What would SPAIN look like today, if republicans had WON?
Post-communist poor as fuck
No one can say. It was a long time ago, the path it was going was winding and with crossroads everywhere, and there's no similar situation to compare it to.
It might have gone back to being just another capitalist republic, might have been a better cuba, might have been a stalinian hellhole, might have been a libertarian (in the european sense) federation.
In any case we would have learnt a lot from it.
>>471984
>In any case we would have learnt a lot from it.
Spainards disagree
>>471984
In terms of international politics, not much would change, as Spain would still have been a neutral party through the 20th century. The axis might have had a bit of a blow to their prestige and resources if their support for Franco did not result in victory. Might have resulted in a quicker loss during WWII.
After that though, it would depend on which faction dominated by the end. If the mainstay coalitions of the Republic stood, they'd likely shape up to be a fairly healthy social democratic or democratic socialist nation. If the anarchist won, we'd likely see better lives for the people of Spain... with whatever they have. Both East and West would likely be reluctant to cooperate with worker organizations alone, but if Franco theoretically failed to take them down, future efforts to do the same would likewise be halted. If the Stalinists won out, Spain would either be a Soviet puppet or go full Albanian-style Bunkerism.
There would have been a second bloodbath to decide who was going to control the country. Too many factions that were far too hostile towards each other in the Republican movement.
>>472050
I disagree, since history has shown that revolutionaries tend to lose their unity with success. Things can get especially rough when you have extremists among your ranks.
I think a second civil war between all the leftist factions would have commenced, probably ending in a dictatorship yet again.
It was impossible from the very start, at least with the republican forces alone. Maybe with a full scale intervention of other countries could have been possible, but then who knows what could have happened. Franco's side was the more united and the best organised, with the professional army in his side. Republicans had no chance to win, extremist like anarchists or communists were always too divided.
>>472050
> , as Spain would still have been a neutral party through the 20th century
What makes you say that ?
I think there's a good chance it would have sided with the allies. First because of the intervention of germany and italy in the civil war and the ideological opposition, and because it would have been a good way to improve relations with france and the UK and thus secure its future in europe without taking a lot of risk as they have france as a buffer.
And in this case, when blitzkrieg happens, the french army has the option to retreat behind the pyrreneans, which might change the course of the war.
And if the stalinists take over, it will be neutral at first and then jump into the fray in 41. The gernans will probably attack it preventively.
And if it stays neutral but is somewhat socialist, germans might invade anyway.
>>472094
History has shown that revolutionaries lose their unity with initial success, which is to be expected as after that their plans diverge, but history has not shown that this disunity leads to civil war, though brutality is the rule. Civil war is for independence fighters.
>>471984
Instead of the meh-ness that is post-Fascism, they'd be a post-communist shithole, maybe even divided up.
>>472082
>There would have been a second bloodbath to decide who was going to control the country. Too many factions that were far too hostile towards each other in the Republican movement.
I think you mean a 4th bloodbath.
37 was POUM
38 was CNT
>>472094
>history has shown that revolutionaries tend to lose their unity with success
The French, Iranians and Soviets proove otherwise. Revolutions usually unify the country, at least against outide threat.
>>471984
Not very different from today as it would have entered soviet sphere of influence and 10/10 wouls have been invaded by the fuhrer and then liberated/cucked into oblivion by the allies putting a pro western/usa president
>>472425
No, in each of these instances one faction took over and the rest were destroyed, by both physical and political means.
It wasn't civil war, but it was violent.
>>472001
>implying spain isnt worse than russia right now
Franco had the rural areas and some irrelevant cities. Pretty much all the industry and the major cities were in control of the left.
And then they lost it all because they couldn´t agree on fucking anything.
There´s one recorded episode where Franco arrived to a city and started the siege. The defense was, like pretty much everywhere, a mix of many different groups, mainly communists and anarchists. None of them wanted to listen to anyone else who wasn´t their own leaders, even if the order was "grab your gun and come defend the fucking city". But the leaders of one of the main groups was not available at the moment because whatever, so they didn´t go to defend just to spite the other group. It ended in both groups making barricades on the streets to shoot against each other. While the enemy was attacking the city.
