So the Chinese are very close to finishing development and beginning deployment of their new Df-41, a solid-fueled ICBM with the range to hit the entire continental United States. This is a huge upgrade over their previous primary missile, which uses liquid fuel and thus takes a half-hour or so to prepare for launch. The Chinese have a small number of hardened silos where those missiles can be kept fueled (with the intensive maintenance required, I assume) and ready to launch, but even then they only have the range to hit the West Coast. The DF-41 can be fired from a road-mobile TEL and threatens all of CONUS. If that's not enough the Chinese recently announced they'll be performing their first SSBN deterrence patrol - though given what we know of Chinese subs I doubt that'll be more than a tailing exercise for a Los Angles class skipper.
Given all this, I'm rather curious as to what the likely SIOP is for nuclear exchanges between China and America, as well as limited exchange scenarios. The psychology of China's leadership is also interesting in this matter; they definitely think differently than the Soviets, but they seem to lose all sense of reason or rationality when Taiwan comes into the picture. And the modern addition of effective anti-missile defenses - in boost-phase, mid-course and terminal - definitely change the metrics a bit as well.
What do you guys think? How would this play out, most likely, given the current and near-future forces of China and America?
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/26/china-send-nuclear-armed-submarines-into-pacific-us
>They point to plans unveiled in March to station the US Thaad anti-ballistic system in South Korea, and the development of hypersonic glide missiles potentially capable of hitting China less than an hour after launch, as huge threats to the effectiveness of its land-based deterrent force.
Oh my god. My fucking sides. Remember the fucking fiddycents on /k/ last month?
>WE DEVERROP HYPERSONIK GLIDE VEHIKKERS, AMERICAN PIGDERG IS FURRKED NOW!
And now:
>HOW DARE MERRICAN PIGDERGS MAKE HYPERSORRIC GRIDE VHREHICLE! WE SEND SUBMARINE TO NOOK YOU ALL!
Good Christ do they even listen to themselves
>>30115663
Chinese government is scaremongering about US PGS because they want to legitimize their own nuclear expansion.
It is not that the PGS goes anywhere, though kek.
HVT-2 failed 100%, while the WU-14/DF-ZF has 90% success rate.
>inb4 X-51
kek. It's not that impressive either...
>>30115858
>straight string of successes
>almost 0 data on basic stuff like altitude, speed, range, etc
HA HA HA SUUUUUUURE believe whatever Chinese propaganda tells ya, woo hoo.
China isn't in the same league as USA with nuclear weapons so there is a very high chance of the PRC misunderstanding their ability to deter USA.
>>30115589
a) Not going to happen
b) if it did happen, while the Chinks are busy boasting about their latest and greatest tech that can "beat anything the US has", our admirals and generals are lolling their dress blues off sipping fine columbian coffee while looking over the latest top secret project that outdoes the chinks by at least 10 years. T +12 hours, the chinese population is back to work in the countries rice fields not knowing that their communist overlords are fused together in one big cat-dog-chinese-brick conglomerate.
Literally you fucking chink shills, not a single person in the US is worried about your pathetic, commie, low tech, dog-eating, happy-meal toy building country is capable of militarily. When you get like maybe one legitimate carrier, I'll start to consider you a threat. Until then, enjoy starving off 1/6ths the worlds population because you cant figure out how, with 1/6th the world pop, to do anything to keep you in the 21st century.
>>30116681
>our admirals and generals are lolling their dress blues off sipping fine columbian coffee while looking over the latest top secret project that outdoes the chinks by at least 10 years. T +12 hours, the chinese population is back to work in the countries rice fields not knowing that their communist overlords are fused together in one big cat-dog-chinese-brick conglomerate
OP here. This is primarily what I'm interested in. The Chinese strategists know this (the BS propaganda is for the civilians, not for them,) so knowing how their technology is inferior and their arsenal rather small, how would they go about planning to use it for maximum deterrent effect? In other words, what's their SIOP, and how does it compare to ours?
>>30116799
They don't. Like you said. It's propaganda for the chink masses. Ironically, oligarchic dictatorial political systems like China actually have a bigger need for the populace to willingly support the state. The logical conclusion of this system is North Korea. The chicom gov regularly fluff its feathers to keep up nationalistic fervor.
>>30117615
>the populace to willingly support the state
This is an east asian cultural thing though.
>>30115589
MAD does not exist between the US and China and won't at any time in the foreseeable future.
/thread
Where the hell do you guys work/how much free time do you have to daydream about things that will never, ever happen?
>>30117675
>/thread
Jesus christ you are retarded. Don't speak unless someone gives you permission.
Give it 51 years and fallout IRL
>>30117709
It doesn't you illiterate nigger piece of shit. Read a fucking book. Or better let, literally kill yourself.
>>30117709
> I have no idea what basic nuclear strategic doctrine entails
That's you. It's embarrassing.
The Chinese are so far behind on the Nuke game that they would never be able to catch up quickly enough to matter without being incredibly obvious about it. Their nukes are for deterrence, to make them dangerous enough that attacking them isn't worth what retaliation they can give while not being so threatening that they have to be removed. Its a careful political game of appearances and bluffing.
>>30117778
What did I just fucking say? Take a knee and shut your mouth, fuckboi
>>30117744
>>30117778
This guy >>30117709 was talking about how...whichever of you retards...tried to end the threat by pulling some commie reddit bullshit. so both of you area actually retarded.
>>30118013
>threat
*thread
>>30116799
>what's their SIOP
Their nuclear arsenal is not designed to deter the US from fighting a strategic nuclear war with them.
It is designed to deter conventional confrontation with the US. At the start of a crisis, They want the US to look further down the road at a worse case scenario, seeing a small handful of surviving Chinese warheads arriving at US cities, and then compare that with whatever minor crisis has erupted.
