So what happens in 30 years, when EU, Russia and China are burdened with swarms of old folks and very few taxpayers? I guess all mentioned economies fail, public services go to level of today's Etrirea, military capabilities are eroded beyond funny and we have three decedes of world economic depression due to three major world markets collapsing.
>>269909
Its 2015, we're importing millions of Muslims to fuck our women for us, the problem will be solved
>>269909
China is going full damage control about this now, but it is pretty much a lost cause.
It will probably open up the possibility of a few emerging markets to rise in importance even more, Brazil, India and the asian tigers come to mind.
But a demographic crisis is certain.
>>269909
Thank God for Mexicans.
>>269909
>Eritrea
Which has the best public sector in Africa
>>269909
R E S O U R C E W A R S
>>269909
>Thinking that taxes will support the boomers
No, it's production of real goods and services that matters. We'll be fine as long as we can produce what we need.
Yes, we're supposed to import millions of africans and middle-easterners to work for our old people. But it's not a replacement at all, besides europe's history is full of migrations and there's no autochthons.
>>269927
> China is going full damage control about this now, but it is pretty much a lost cause
What if every han and their mother (as long as she's still fertile) make a second child now that they have the right ?
>>269909
They should just raise the retirement age.
The problem is that people are living longer, but people are also healthier. The 65 retirement age is antiquated, people should work until 75-80.
Personally I'm never retiring. Sounds boring.
>>269985
>Be African
>Most of our young population living on welfare for no reason.
>mfw Europeans actually believe their getting anything other than our welfare queens.
>>269909
>So what happens in 30 years, when EU, Russia and China are burdened with swarms of old folks and very few taxpayers
They will find ways to make people work more, That, or like in portugal, subsidize couples who have kids. Another option is importing young workforce, which is a problem by itself now
>>269909
You know as much as people talk about America being at the end of her empire it is really funny that we are one the few powers right now with a stable demographic future. We do immigration right.
>>270052
Importing young people ad infinitum is a retarded idea. Europe's population isn't growing because it's too expensive to have children and it's too expensive to have children because it's overpopulated.
>Help, housing and food is so expensive most of our young people can't afford to raise children anymore!
>Good. Pump in more people. That should solve it.
>>270076
I would think it's mostly because they don't have the time nor the desire to make a family before they're 35.
>>270004
Too late now.
It would take 15 to 20 years for that have any mensurable effect.
And it wouldn't even fix all the demographic problems that the single child policy created, right now, China has a considerable larger number of males than females thanks to it.
China has fucked its demographic so hard because of this, there isn't any possible recovery fast enough to prevent the economic crisis it is going to cause.
They should have stopped the single child policy much sooner.
>>270206
Is there macroeconomical issues with sex unbalance ? It's problematic for the leftover males, but aside from that, 5% less women isn't very significant, or so it seems to me.
>>270264
When you take America with 320 million or, lets say, Brazil with 220 million. 5% isn't really that much.
But when you get China's 1.3 billion, it starts to make a difference.
Especially considering there is a lot of evidence to show that the bigger the excess of men in comparison to women, the bigger are the crime rates, violent or not, also alcoholism and drug abuse increase.
Also, it is considerable that a lot of these men will never have children, and every women would only have one children, who would mostly likely be male, now with the single child policy gone, this will change, but it won't be too drastic a change, it will probably only be felt on the second or third generation from now.
>>270141
They don't have time because they don't even own the small apartment they are living in.
It's not about the destruction of the nuclear family -somewhat due to over taxation, but because the modern economy is extremely competitive. You can't afford to take a break in your career because that would end your career since there's a thousand other candidates waiting to take your place. Housing is so expensive because there's more people than the infrastructure can accommodate and of course skyrocketing property values.
Most social problems would be fixed if you had a nett emigration.
>>270206
>China has a considerable larger number of males than females thanks to it.
I don't see how that matters. According to most evolutionary psychology studies only around 30% of males compared to 80% of females throughout history have reproduced anyway. Your male population is basically irrelevant for determining the next generation.
>>270321
Considering that the number of women in China is decreasing right now, and would continue to if China never changed to the two child policy, it would start to be alarming.
It is also been proven that an excess of males isn't healthy for a society.
The standard "more workers -> more industry -> more power" formular will drastically change in the coming decades.
Production will be completely automated. The "working class" is going to fully dissolve.