Ideologically I would have supported the left, but I have to admit that I wouldn´t have liked to see what Spain could have become under such a shitty, fragmented rule.
Like Italy?
Is being a kingdom or a republic today really that big of a deal?
>>476153
Guess that depends on the country.
In Spain there´s a lot of controversy because some people say the king gives glamour and others say that he´s an useless money sink because all the royal family gets a fuckload of money from the treasury.
It´s more complicated. On one hand, we´re a democracy and people don´t want a guy with hereditary power. Specially not because, technically, he´s got the right to do anything he wants, even murder. Ain´t gonna happen, of course, but people don´t like that he has the legal right to ignore everyone else´s legal rights if he so decides.
The current president is a brainless hack. The king has a role as a diplomat and he´s significantly better prepared for anything involving human contact, so some people defend it because the lesser evil.
There´s more trouble because the past king was the one who was supposed to become the new dictator after Franco´s death, but instead he decided to transition into democracy. Many people who are against Monarchy supported him because of that. Now the king is his son, who hasn´t done anything of note and after a few years of being king still hasn´t done anything of note.
It´s also a political tool. Most young people don´t want monarchy, but most old people do. The right wing party has been defending the monarchy for a long time as a way to secure the vote of the elderly. This also means many young people are even more pissed off at the monarchy because they´re one of the causes the right can keep bullshitting around and still winning elections, because old people are poorly educated and very easy to manipulate with the media.
It´s complicated.
>>476196
Quality post thanks for the info Iberiabro
What do you think will happen to the monarchy given the crisis? How strong is republicanism?
There is a documentary about it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvnyGWj8GOU
>>475839
No it isn't.
>>476153
The difference is that Republicanism in Italy wasn't so much associated with left-wing politics as it is in Spain. If the Republicans had won the Civil War, Spain would become just another communist shithole.
>>476234
It´s very hard to know the actual strength of an idea in Spain because of how corrupt the media is. Whoever´s in the government controls it way more than our own laws allow them to, and journalism as a profession has lost most of its shine in the last decades. Before they wanted to inform, now they want to convince and if that means to make up all kind of bullshit, so they will. A thousand men on the streets protesting against something I defend? Nah, they were "a few protesters". Pictures, you say? Got you covered, m8. We can delete some of them.
This shit happens constantly by both sides, so fuck knows what percentage of the population actually thinks what. Generally, it seems that there´s a solid 7.000.000 people who strongly support monarchy, the Church, bullfighting and the right wing, plus many others who only support some of that stuff.
Spain is still kind of stuck in the past, in the civil war and the dictatorship. In the right vs. left dialogue. Most people understand politics as a us vs. them thing, and it´s usually quite homogeneous. If somebody supports bullfighting, you can also expect them to support monarchy and the Church, and to be against abortion and gay marriage. Otherwise, you´re the complete opposite. You´re somewhere in the middle? Then they´ll get confused first, and second they´ll ask you what party do you support. They´ll expect a clear answer: PP (right wing, Church, etc.), PSOE (left wing, TECHNICALLY the opposite. Nowadays they´re the right but painting themselves as the left. In fact, these both parties are pretty much identical everywhere else in Europe, but they put a lot of effort in looking different in Spain to monopolize the votes. Then there´s a few more parties, mainly THE COMMIES [who are actually less revolutionary than the king himself], the nationalistic ones [Catalonia and Basque, mostly], and in the last couple years Podemos, made of young people and kinda hard to classify, but they say left).
1
>>476366
>Podemos
>hard to classify
They are left-wing as fuck and should be completely discredited since they supported the disastrous Bolivarian Revolution in Venezuela and defend the same kind of policies for Spain.
