What if the atomic bomb was never developed by the US, or it was delayed? How would Operation Downfall realistically play out?
>>30104330
tremendous casualties on both sides
>>30104336
Any grander insights for us?
Japan never wanted war in the first place and would have been willing to admit defeat at basically any point
The post war agenda was for a duo-polar world however, and so they have to drag wars out and destroy germany/japan/china/whatever
>>30104398
If they were so willing to accept defeat then why didn't they at Midway when the war first began to turn against them? Why the suicidal defenses of Okinawa, Iwo Jima, and the planned Kyushu?
>>30104382
not really, that really is what would have happened. Town by town, house by house, room by room.
>>30104429
Do you think the Soviets would try to jump in on it?
>>30104423
because america insisted on unconditional surrender and removal of their emperor
>>30104445
So why was there an abortive military coup against the Emperor to continue the war?
>>30104398
>Never want war
>Bomb bases unprovoked
>>30104330
I am just going to link some reading material because unfortunately discussion is a terrible way to learn something on /k/. It's long, but interesting and by far the most informative thing you are going to find.
http://www.history.army.mil/books/wwii/macarthur%20reports/macarthur%20v1/ch13.htm
>>30104398
nigger they literally were told that they will be nuked and every single city if theirs will be fire boobed
surrender ?
nope
they they were told second time to surrender or be nuked again
did they surrender?
nah
when finally emperor decided that its not worth
this much anal rape a god damn generals coup against him to fucking continue fighting war they cannot win
with a plans involving every single person on japan in to fight directly
and after coup failed then they finally managed to surrender
you are trying to defend most retarded political and social system this world ever seen
and revise history to make usa somehow a bad guys
>>30104585
If you want the abbreviated version though, the short answer is it would take a lot longer
The American plan was to invade Kyushu in November of 1945, secure Kagoshima and the southern portion of the island and use it as a staging ground for a encircling, decapitating attack against Tokyo in the spring of 1946. This is depicted in the thread opening image.
However this plan was a mockup made early in 1945 that assumed that the strength of Japanese forces on Kyushu would be only about 350,000 men. The Japanese were cognizant of the necessity of the Allied forces to establish a foothold and recognized Kyushu as the logical target. As such they overwhelmingly focused their defensive efforts on defending it.
By August of 1945 Allied intelligence estimated the strength of Japanese forces at about 545,000 men. The actual strength was about 900,000, which the Japanese achieved by redeploying much of their mainland troops in Korea and Manchuria.
Understanding that the viability of the invasion as written was dwindling, Truman authorized the atomic bombings.
This is not to say that America would not have been capable of invading the Japanese Home Isles of course, merely that Operation Downfall as written would likely not have worked. A massive naval invasion akin to D-Day would likely not have succeeded against Japan on Kyushu, as unlike Germany in Normandy they would have been able to utilize their full, if significantly weakened, strength against any deployment.This puts the viability of a decapitating strike like seizing Tokyo right out.
How a successful strategy would play out is of course speculation, but would almost certainly involve a lengthier period of siege and attrition before any massive naval invasions took place.
this was a good read OP
http://www.amazon.com/Burning-Mountain-Novel-Invasion-Japan/dp/015114978X
>>30104438
mos def, they were to staged their own invasion starting in manchuria and mongolia and ending up by invading mainland Japan.
>>30104445
thats why we removed him after we one right?
oh wait...
>underage B8 plz go
>>30105401
*won
fucking phone
>>30104330
>>>>>>>>>>His
>>30104382
I had a great uncle on the planning committee. Marine Colonel who had a metal plate in his head from WWI.
The minimum number tossed around was 8 Million. The Japanese people would effectively cease to exist as a culture and ethnicity. Some talk about repopulation afterwards with Japanese-Americans in a "loyal" society.
The bombs were a mercy.
>>30106414
Why were Hiroshima and Nagasaki chosen as the targets for the bombs?
>>30104864
Will check it out, thanks
>>30104788
JPN was in a far worse shape than Germany and could not have offered any meaningful resistance other than guerilla tactics. It doesn't matter if they had 900k or 9mil men. They did not have weapons to fight a modern war and no vehicles or rail to move troops. The most likely outcome would've been a repeat of Operation Compass where isolated pockets are defeated in detail by a much smaller force.
>>30107387
With Kyushu lacking paved roads in most areas, a single 2-lane unpaved highway, and a single railroad line, American vehicles would have a tough time getting around as well. The mountains would also favor a guerilla-style defense.