What you will still need is:
1) service personnel for the wealthy
2) innovation
Both is better provided by desperate immigrants than by a stable, complacant middle class.
>>269927
>China is going full damage control about this now, but it is pretty much a lost cause.
ANY DAY NOW
>>270386
How the fuck you think you can justify that last statement is beyond me..
So you have less jobs for your working class and somehow after being freed up from industry jobs they are now incapable of 1? In some fucked up twist of logic you imagine unemployment in the lower classes being solved by importing more lower class people to fill the few jobs that remain.
Innovation has historically been achieved by engineers and scientists educated at the best schools so again 2) is best met by Americans and Europeans themselves who continue to produce the most patents per capita by orders retaliative to third and second world countries with no innovation.
>>270421
Read the OP m8, this thread is about a rapidly shrinking population in the western world. If this wasn't the case immigration could indeed be a problem.
I can only talk from a European perspective:
to 1) Compared to America and the rest of the world native Europeans in retail and other service industries are extremely unfriendly and rarely ever do more than what is explicitly asked for. Immigrant workers in these industries tend to be more friendly and don't have that sense of entitlement.
to 2) Of course education is important. However, even more important is an entrepreneurial spirit which at least in Europe barely exists among the natives. Second generation immigrants are usually the most innovative, look at any IT startup here. For example Crytek is almost exklusively Turks.
>>270464
>to America and the rest of the world native Europeans in retail and other service industries are extremely unfriendly and rarely ever do more than what is explicitly asked for. Immigrant workers in these industries tend to be more friendly and don't have that sense of entitlement.
> 2) Of course education is important. However, even more important is an entrepreneurial spirit which at least in Europe barely exists among the natives. Second generation immigrants are usually the most innovative, look at any IT startup here. For example Crytek is almost exklusively Turks.
Pulling shit out of my ass: The post
>>270464
>Immigrant workers in these industries tend to be more friendly and don't have that sense of entitlement.
1/4 of Immigrant "workers" stay at home, leech of welfare and are a net drain on society by claiming benefits, increasing living costs, creating massive lines for housing, medical services, education, etc.
That's without bringing up the increase in crime and judicial costs as a result of crime. They are the most entitled strata in society.
>>270464
Right, but how is a shirking population in an overpopulated country a problem? It's not. Immigration exacerbates the real problem, which is overpopulation in the first place.
>Anecdotes
I'm not going to justify your racism with a response. You should know better.
>>270498
It would help if you gave some context to these graphs. Participation in what exactly?
>>270498
>>270524
I gave you a cultural explanation and you're throwing around labor force participation or unemployment rates. There are many reasons why immigrants tend to be single earner households and Scandinavians certainly are an extreme case of the opposite.
Also I'm not defending the way Europe allows migration directly into the social systems, but the solution isn't "less migration". It may not be good for the average tax payer but the rich certainly do profit from immigration for above mentioned reasons.
>>270537
Work force.
>>270524
We can solve that unemployment in the immigration population by importing more immigrates.
>>270464
how is 1) a relevant argument at all?
>>270540
Ah, thanks.
>>270539
>I gave you a cultural explanation
Based on absolutely nothing at all except your feelgood wish of how immigrants are somehow more polite or better than natives which is just not true unless you consider "polite" and "friendly" to have a 10x times higher chance of being robed, murder or raped in immigrant neighbourhoods.
>>270530
I literally wrote in the first sentence of my first post that a shrinking population in itself is NOT a problem.
I just tried to give an explanation for why our leaders seem to willingly replace the native population with a more diverse/foreign population.
>>270548
How is it not? Would you not care about how your servants treat you?
>>269909
George Friedman did a book on this.
He explains that low skilled immigrants will be a sought after commodity in the coming decades and that countries will literally be fighting over them, rather than fighting to keep them out.
Unless there are enormous break-throughs in robotics/A.I/technology we can't even conceive of yet.
>>270636
Can you refer me to some readings on that?
>>270653
George Friedman: The Next 100 Years
By no means do I agree with everything he says, but it's definitely worth a read.
>>269909
>30 years
Dude, you are too optimistic.
Dependency ratios are on the dangerous end of changing *now*.
>EU, Russia, and China
Try - the EU, all of Asia, all of North Africa, and the entire Western Hemisphere
Oh - and the Second Demographic Transition is *well* underway in Sub-Saharan Africa, too, so... yeah.
Hell, one of the elements behind the Recession was the lack of young families buying homes!
