I'm really bad at math, and I want to know: If I have an 80% chance of getting x, and there were 84 unique instances of x, how many times would I have to try for x to get all 84? The way I did it was:
84*1.8 = 151.2 tries
Is this right?
I'll add that this isn't homework... I'm trying to determine how long it's going to take to get the rest of the common reqs in Halo 5 from bronze packs. I already know I can make ~10000 req points an hour, and each bronze pack is 1000 req points. There seems to be roughly an 80% chance of getting a common from a bronze pack, and with 84 commons left, I'm just wondering how many packs I have to open. If I did the math right, it would take just over 15 hours. I'm likely wrong though because as I said, I suck at math... can anyone point me in the right direction, or at least to the appropriate formula for this kind of problem?
And yes, I know all of this is a waste of time, but I'm not doing anything else between sleep and work, so yeah...
>>17163498
more clarification: I got 15+ hours from 151.2 tries * 1000 req points / the 10000 req points per hour
I can't be fucked explaining it to you so I'm just going to give you the answer. It's 105, assuming you don't get repeats.
>>17163498
Assuming that it's impossible to get duplicates, it's actually only around 105 tries.
If you can get duplicates, then you're in for the fucking long haul, buddy.
>>17163498
shit. I messed up. Bronze packs cost 1250. And I'm not asking for the entire problem. That would be silly to ask anyone to do all that. I just need to make sure the number of tries is right...
>>17163513
Thankfully, Halo 5 did something right with their micro transactions. Unlike BO3, you can't get duplicates of permanent unlocks.
>>17163517
Then it's something like
10000 shekels per hour /1250 shekels per pack = 8 packs per hour
84 prizes * (1/0.8 packs per prize) = 105 packs
105 packs / 8 packs per hour = 13.125 hours, assuming your 80% estimate is right
>>17163513
>>17163515
So with my adjustment to 105 tries and 1250 points, it should take ~13.125 hours. Not bad at all.
I did (105*1250)/10000 = 13.125 hours
This is probably also wrong...
Also fun fact for anyone interested in Halo 5 (don't be if you actually want armor, but it's fun in general): It currently takes over $800 dollars (could be a little more or less but it's close to this so it's still way too much) to get every permanent unlock, which is still better than BO3's potentially infinite price tag for its unlocks... but still. I miss being able to do challenges/level up to unlock armor. I want ONE piece of armor, but it could theoretically be the last permanent I unlock...
>>17163523
I was typing so much that I didn't see your post... but thank you. And the 80% is just what seems to be the popular answer for people who have supposedly taken the time to only unlock those and log it. I'm not sure how accurate it is myself. I'll be sure to log it as I go though.
>>17163524
and it'll also take less time. I'm being an idiot because I totally forgot about the fact that each pack comes with an assortment of temporary cards, and you can sell those back for points. I won't even get started on all that because the number of cards and points for each card vary per pack... So basically < 13.125 hours is a safe assumption I guess.
Anyway, thank you again for helping and putting up with all this!
>>17163532
No problem. Even though I posted the answer, I think it's best not to think too hard about the probability while you're grinding. Makes you feel cheated when things don't go ideally.
But if knowing how long you're (probably) gonna be at it makes you feel better, then more power to you.
Good luck with your grind, anon.
>>17163551
Thank you!