But of course, since all the intelligentsia and artistic class is left-wing (you complain about the "corruption" of the media, but that's much worse), they are seen as respectable in a way that the National Front in France or the UKIP in Britain never will.
>>476366
Still, up until the last election (where there´s no majority and it´ll be all about pacts and shit. Maybe there´s a repeat in some months or something... I´m living abroad and it´s a little hard to follow) a week ago there had always been a very clear bipartidism between PP and PSOE.
So old people are still stuck in the past and defending "their team", people +40 had their childhood during the dictatorship and are still somewhat influenced by it, often holding weird or outright contradictory points of view between what free thought and common sense tells them and what they´ve been indoctrinated as children (specially in stuff regarding religion), and young people are sick of it all because the country news attention to the present and future.
So old people only vote PP/PSOE because that´s all they know and the media makes sure everything else is well demonized (Podemos [led by a guy called Pablo Iglesias] is the first big threat, having gone from non-existant to voted by a quarter of the voters in a few years. I remember one newspaper publishing a front page with a big "DRUGS FOUND IN PABLO IGLESIAS´ DISCO". The actual new is that they found drugs in a disco that´s in the same street where he lives. That´s all the relationship between the two). They also make sure the PP/PSOE don´t get into too much shit because of their corruption. I remember when the PP had to present the computer of the treasurer to a judge because of corruption charges. The fuckers handed in the computer without the hard disk, arguing that it was a non-essential part of the machine. They got away with it.
+40 years old people are brainwashed into the "PP/PSOE are the only parties worth voting" story and that´s all they vote, even though they´re constantly complaining that they´re brutally corrupt. "Why change? They´re all the same. Better the evil we already know".
2
>>476417
Some of the +40 (and elderly) vote IU & friends (known as THE COMMIES, even though they´re milder than an American beer).
Young people, heavily outnumbered by the other two groups and rather disinterested in the old narrative (alternative: not giving a single flying fuck about anything related to politics thanks to our faulty education system), can´t be bothered to try anymore. There were many protests and shit some years ago, but they got mostly laughed at. Followed by a reelection of the same guys everyone was complaining about because "why vote another one, they´re all the same". Most of us have lost the will to fight and those lucky ones to have the education or the money have left the country. I started a business in Germany, doing well so far. Maybe I´ll go back once the current generation of old people dies off, because nothing´s changing until then.
And that´s where I wanted to get: the only ones who really want change are the young people, and we´re both/either too few and/or too uninterested to do anything, so I really don´t see monarchy leaving anytime soon. I´m already very surprised that the PP didn´t get majority again. They´re still the most voted party, though. Followed by the PSOE, then Podemos.
Unless something very big happens (most likely completely unrelated to the recession), the monarchy won´t be leaving for the next decade or two, at the very minimum.
If you force me make a guess, I´d say about 40% of the people want monarchy, 40% don´t, and a 20% don´t really care. I´m kinda pulling numbers out of my ass by comparing different statistics from different media, so don´t quote me on it.
3
>>476396
I meant it in the sense that sometimes they say one thing and sometimes they say another.
I´m quite sad about them. I like that they´re new blood with new ideas and a general intention to change things and progress, but they´re full of all kind of nutjobs and fanatics (like that feminazi they have, the one obsessed with lesbians). A rebel with too many causes and no compromise.
I see here a mentality backlash. Up to this point we´ve have a very delimited politic: you´re this or you´re that, you´re with me or against me. Our Constitution is a fucking joke (>>476480 forgot to mention: this shit was voted by people who are mostly dead or old as fuck now, and it´s a wreck that you can understand as you want because it was made right after the dictatorship fell, in a tense climate of "let´s get to an agreement before get start killing each other again" where very different ideologies negotiated intensely to make up some common ground nobody really agreed with) and needs to be rewritten or, at the very least, updated. Everything is corrupted.
The left is more progressive and therefore it´s leading the next step: counterculture. Before everything was like that, so now we want the opposite. The problem is that there´s not a very clear "opposite" that we can rally under, which is why the Spanish left is more fragmented than the Balkans.