>What will it look like
here are some guesses
1) Land will decline in value, over all
2) Markets will have to dramatically shift focus to models based on a *shrinking* consumer base and decades of *contraction*
3) labor costs, especially for skilled trades, will go UP
4) The exception to 3 will be low-end tech jobs, which automation will eliminate
5) Welfare systems will have to be stripped down harshly or eliminated
6) Commodity prices will drop for decades
The hilarious thing are all the people thinking
A) 'Immigration will save us! We'll import workers!"
or
B) "Immigration will destroy us! We'll be swamped!"
Both are fools - birth rates are down and dropping hard EVERYWHERE. The migrant crises? Pfffft. So fucking what? They are coming from nations with TFRs barely above the EU and their children will have the same TFR as their French, etc. neighbors (i.e., not much of one).
By 2100 the population of the entire planet might be as low as 3 billion, less than half of today
>demographic momentum is a harsh mistress
Hell, I know a demographer that points to Italy, South China, and northern Japan and argues we *might* see a 2100 of just 1.5 billion people, 90% of whom are devout Catholics, Orthodox, and a smattering or Orthodox Jews and Mormons.
The future is going to be full of empty cities
>>269952
>Mexico
>TFR of 2.2, and dropping
Mexico ain't saving shit.
They have negative migration from the US *now*
>>270668
>Neo-PLC
>Neo-Ottomans
>Balkanization of Russia and China
>Neo-Japanese Empire
>WW3
What a meme fest
>>270052
>subsidize couples who have kids.
that isn't working in Portugal, Japan, Russia, Sweden, or any of the other countries trying it
The Second Demographic Transition isn't about money
>>270710
It's a buffet of predictions. Pick what suits your intuition. To be fair his prediction of a new Cold War and Russian territorial expansion into Eastern Europe is pretty much on the money so far (it was written just under a decade ago).
>>269909
do you know why pyramid schemes dont work
>>270206
>>270264
>>270321
Demographic Momentum - regardless of the number of men, TFR/demographic momentum is based on the number of women because
1) Only women can have children
2) Female fertility has a time limit
There are so few women in the 'fertile cohort' that even if they went Full Catholic it would take 3-5 generations to get back to where they need to be
China gambled on getting rich before they got old.
China lost
OP here.
Can you guys tell me more on consequences? If you know anything about it?
This guy >>270690 shaped things fairly well.
>>270690
What about the massive population growth expected (actually currently happening) in Sub-Saharan Africa? I remember seeing that the population was going to explode in the future, not decline.
>>270026
this is bait right? can you imagine a 75 year old driving a bus? bagging your groceries?
Some would be able to handle it, most would not.
>>270765
>can you imagine a 75 year old driving a bus? bagging your groceries?
At the very least they can work in daycare.
>>270771
How are you going to pay 20 old people caring for one baby?
>>270739
sub-saharan Africa is what professional demographers call 'fucking Hell'.
Here's an example - the CIA world fact book and UN listed their TFR as 9 all through 2000-20013
That is fucking huge.
Then a bunch of field researchers said 'wait a minute - that's not possible. We are counting children born in hospital and, well - no'
So they looked again and then Niger *fought them* to keep the official TFR *HIGH*.
Why?
The UN, etc. base a lot of developmental and medical aid based on TFRs so poor African nations artificially inflate it to get more cash.
The 'official' TFR of Niger is 7.0
The one reported by the CIA is 6.0 (their 'public estimate' is 6.5, if I remember correctly)
Best guess at the real TFR?
Maybe 4.0
sub-Saharan Africa is in the midst of the Demographic Transition that hit the rest of the world. South Africa and a number of other nations have close-to, at-, or even below-replacement TFRs already and continent wide TFRs are falling
>The articles about 'stalled transition' are usually based on the official numbers given to aid agencies
It is akin to the warning
>Iran is going to grow tremendously in the enxt generation!
Yeah - demographic momentum. But their TFR has sucked for too long - the population will crash right after.
Right now Japan in the lead car at the top of the hill in a roller coaster about to plunge over the edge and go screaming down. Niger is just the last car - still ascending, but about to plunge, too
>>270076
Not to mention that automation will make fuck ton of jobs simply obsolete in near future, even in highly trained professions as AI beats human doctors or lawyers. Outsourced jobs are starting to come back 1st world... it's just that those aren't jobs anymore.
