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This are parts that i found interesting from the book The Black Swan

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/242472.The_Black_Swan


recorded books - audio


A black swan is a highly probable event with three principal characteristics
It is unpredictable
It carries a massive impact
After the fact we make up an explanation which makes it look less random and more predictable than it was

One single observation can invalidate a valid statement derived from millennia of confirmatory sightings of millions of people

The author of the harry book series does not have to write a new book each time someone wants to read it , but a baker needs to bake bread every time he wants to sell bread
this is the diference between professions that can add zeros to their earning without more work and those who cant

Don't simplify beyond what is necessary

Our minds are like inmates captured to our biology unless we manage a cunning escape

A lot of mildly good news is preferable to a single lump of good news regarding what makes you happy

Superior qualities are only superior if most people don't have them

Respectable literary publishers accept 1 in 10 000 manuscripts the receive from first time authors

It is the worst case that matters when engaging in a policy , the worst case is far more consequential than the forecast itself

It is often said that he is wise who can see things coming but perhaps the wise one is the one who knows he cannot see things far away

A bad prediction can be worse than no prediction

We over estimate the length of the effect of misfortune on our lifes, you thing that the lost of your fortune or job will be devastating but you are probably wrong , more likely you will adapt

Scholars are judged mostly on how many times their work was referenced on others people work

Popular science books that summarize research in complex systems
Mark Buchanan - Ubiquity
Philip Ball - Critical mass
Paul Ormerod - Why most things fail