So I don´t like Podemos, but I think they´re a necessary step (not necessarily that they govern, I mean the ideas they defend in general) for the country to progress.
The next step would be a common ground meeting. Old people, the biggest fanatics, die off. +40 become old people, less fanatized. The right soothens up a little, opens up, accepts society is changing. The left moderates a little.
It´s kinda the same thing we see in the USA. We have the older people stuck in their ways and the right being very fucking right wing, and then we have the universities being massive hugboxes full of social justice warriors.
>>471984
>>472050
>>472094
Its really hard to say there are a lot of ifs. The same thing could be said about Franco's rise to power and the victory of the nationalist side. Sure the National front were more united through their sheer hatred of communist and leftist ideas but they weren't a homogeneous side. There were falangists, monarchists, catholic radicals, republican rightists and also fascists. The deaths of José Sanjurjo (who planned the coup) and José Antonio Primo de Rivera (the falangists leader and a really liked figure in the spanish right wing politic world) lead to Franco's smooth and quick ascension to power, without anyone to challenge him, and he would end up betraying a lot of his supporters in different ways (as for example not bringing the king back to Spain). So the difference was that the nationalist side had more focus on clearing Spain of leftist influence while the republican side had insane amounts of inner fightings (republicans vs communists, anarchists vs communists, stalinist communists vs. troskist communist, etc, etc) so probably would have ended up in a chaotic state as these two anons have stated >>472082 >>472399
After that who knows, maybe Hitler would have entered the south of Spain to gain access to Gibraltar and let the rest of Spain fight each other, maybe later the americans would try to get rid of communist influence in the country... who knows.
>>477935
Pretty much.
Same situation we have nowadays, the right is solidly united under the PP (aside from a few small, rather radical parties who barely get any votes) while the left is fragmented as hell with 2-4 major parties (depending who you consider left, which is another problem) and a bunch of small parties.
I get the feeling the country´s gonna shake in one or two decades, when the population starts shifting.
>>476299
>25% unemployment
>>479508
>1 million HIV cases
Taking plenty of international law courses over the past two years I've had a bit of contact with Spanish Erasmus students.
My uninformed opinion is that the left wing leaning ones (60%+) are a of Afghanistan, Falklands and Kosovo wars where for oil with a hint of "whatever noam chomsky quote got shared on fb in the last week"
With the right or center people just not speaking up at all. Mostly concerned with keeping up with the higher workload.
So if the quality of the people supporting the left/right now.
I'm inclined to think that republican Spain would have been a Venezuela without oil. With noam chomsky soundbites being played of gov. loudspeakers 24/7 if there isn't a strike at least, or a siesta, or some partied to hard and now wants the class moved due to not being able to handle their beer.
The Kosovo and Falklands wars where for oil where real topics some of the Spanish left leaning students picked for their paper/presentation.
Also what's up whit the Spanish having such a horrible pronunciation in English? The Copthic Egyptians in my classes speak better English and they only learned during the summer recess.
>>476196
I thought people liked the King? He seems to be a very competent head of state.
Besides, the next monarch is Leonor. Why would a Spanish even be Republican?
>>479637
Cause Spaniards are not pedos.
Cause kids grow.
>>479604
Erasmus from any country are possibly the worst representation of the country itself.
I´m not sure what you mean about those wars, looks like you´re missing a few words. Judging by the sentence at the end, sounds like that seems to be a major interest. Honestly, I´ve never heard anybody talk about that out of some History and Philosophy students. Again poor examples of the general population.
Most people don´t even know about Chomsky unless they´re into Linguistics or something somehow related.
Sounds like you´ve got quite a small sample size, or rather bad luck.
>horrible English
In English you stress the consonants and ignore the vocals, which average out to a weird "o/e" sound except for the tonic syllabus of the word. It doesn´t matter how poorly you pronounce the vocals, or even if you skip them, as long as you pronounce the consonants.