>>270855
>children born in hospital
Most Africans aren't born in hospitals. There is now way to actually know what their growth. It's probably higher than we're estimating.
>>270894
No - the point was the official report of the number of children born in hospital was 3x-4x the reality.
UNICEF teams in remote villages would report the number of children they were meeting and it would be 1/2-1/5th the official estimates of the number of children in that village.
So unless there are a shit-ton of infants being born in the bush and hidden from view, the TFR is lower than the official estimate.
>>270909
Well, I actually in rural (South) African areas and almost every family here has 9-12 children. Fucking hell most teenagers have more than 2 before they turn 18.
I haven't seen the UNICEF report, but 9 sounds completely reasonable. I don't know what the true numbers, but I doubt any official sources can cover all billion people on this continent either, but there's no reason it can't be that high.
>>270690
>I am a massive retard and know nothing I'm talking about
> birth rates are down and dropping hard EVERYWHERE
Except that's not true at all. The world population is increasing steadily, only the West (with exceptions) has below replacement levels.
> They are coming from nations with TFRs barely above the EU
How does it feel to be an ignorant retard that can't even use google?
>By 2100 the population of the entire planet might be as low as 3 billion, less than half of today
Yep, confirmed for a massive retard.
I'm not sure I would invest in real estate in the near future for that reason. Imagine what will happen to the value of RE when those people start dying off.
It will probably be heaven for job seekers as business will get desperate to find qualified workers to replace the retired, but people will be expected to work much longer to compensate.
Wonder what's going to happen to the general stock market.
>>269909
>implying it's an issue whatsoever when 25% of young people are unemployed anyway
Labour matters less and less, capital more and more.
>>270690
>>271156
Now leave with your retarded pseudo intellectualism because we seriously don't need idiots saying stupid shit like that the population will drop by 80% in a 100 years.
>>271159
Japan is a glimpse into the future. The countryside is littered with near ghost towns due to the massive scale of urbanisation, and now even some cities have ever increasing pockets of dilapidated and abandoned housing. Japan's popuation has only just plateaued and is about to decline steeply. The question is whether or not it will ever stabilise.
>>271189
I don't think a decreasing population is a bad thing really. I just worry about the effects on the economy in the current system. And of course the impact on my retirement if I get to that point.
>>271189
Japan is an abnormality, it's the size of California but has more than 1/3 of the US population. Their population explosion was immense, more than doubling in 100 years despite losing millions in a war and almost a complete absence of large scale immigration.
It's going back to "normal" if anything and is not comparable with Europe at all.
>>270690
Immigrations' positive or adverse affects in the next 20 to 50 years are what matters most when making policies you cunt. "Oh but in a 100 years from now it won't matter"
Well neither will your life so why not off yourself?
Oh and if you haven't checked, immigrants have far greater fertility rates, which only drop IF they assimilate. Third worlder here, you're not getting the middle class non-breeding fags but rather the ghetto-loving zerg-rushing hordes.
>>271146
>>271156
>>271182
Translation
>"I don't know how demographic momentum works, I have no concept of how the media, etc. use the totally unrealistic 'max' estimates, and I can't be fucked to look any of this shit up"
FFS, even the UNITED NATIONS states that world population will be no more than 6 billion in 2100!
>>271234
>Their population explosion was immense, more than doubling in 100 years despite losing millions in a war and almost a complete absence of large scale immigration.
Lol, you think that's immense?
Egypt's population has grown from 3 million in the early 1800s to almost 90 million today.
>>271484
Trends change.
By 2100 we could have more efficient types of living spaces, food production, energy production and even of child bearing and rearing that make it a possibility to grow even past our currently visible limit.
>>271364
translation
>"I can't read"
TFR of iran?
below replacement
TFR of India?
Just above replacement and dropping
The Population growth analysis of the EU showed that even among high TFR immigrants, like Syrians (a TFR of a whopping THREE!!!!11!) their daughters already born as they arrived had a TFR of 2.2 and their native-born daughters had a TFR of 1.4
So, in short - you're badly wrong.
WITH higher TFRs in generation 1 and generation 1.5 and WITH the level of immigration the immigrant/immigrant descended population of Europe will "approach 10$ around the year 2075, and then decline unless there is a unforseen fertility change that cannot be predicted"
That's right, even with the Migrant Crisis in 50-60 years the 'zerg rush' might, MIGHT reach 10%
Read a fucking book, would ya'?
