand up for the fact that he isn't racist. Easier to go along with it.
>>79201292
>disaffected Marxists will vote for an opportunist oligarch
mfw this is what /pol/ believes
>>79196021
Pick a battleground state. Any battleground state.
All this is before he shit all over himself over Brexit, and then broke half the campaign laws of the country by soliciting donations from every member of parliament in half a dozen countries.
> Clinton had her largest lead—17 points—over Trump in Michigan, where the survey, conducted along with Evolving Strategies, found she had the support of 50 percent of registered voters to Trump's 33 percent.
> The closest race among the states surveyed was Iowa, where Clinton had 45 percent support and Trump had 41 percent for a Clinton lead of four points.
> Among Florida voters, Clinton had 51 percent support and Trump had 37 percent; in North Carolina, Clinton had 48 percent support and Trump had 38 percent; in Ohio, Clinton had 46 percent support and Trump had 37 percent.
> In Pennsylvania, Clinton had 49 percent support and Trump had 35 percent, while among Virginia voters Clinton had 45 percent support to Trump's 38 percent.
> The poll surveyed registered voters by phone from June 10-22. The poll surveyed 596 Florida voters with a margin of error of 4 percentage points; 601 Iowa voters with a margin of error of 4 percentage points; 612 Michigan voters with a margin of error 4 percentage points; 603 North Carolina voters with a margin of error of 4 percentage points; 617 Ohio voters with a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points; 601 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of 4 percentage points; and 612 Virginia voters with a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points.
- http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/ballotpedia-clinton-beats-trump-battleground-states
Wait wait ... what was that? Soliciting campaign contributions from members of parliament in half a dozen countries you say?
Hmmmm. Makes you think.
- http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/trump-fundraising-emails-foreign-members-parliament
- http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/fec-complaint-trump-emails-foreign-fundraising
>>79196021
>mfw Trump wins elections and all the butthurt millennials call for a second election because the first one didn't yield the results they wanted
>>79200037
ITS NOT TOO LATE
>>79203917
>>79203917