In Spanish you do the opposite. You can muffle the consonants as much as you want (in some regions it´s common to skip up to 1/4 of the consonants) as long as the vocals are clear.
Most English teachers are pretty fucking bad and speak horribly themselves, which means that we don´t have a good example to copy in class and that, of course, the teachers themselves don´t really know (or implement) that fucking difference. So we speak English like we speak Spanish, and it´s unintelligible because we skip and muzzle all the things we shouldn´t skip and muzzle, specially all those p/k/t sounds at the end of words (don´t, skip, cook...).
It´s just our accent, which happens to be kind of incompatible with English.
>>479637
As I said, some do, some don´t, some don´t care, and the media does everything it can to make it look like everybody does. The day when the previous one (Juan Carlos, the one who brought democracy) left and his son (Felipe, the one who hasn´t done anything but he´s kinda handsome and all the old women seem to be in love with him) got the crown there was a very small, very sad group of
>>479637
>>479659
Fucking character limit.
...people. It really looked sad, just the royal family and the guards and flags and shit and just a few handfuls of people attending the event.
There were much bigger groups outside saying that that was it, that the old king had a pass because democracy but there´s no point on going on and it´s time to become a Republic, etc. etc., but they were widely ignored by the media and most people don´t even know it happened.
Both kings, Juan Carlos and Felipe, have gotten a good education. At least a way better one than the politicians we have, many of which are fairly uneducated. They may be good, but still people aren´t happy that they get to govern just because they crawled out of a queen´s vagina. There´s also a lot of shit about some members of the family being brutally corrupt. And the rest have been covering it, or so it seems.
Also, we´ve having kings since the Romans got crushed and it´s been awful ever since. We´ve had no more than four or five good kings in all our History. People are a little tired of the same old bullshit.
Fun fact: as the future heir, Leonor is, by the old law, the supreme leader of the army.
I´m not completely sure she´s already the heir, though. IIRC, the law forbids a female from ruling and something still has to be changed for her to get on the throne.
Still better than being ruled by Froilan, I guess. That fucking kid is a trainwreck. He even shot his own foot not long ago with a hunting shotgun.
>>479659
I already figured that the Erasmus students probably weren't a representative sample of the "the Spaniard" I just thought they where a representative sample of the left/far left leaning Spaniard.
As to the wars they came up in a law of conflict class and I shit you not the Spanish girl insisted that NATO intervened in kosovo so it could have a base some 500 km from a proposed pipeline that wasn't even planned during the intervention.
The consonants/vocals would explain the bad spoken English. Thank you very much for clearing that out for me I've had that in the back of my head for years now.
>>479684
I would say Erasmus aren´t representative of the left/far left either. Spain is a country of old men, young people are a minority. Erasmus students are a representation of young (not too common) and relatively well educated (not too common either, dictatorships don´t really focus on that) people. So they´re a combination of two minorities of the left, while the left itself is about half the population of the country.
Erasmus students are also, for the most part, young people who haven´t even finished their degrees yet and are talking half out of their ass with the incomplete knowledge they have.
A good example of the disconnection between Erasmus and everyone else is what you´re saying about those wars. Fucking nobody in Spain has any idea what´s going on in those areas, other than Eastern Europe is a horrible political chaos where everyone hates everyone for some reason.
The far left is straight out communist or anarchist. Both movements got big masses of supporters decades ago. Anarchists are down to a few extremely small parties, but the main third party (until a week ago) was IU, who´s generally known as THE COMMIES despite being, as I said somewhere above, milder than an American beer. But they used to be hardcore communists and that´s what´s stuck.
I´m pretty sure the consonants/vocals twist is the main reason we suck so hard at speaking English. There´s a few other reasons such as being a big market and getting everything dubbed into Spanish, which keeps children away from being exposed to spoken English as much as other European countries. We also were the kings of the world some centuries ago and then we became an isolationist dictatorship. Neither of these things help to make people bother learning another language, so we didn´t become bilingual like other nations have been for decades. We´re on it now but, well, it´s the first generation that´s really taking English seriously. The new children are already doing better.