>>271484
>FFS LET ME PULL SHIT OUT OF MY ASS
Fuck off you retard.
>>271501
He's literally making shit up
>>271529
You're a massive retard, you can't even form a proper sentence, not only that you're also deliberately misinforming people or you're out right ignorant.
>>269927
Hope you're all ready for the first African power in centuries.
>>271501
>trends change
Listen, the match is really fucking clear. It is unstoppable. Why?
It's fucking math.
Let me give you an example
>Generation 1: Population 200; 100 women of child bearing age, TFR of 1.5 [that's Lebanon, Albania, and higher than most of Europe *and most of Asia*)
>Generation 2: Population 350 [gen 1 + gen 2]; 75 women of child bearing age; TFR of 1.5
>Generation 3: Population 425 [OMG! The growth! THE GROWTH!] [gens 1, 2, and 3]; 56 women of childbearing age
>"Hey! Fertility has been low for a few decades. Nah, let's worry about THAT GROWTH!!"
>Generation 4: 462 (1/2 of gen 1 and gens 2, 3, and 4); 42 women of childbearing age
>NOTE: we are about here. This is where the split begins
more
>>271618
If trends continue
>Generation 5: Population 334 (1/2 of gen 2 plus gens 3, 4, and 5); 32 women of child bearing age
Generation 6: Population 256; 24 women of child bearing age
Etc.
>>271618
>>271640
>let me pull shit out of my ass some more
>why would anyone sane look at actual sources or the actual numbers being provided here
>I'll just make up my own numbers and exclude everyone that contradicts me
>I don't even know what I'm talking about
see >>271536
see >>271553
see >>271182
see >>271156
>>270717
Neo-Mexico when?
>>271618
Trends change
>Generation 5: population 334; 32 women of child bearing age, *TFR leaps to 3!*
>Generation 6: Population 304; 48 women of child bearing age
Even if you magically doubled fertility the decline would still last.
And so far the the post Second Demographic Transition period once TFRs drop to 1.8 or so no one can increase fertility to replacement (2.1) let alone to 3. If,
*IF*
the world suddenly went to replacement fertility in all areas and stayed there we'd still have population decline.
>>271670
WE DON'T HAVE A POPULATION DECLINE YOU MOUTH BREATHING RETARD
THE WORLD POPULATION IS RISING AND IS PREDICTED TO KEEP RISING
>>271640
I recently checked my county's demographics. 5% of the population are females between 20 and 30, and there's 125 males per 100 females in that age bracket. The average age is about 50. And that's typical for my state.
Now ten thousands of uneducated male young Muslims flood into this to fix the mess, or so the government claims.
>>269909
Don't worry, the liberal traitors in charge who have left this trend to fate or celebrate it will be hanged any moment now. Any producer who has perpetuated the myth that modern civilized families consist of two kids and two homosexual parents will answer for his crimes against the nation. The holy anti-liberal alliance of communists (real ones, not Reddit liberals) and fascists will implement sufficient pro-family policy that has historically been proven effective.
>>271681
>muh global scope
what the fuck do you think you're doing you terrorist
>>271647
Keep posting that graphic, genius.
Tell me again how the declining fertility in Africa will magically overcome 40 years of sub-replacement fertility in Europe and Asia, 30 years of sub-replacement in North Africa and South American, and 20 years of sub-replacement in North America?
Did you even know what TFR means until you googled that image, you moron?
Did you know that in much of Africa a TFR of 3.0 is just replacement level?
You didn't?
Are yyou aware that because of sex-selective abortion in India their TFR needs to be 3.4 to be at replacement, when combined with their mortality rate?
You didn't?
That's right, you mook - China and India are facing inevitable population decline IN OUR LIFETIME.
do you really think a TFR of 6 in Niger (population 17 million, or 1 million less than the CITY of Cairo and not close to freaking New Delhi) is going to offset the reduction of population in either one of those nations when Niger has a mortality rate of Fuck You?
China is going to lose the equivalent of the entire population of the most fertile sub-Saharan nation *every five fucking years* between 2025 and 2050.
>b-b-but muh overpopulation
Demographers, real ones, were projecting inevitable population decline beginning no later than 2050 in 1970, if you paid attention.
>>269909
>>271501
This is the only thing we can hope for. And even if it turns out to be true, your economy will be smaller than it had to be.