They still had heavy artillery- Japanese artillery was present in great numbers on both Iwo Jima and Okinawa after all- and would have used it to great effect against any amphibious assault.
Isolated pockets when you have 900,000 dedicated to stopping you at the beach? I don't think so.
>>30106451
Hiroshima because weather over tokyo on aug 6, not sure about nagasaki
>>30106451
One was a major industrial center, the other a significant rail yard.
>>30104330
We probably would have just continued fire bombing their cities while they starve and eventually they would give in.
>>30104330
Mass use of Bat-bombs and Napalm fueled hell through Japans cities.
Then shit ton of casualties in the invasion.
Japanese were ready to surrender before the bombs were dropped on the condition they get to keep the emperor. Since we demanded unconditional surrender this didnt happen. After the firebombing of tokyo the abombs were just another day for japan. What really made them surrender was soviet entry into the war. They were deathly afraid of commie takeover and seeing the emperor executed so they surrendered to us
>>30106451
>Hiroshima had:
>A large Army garrison
>A major military port
>One of the largest factories making Type 99 rifles
>The primary military COM hub in S.Japan
>The army HQ for S.Japan
>The Army Marine HQ
>Nagasaki had:
>Japan's premier military port
>Munitions factories
>Aircraft/engine/tank factories
>Major supply assembly area
>Both Nagasaki and Hiroshima were valid military targets.
>>30104398
>Never want war.
>Invade and butcher Manchuria
T-They wuz good boys who never did nuffin and just w-wanted oil because mean old America was keepin' them down!
>>30104438
Absolutely, even further compounding the problem. Worst case scenario you have the smoking remains of Japan split between the US and the Reds in the second most fun version of Korea.
>>30108000
>What really made them surrender was soviet entry into the war.
Its funny because it was a solid message to the Western allies to not trust the Soviets to keep non aggression treaties.
>>30108089
Wrong. The allies had signed a deal with the soviets that stipulated that they go to war with japan no more than three months after the german surrender.
>>30108000
That's not true at all. The reason the Japs were trying to avoid surrender was they wanted to keep their overseas holdings and the military junta ran the place. The emperor had wanted to surrender on basically any terms for 2 years, the military junta didn't give a rat's ass about the emperor. When he finally was able to speak his mind and order a surrender, half the military tried to stage a coup to capture him and kill his supporters so they could continue the war.
Soviet entry into the war dashed their hopes of retaining their overseas holdings, but they were not afraid of being occupied by the Reds.
>>30108098
Yes and?
>"No, its ok Mr. Stalin. Although we would really like you to help us fight Japan, we would feel bad if you broke your treaty with them."
Think about how stupid that sounds. It does not change that the Soviets had a non aggression treaty with Japan that was only signed a few years before.
>>30108000
What a waste of trips. That's wrong, the soviet invasion certainly played a significant role but it was the psychological shock of the A-bomb that spurred them to surrender.
>>30107844
Hiroshima was a planned target from the beginning . Kokura was originally chosen as the target for the 9th, but bad weather and obscuring smoke from Yahata which was fire-bombed a few days before, caused the flight to divert to Nagasaki.
Tokyo was never considered to be a target since it had been a pile of ash since May.
>>30108305
I'm sure the allies were absolutely mortified by the soviet decision to keep their promise to them. The allies WANTED the soviets to break their pact. Think about how stupid YOUR position sounds.
>>30104382
They minted so many Purple Heart medals in anticipation of the invasion that they're still working off that supply for wounded soldiers today.
>>30108355
Also, everybody knew Russia didn't have the capability for a mass amphibious invasion, at least on their own. They certainly would have been able to seize manchuria and Korea, though.
>>30108495
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/did-hiroshima-save-japan-soviet-occupation
The Soviets had already delivered a brutal asskicking to the Japanese in Manchuria.
If the U.S. didn't drop the bomb, the Soviets would have probably began day/night bombing raids all over Japan in anticipation of the worlds largest paratroop invasion.
>>30109072
1. With what bombers
2. With what cargo aircraft
3. With what paratroopers
4. With what supplies to sustain an invasion solely by air
>>30108069
Would there even be a north and South Korea if that were to happen? I'd imagine America would be too busy with Japan and the commies would just take all of Korea right?
>>30104330
>How would Operation Downfall realistically play out?
"Nanking" would have become part of Godwin's law.
>>30104330
At least one more US or other Allied soldier would have died in Operation Downfall than in our timeline.
Not worth it
