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MONTREAL • A late spring caused Canada’s maple syrup production to fall for the second consecutive year in 2015 — and El Nino is threatening to put a dent in next spring’s output as well.

The warmer El Nino weather is expected to have an impact on a number of commodities, including maple sap, said Sylvain Charlebois, professor of distribution and food policy at the University of Guelph’s Food Institute.

“I see little evidence that would encourage anyone to see a good year in 2016,” he said in an interview.

The impact would hit Quebec, the world’s dominant maple syrup producer, along with Ontario, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and syrup-producing U.S. states like Vermont and New York.

Producers on both sides of the border aren’t yet ready, however, to throw in the towel.

The Federation of Quebec Maple Syrup Producers says it’s too soon to know what impact warmer conditions could have next spring.

“Nobody can predict the production of each year,” said federation deputy director Paul Rouillard.

He also doubts that weather poses a long-term problem for Quebec, because colder parts of the province could — over several decades — pick up the slack from more affected regions. Quebec’s federation, representing about 7,300 producers, is seeking approval to add 2.5 million taps to the 43 million already active each year.

Quebec’s supply management system keeps syrup prices high by using its strategic reserve — which contains 60 million pounds — to balance production fluctuations.

A shorter season also affected U.S. maple production last year but it’s premature to forecast weather problems several months ahead, said Matthew Gordon, executive director of the Vermont Maple Sugar Makers Association.

“It certainly could have an impact, but I wouldn’t base any business decisions on it right now,” he said.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/stock-up-on-your-maple-syrup-el-nino-could-spell-a-bad-year-for-sap