>>271681
repeat after me
-every ten years the UN releases a population growth estimate; it is updated every 5
-Every estimate and every update *ever* and done the following
A) reduced the estimate of growth
B) reduced the estimate for peak population
C)projected peak population coming sooner
D) projected population decline beginning sooner
E) projected population decline to be more rapid.
Every fucking time. The actual population in 2000 was well under the "low" projection of 1980.
Guess what? the 2015 UN population projection calls for the population in 2100 to be 6 billion.
>>271724
it does not matter that the population of such or such country decreases when the country can bait foreigners into settling in. immigration will make those soon declining country as happy as they are now.
>>271691
WGAF?
TFR doesn't matter how many men their are - that is why China and India, with their high male:low female ratios are well and truly fucked
>>271751
How many foreigners do you plan to bait when most European societies have already reached 1/3 in comparison to the hosts? Don't forget the wide range of social problems that it has created and will continue to create.
>>271750
All species rise and fall. Humanity will be no exception.
>>271766
>Don't forget the wide range of social problems that it has created and will continue to create.
indeed, but people will accept foreigners when they will have no longer the choice.
>>271751
*sigh*
Where the fuck are those immigrants going to come FROM?
The Middle East?
No; their fertility is below replacement or close and/or dropping like a rock
Asia?
No, their fertility is below replacement and has been (thus, China is freaking out)
The Western hemisphere?
No, same reason
North Africa?
No
sub-saharan Africa?
Sure - for a generation or two, maybe.
But lots of that region is at or below replacement already and the ones with high fertility are lightly populated, comparatively.
Oh, and THEIR fertility is in decline, too!
Besides, even if, do you think Niger, Mali, etc. are going to generate enough people to staff Europe, Asia, Oceania, and the Western Hemisphere?!
>>271724
>I am a fucking idiot
>please feed me massive dicks
Look, retard, there's no point in discussing with you. You're writing like a 13 year old, claim the UN says the same, and then ignore actual UN reports >>271553, you ignore a fucking population pyramid >>271553 and actual fertility rates >>271647
>>271750
>Guess what? the 2015 UN population projection calls for the population in 2100 to be 6 billion.
>WATCH ME MAKE UP MORE SHIT AHAHA FEED ME DICKS
The actual 2015 population projection is right HERE >>271536
http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/publications/files/key_findings_wpp_2015.pdf
>>271775
Are you proposing this as a solution?
>>271770
HE IS FULL OF SHIT, WHY DO YOU KEEP LISTENING TO RETARDS; THE ACTUAL FUCKING 2015 UN REPORT WAS POSTED SEVERAL TIMES IN THIS VERY THREAD
So, what is the main cause of all this?
>>271785
Whatever numbers are on it, it doesn't matter. Human civilization will collapse before 2100.
>>271770
Sure. I mean, it isn't the end of the world. Heck, as the population decline *people will be a lot better off*.
Think about it - your labor is worth more, commodities and land are cheaper, etc.
If you are among the very few that have great-grand children, they'll be set!
>>271750
>the 2015 UN population projection calls for the population in 2100 to be 6 billion.
What?
The 2015 UN population projection is 11 billion. It's actually a bit higher than in the previous years.
http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/publications/files/key_findings_wpp_2015.pdf
>>271794
Except economic growth will plummet and society will collapse due to not enough tax payers to support entitlement commitments. Road warrior situation.
>>271778
>The Middle East?
>No; their fertility is below replacement or close and/or dropping like a rock
Again making up shit are we?
I don't even see the point in replying to you, you keep making up shit.
>>271786
>Capitalism destroying the traditional family by forcing females to engage full time in the market
>Cost of children
>A big portion of society has problems settling down against their will especially those crazy Japs
>Pure Ideology. If you ask people they will only want 1-2 kids just because and anything more is for rednecks and societies with high birthrates are backwards.
>Parading various non-reproductive lifestyles
>>271778
Every estimate, report and the current data show a population increase everywhere except Europe. Then there's you.
>>271779
>hurr, I'll keep posting shit I don't understand
Try page 13 of this
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf
And keep in mind - historically the UN's "low" estimate has been a little high compared to reality.
Next time? Don't link to the media kit's summary for reporters.
>for extra laughs, examine the report's assumptions on fertility
>>271785
maybe if you type in all caps AND yell at the screen you'll be more convincing
Govern the waves of change
Guide the critical choices
Purvey the great plan
For the culmination of a single purpose
Conserve the integrity of the new era
>>269927
Why do I keep hearing wildly conflicting theories about China? Some people say they're going to surpass the United States to become a new world power, and some say they're going to completely collapse. Is there any consensus among experts?
