What were the chances of an Japanese invasion of Australia during World War 2 actually succeeding?
Pic related it the Japanese advances in Southeast Asia and the Southwest of the pacific
Buckley's.
>>341760
>What were the chances of an Japanese invasion of Australia during World War 2 actually succeeding?
0
First off, everything important in Australia isn't up north like the little arrows show, it's in the southeast, where the concentrations of population and industry are.
Secondly, they never fully secured the Solomons and the southern parts of New Guniea. Invasions are more than just landing troops in once; you have to land them, secure ports, ferry in supplies and more troops, and subdue resistance.
Australia had multiple divisions, and more could be shipped in far away from Japanese strike routes. To invade, you'd probably need to muster up 100,000 IJA at least, maybe more.
Supplying that kind of horde that far away from their own nodes of support was quite simply beyond the capabilities of the Japanese, espeically when you consider that the Americans and British are likely going to fight back. Remember how much trouble the British had getting slow, vulnerable cargo ships through on time in the Atlantic? The Americans and British, even at their nadir in the Pacific War, were vastly stronger vis a vis Japan than Germany ever was vis a vis Great Britain.
>>341760
>What were the chances of an Japanese invasion of Australia during World War 2
nil
>What were the chances of an Japanese invasion of Australia during World War 2 actually succeeding?
nil
>>341786
Thanks, this'll settle a few arguments.
>>341760
Japan was stuck in a quagmire fighting China, and the rivalry between the army and navy left really little in the way of cooperation for a invasion. Japan really should of made peace with Nationalist China when they had chance, they could of easily have replaced Europe domination in the Pacific in the post war they did not get involved.
>>341786
As if they needed more headaches, Australia would have been a nightmare for Guerrilla warfare.
I think they considered it for a day or two before scrapping the plans because of the ridiculous amount of effort it would take for so little gain.
>>341833
When did they have the chance? 1931?
>>341833
Would Nationalist China have accepted a peace that left the Japanese satisfied at any point?
>>341849
Did the Japanese government have the coherency to be 'satisfied' at any point?
>>341853
Possibly. If you count Amaterasu evaporating every non Japanese person in the world, and populating the entire world with Pure Yamato Spirit Japanese peasants for the Army clique to rape to death as a credible end to the war in China… possibly.
>>341853
Well I don't mean completely satisfied but I mean gains substantial enough to justify the war. A few key cities along the coast or something like that.
>>341878
No. The Army cliques would not be satisfied with any peace that Nationalist China could satisfy itself to make.
>>341878
Yeah, but my point is that the Japanese government didn't make decisions to go to war or make peace by collective decision making, but by individual initiative.
The Japanese government had planned for peace in 1931, 1937 and every year of minor expansion in between.
Even if someone managed to sign such a treaty with the Nationalists, he would basically have to also convince every single colonel in the Japanese Army, and every Captain in the navy to be happy with it.
Japan was, in a lot of ways, a failed state in the 30s.
>>341849
Chiang was damned if he did and damned if he didn't. Let's say he accepts some form of peace treaty that concedes part of china proper to Japan. His legitimacy has evaporated overnight.
The only peace he would have accepted is a return to pre 1937 borders and I don't really see Japan agreeing to that ever.