The idea is that the US will look at the existing minor crisis, compare it with the destruction if a US city, and decide it's not worth escalating.
As long as China avoids any major crisis, and instead keeps slicing that salami, this will work.
>>30118938
based Oppenheimer, btw man, I used to live next to Edwin Teller, a bunch of people from Project Manhattan days lived in my town, they sort of had their own little nuke community. It was kinda interesting know important people lived around me.
>>30118938
That's not correct. It's used to deter nuclear escalation of regional limited wars.
The problem with american armchairs trying to divine chinese nuclear posturing is that they underestimate chinese resolve in winning a conventional war.
>>30121466
Whats the difference between a limited regional war and a full war with the US?
FUCK OFF WITH THESE STUPID WAR HYPOTHETICALS THAT YOU POST EVERY FUCKING DAY YOU FUCKING IDIOT
>>30122795
Sorry. Go back to your "would you fuck a tank" threads.
>>30121466
How do Chinese armchairs resolve to win a conventional war against a nuclear superpower on par with Russia?
>>30115589
American special forces can disarm all of them before they can be launched. Not to mention 50% of them will blow up inside the silos because Chinese technology.
>>30115663
>>WE DEVERROP HYPERSONIK GLIDE VEHIKKERS, AMERICAN PIGDERG IS FURRKED NOW!
>>HOW DARE MERRICAN PIGDERGS MAKE HYPERSORRIC GRIDE VHREHICLE! WE SEND SUBMARINE TO NOOK YOU ALL!
Are you quoting your shitposts, because a shitposter on /k/ != Chinese government
>>30123526
Shitpost recieves shitpost
>>30115589
Daily reminder that Zumwalt exists entirely to help challenge China's great Wall of costal and island bastions. And people talk shit that naval gunfire is useless in one breath, while then proceeding to conveniently ignore all the inland missile batteries, airstrips, and fast attack boats the USA would need to wade through to force China off of her neighbors.
>>30123390
by fighting a limited, conventional, and very quick series of battles that immediately achieve the intended political objective. You might want to take a look at 1962 and 1979.
Also look up what counter value means in nuclear posturing.
It's almost like you don't really study the subject. OH WAIT, I'M ON 4CHAN TALKING TO A BUNCH OF ILLITERATE AMERITARDS. MY BAD.
>>30122705
there are 2 textbook examples (well, 3 if you count the early spratly disputes with Vietnam) of limited regional wars, 1962 and 1979. 1979 was fought under the shadow of a full Soviet invasion. Limited regional war is about deterring overt intervention from the superpowers while achieving the regional political objective. In other words, it's more about area denial than power projection since the war is expected to be fought very close or even inside the Chinese border.
A full war, a war for national survival, is something else entirely
>>30124005
How do you do that against the US?
Their core Strategy is to extend a conflict until enough power is projected to overwhelm the opponent.
There is no built in limit in US strategy. It is designed to escalate until the opponent backs down.
Thats why the Chinas strategy is to prevent the US from engaging in the crisis in the first place. The US looks at everything in the context of escalation towards war termination.
>>30124087
And thus your idea plays right into the US strategy of the continum of escalation.
>>30124005
>You might want to take a look at 1962 and 1979.
Poo in the loo in 1962 and Vietnam aren't very comparable to USA.
>>30124087
Why don't you mention the Korean War when China had direct confrontation with USA? Do you honestly think there'll be a "quick and limited" war between two equal powers? I gotta kek at that.
>>30124137
China isn't the equal of the US though.
>>30116681
the amerifat delusion is funny in these threads
meanwhile you were incapable to win in korea, afg, vietnam, iraq
stay delusional amerifat
>>30124147
Well obviously if nukes came into play, China would be BTFO. Regardless, if two major powers collided, there's not going to be anything quick about it.
>>30124107
I'm sorry, I wasn't aware that the US and PRC shared a border.
>>30124137
>I gotta kek at that.
I don't know, why don't you list out all the wars China has fought since 49, their duration, and their opponents? Oh did you just mention Korea? That's funny, because that thing was limited TO THE KOREAN PENINSULA, wasn't it?
>>30124096
>Thats why the Chinas strategy is to prevent the US from engaging in the crisis in the first place.
see
>>30124087
>Limited regional war is about deterring overt intervention from the superpowers while achieving the regional political objective.
>>30124101
continued escalation only works when you're bullying some defenseless middle eastern "nation" (really, tribe).
American risk calculus gets decidedly less testosterone laden when the other guy can punch back.
Obviously, China cannot win in unrestricted warfare against the US. Nobody can. But there is enough capability to make a US victory a Pyrrhic victory. That's the nature of deterrence.
>>30124336
Actually, thats when continued escalation doesnt work.
The US is very willing to jump into a conventional fight. Thats what they would prefer. A conventional conflict with China is something the US would be willing to engage in.
It is the fact that US strategy would lead to escalation from that to nuclear war that gives them pause.
As long as China does not give the US cause to engage conventionally, the US is limited in capabilities.
Once you do, you are playing the US game.
China can not fight a limited regional war with the US because the US does not believe those exist as a possibility with China.
Once you are in a shooting war with the US, all aspects of your ability to make war are subject to attack.
A fight over a strip of sand will mean conventional cruise missile strikes against petroleum targets elsewhere. Attacks against naval forces everywhere.
Strikes against conventional command and control centers everywhere.
The US does not fight a limited war against a conventional enemy. All aspects of an enemies ability to make war will be attacked.
>>30124175
China isn't the equal of the US from a conventional standpoint either though.
>>30116799
>This is primarily what I'm interested in
At least you admit you are data mining.