>>271829
>I'll keep being full of shit like the retard I Am
>Next time? Don't link to the media kit's summary for reporters.
You don't like the actual report though, no, instead you focus on some wild-bat "low" estimates that show a population decrease despite the population increasing.
Not only that but you claim this the UN "low" estimate (pop decrease) has been a little high compared to reality when the reality is the population has been growing for the past 100 years so never at any point was there a population decrease. Then you go onwards and start making up shit like the middle east having below replacement levels.
In short, you're full of shit again.
>>271795
That is the summary for the media kit, kid.
Read the full report and keep in mind that the UN's "low" estimate has traditionally been the most accurate.
Of, look at the full report on population to 2300, the summaries of which are posted here
>>271829
The excellent book "beyond six billion" categorizes the errors and shows the trend for the UN to over-estimation in both fertility and growth very well, and it is 15 years old.
Several studies have been done since, showing the same things.
The book 'Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?' by a secular demographer has the most accurate numbers available, probably
>>271864
>Is there any consensus among experts?
Yes.
>US experts
CHINA IS COLLAPSING AS WE SPEAK
>rest of the world
CHINA WILL PUT AN END TO GLOBAL US TERRORISM ANY MOMENT NOW
>>271864
Basically because China has massive amounts of state interference on big, top heavy projects, such as population management.
In contrast to say, India, where literally no on on earth knows what the fuck is going on, and therefor has muddling, baseline performance in most fields. They could do a lot better, but they're not fucking up catastrophically.
China, on the otherhand, is a very planned socieity. In some ways, more then any of the totalitarian states of the 20th century, because of the tools at their disposal.
Demography is an example of this, because we're seeing a huge population collapse, after a huge population expansion, both planned by the central government.
So basically, you estimate comes down to how well you think the Chinese Government can and does know how to plan a society. If you think they can and do, you're likely to think they'll wildly succeed.
If you think they can't or don't, you're waiting for them to fuck up so badly.
China is a society of extremes, so the only thing that the experts can agree upon is that the predictions can't meet in the middle.
>>271890
>the population has been growing for the past 100 years so never at any point was there a population decrease.
translation
>it will always be like it was, forever and ever
>making up shit like the middle east having below replacement levels.
Now you're just lying - what I said was
>their fertility is below replacement or close and/or dropping like a rock
A number of Middle Eastern nations are below replacement, especially with their mortality
The rest are close and dropping OR dropping fast.
I mean, your reading comprehension is obviously terrible and you use the emotions rather than logic, but COME ONE!
>>271890
The way I see it, you're both just playing fuck games with statistics. Data do not speak for themselves. You're both talking about topics that the best demographers in the world still aren't sure of.
Also, some countries in the "Middle East" as you people like to call it, do have below replacement levels.
>>271864
>Why do I keep hearing wildly conflicting theories about China?
It depends on what kind of data they're looking at. Official statistics from the Beijing party office say
>they're going to surpass the United States to become a new world power
Official statistics of individual key factors, that are mentioned somewhere on page 2342 of a report, where nobody reads more than the summary, coupled with an understanding of how the Chinese economy and political class operate, coupled with actually looking at China inside of China usually lead to
>they're going to completely collapse
The second is usually better backed, better argued and describes what's actually happening. The first is what you read in major news outlets that have strict deadlines and don't give a fuck about the truth so much as about being cost effective and putting out a volume of fluff articles to keep their readers busy.
>>271913
Mortality has no impact on replacement, unless that of young women, which is not important in the middle east.
>>271913
Literally damage control: the post
>says to look at the UN reports for proof
>look at the UN reports
>they prove him wrong
>says those UN reports are wrong now
Also, kek at you trying to imply anything about reading comprehension when the format of your post is that of a 12 year old WoW enthusiasts on blizzard forums.
>>271944
I'm literally looking at reports and actual statistics, he's being full of shit an making them up on the spot or drawing his own conclusions and ignoring the conclusions drawn by actual people working on these statistics and reports.
He's using reports to prove himself right and at the same time calling the very same reports faulty.
>>269921
Check THIS
2015 get
>>272017
FUUUCK
Isn't it fun to just find data that fits some goofy theory and then use that data to "prove" the crazy theory? Isn't this what every government does? Aren't humans all delusional? How long will the madness go on?
