How likely is it that all cars will be self-driving by 2030?
>>54727538
None at all.
unlikely. however many will have certain autonomous features available to turn on and off at will
>>54727538
About as likely as India being a superpower by 2020
>>54727566
>implying you'll be able to turn them off
Moderately unlikely because you used the word "all."
You need to wait until the generation buying cars has known self-driving vehicles for their whole lives. Then it becomes a foregone conclusion. I expect a good amount of them out there by 2020, so I'd push the estimate for "all cars" to 2040.
>>54727538
where we are going, we wont need roads. after the nuclear blast wipe them out, of course
>>54727538
>>54727577
on track.
No chance in hell.
Auto-pilot cars won't take over until the streets are replaced with a rail system for the cars to ride on.
We can barely afford to maintain or current roads so there's no fucking way we're going to be building new one anytime soon.
>>54727538
my guess is that 100% of the cars made in the year 2025 will have the autonomous feature available
>>54727738
Maybe not fully autonomous, but:
>A coalition of 20 automakers have agreed with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety to make collision avoidance systems with automatic emergency braking standard on almost all new cars by September 2022; heavy-duty trucks have until September 2025.
>>54727538
I hope it's very likely, dying in traffic is way too likely now and I want to stay alive. I even make mistakes myself but I'm not the only one, so my mistakes aren't the only thing that's endangering me. I don't trust other drivers at all and I want them to have no control over their vehicles.
All cars? Nope, maybe like 50% at best. The rest will still drive cars because they'll want to feel like a special snowflake or be too poor to afford the budget self driving cars.
We are already training them to drive cars as we speak, only a matter of time before they get their driver's license.
>>54727841
>or be too poor to afford the budget self driving cars.
I'm hoping the eventual direction is fleets of self-driving cars that are called like automatic taxis, not owned privately. Those might be economical for lots of people like those whose driving is primarily a commute to work. Self-driving carpool.
>>54727538
lolno, I would like to maintain control of my own vehicle, thanks.
>>54727629
they're designing auto-pilot cars to work with our current roads, not rail systems. if we wanted to have rail systems as roads we wouldn't really have much trouble actually programming the cars, which is the challenge right now. the google car probably has 100M+ lines of code by now.
>>54727872
>Self-driving carpool.
half the reason people own private cars just to drive to work is so that they can leave the minute they're ready and not have to share a ride with anyone else. The people that are willing to do that ride transit.
>>54728247
The people who are willing *and able* to do that ride transit. The power of the car in suburbia/urban sprawl is that roads are far more plentiful than adequate public transportation systems. I'd argue that those people don't own cars because they choose the convenience, but that they simply have no other reasonable alternative.
>all cars
None.
We still have people driving stick and V8s.
Some people like driving for the sake of driving, not just as a means of transport.
>>54728846
Do you think they'll face higher insurance rates or other pressures that push them into buying autonomous?
>>54727538
maybe
>>54729267
>>54728846
this, or it will eventually be made illegal for public safety once a human driver is provably more likely to get into an accident than an autonomous one
at minimum it will be illegal on the highways and areas where autonomous cars and trucks dominate traffic, because a human driver will fuck up any attempt at cooperative autonomous arrangement and convoying.