>>479682
From a guy who lives just next door and has the exact same political/demographical situation has you guys (Portugal), I'll recommend you to not ditch your monarchy at all.
Presidents are just as expensive and usually a lot more politically biased and generally incompetent in dealing with their one job: being the symbolic head of state and making a good figure with foreign relations.
I just wouldnt want the reinstatement of monarchy here because the potential royal family is the biggest of bunch of mediocre, goofy looking idiots I've ever seen. Plus, its most definitely a relic from the past since the monarchy got deposed more than a century ago.
Your current royal family on the other hand seems relatively decent, and it still works out, so no reason to get rid of them, IMO
>>479682
>I´m not completely sure she´s already the heir, though. IIRC, the law forbids a female from ruling and something still has to be changed for her to get on the throne.
In Spain, women can rule. Males have a preference, but chances are, if the Queen somehow had a son, they would probably change the constitution to absolute primogeniture.
>Still better than being ruled by Froilan, I guess. That fucking kid is a trainwreck. He even shot his own foot not long ago with a hunting shotgun.
What do you mean by "still better"? I thought Leonor was well liked?
Good.
>>479829
but m8, there is no need for a President. I'm spaniard and I want the King and his family gone, but not to put a President in his place. I want the Prime Minister to be the head of the state, kinda like in the USA.
>>479829
>Your current royal family on the other hand seems relatively decent
kek
they have been linked to corruption and the former King had (and has) a lover.
Anarchist paradise
>>476196
Does the monarchy make any money from tourism, like the brits do?
>>476196
>he´s an useless money sink because all the royal family gets a fuckload of money from the treasury
Only in a broken country could the expenses of a royal family be a major burden.
Either a corrupt provisional government or Leninist shit-hole. Any chance of anarcho-anything would just be a revolt in Barcelona with the military quickly crushing them
>>471984
See Yugoslavia.
Divided and poor
There would be a war with the anarchists. If the anarchists won, their shit couldn't have lasted long before the U.S. or USSR funded someone inside to rise up and take it over, and even if that didn't happen, everyone would sanction the shit out of Spain and they'd be in deep shit.
>>471984
Would have had a shit flag
>>471984
sunniest commie block on the planet
>>480032
>
In Spain, women can rule. Males have a preference, but chances are, if the Queen somehow had a son, they would probably change the constitution to absolute primogeniture.
You´re right. I don´t know why did I have in mind that she´s completely out of the question.
>What do you mean by "still better"? I thought Leonor was well liked?
She´s still somebody who´s having a fucking great life thanks to the tax money of many people who aren´t having such a good life and who will eventually get absolute legal power in the country just because she was born a princess, regardless of what anyone else might want. That´s what irks people the most about the monarchy.
>>479829
I have to admit admit they´re better than the scum we have for politicians. I think that´s the only reason the opposition isn´t really getting all that serious. In the end, if someone´s got to be our face to the world, better the guy with class.
Still there´s a lot of bullshit all around that don´t make it so clear. They have a very dirty history.
>>480115
Call it what you want, but the fact is that without the king we´d have Rajoy showing up in places where the king goes instead.
I´m against monarchy, but let´s admit it, everything is better than Rajoy. Or that new guy from the PSOE with that fake smile. Or Pablo. Or anyone else, really.
>>480342
The royal family owns a lot of stuff, including organizations and hotels and shit, so I guess yes.
>>480354
To be honest, we give more money to Morocco to help them grow mushrooms than we pay to the royal family. It´s not really a relevant amount, but it´s a big amount that´s going to have a family live a fucking great live for no other reason than "we wuz kings".
It´s not about the money, it´s about the reason they´re getting it. We could help many families in need with that money.
>>481882
We do. And the Republic flag some people want to get instead is no better.
The Cruz de Borgoña was the last cool one we had.
